NETHERLANDS EREDIVISIE
--.--.---- --:--
Abe Lenstra Stadion
Referee: J. Kooij
Heerenveen
Match Timeline
Ajax
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
26'
Jorthy Mokio
Ajax
🟨
58'
Lucas Rosa
Ajax
🔄
68'
D. Klaassen ↔ Y. Regeer
Ajax
🔄
69'
S. Berghuis ↔ R. Bounida
Ajax
🟨
70'
Youri Regeer
Ajax
🔄
75'
V. Zagaritis ↔ H. Petrov
Heerenveen
🔄
79'
S. Steur ↔ K. Dolberg
Ajax
🔄
83'
R. Meerveld ↔ L. Brouwers
Heerenveen
🔄
83'
L. Oyen ↔ E. Gurbuz
Heerenveen
🔄
83'
D. Vente ↔ L. Nordas
Heerenveen
🔄
85'
M. Godts ↔ M. Carrizo
Ajax

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 73.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
73.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Heerenveen Win 61.7%
Draw 0%
Ajax Win 38.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Heerenveen1.64
Ajax1.67
Recent Form (Last 5)
Heerenveen Heerenveen
WWDLW
57 GF / 53 GA
Ajax Ajax
WLDWL
70 GF / 62 GA
Key Stats
1.73
Average Goals Scored
1.71
1.61
Average Goals Conceded
1.51
22
BTTS Yes
27
24
Over 2.5
26
5.33
Shots on Goal
5.39

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Heerenveen Heerenveen 33 matches
Ajax Ajax 41 matches
Heerenveen Statistic Ajax
14 Wins 16
8 Draws 13
11 Losses 12
57 Goals For 70
53 Goals Against 62
1.73 Avg Goals Scored 1.71
1.61 Avg Goals Conceded 1.51
22 BTTS Yes 27
32 Over 1.5 40
24 Over 2.5 26
13 Over 3.5 17
4 Clean Sheets 9
7 Failed To Score 6
5.33 Shots On Goal 5.39
14.91 Total Shots 13.63
5.42 Corners 4.8
50.9% Ball Possession 55.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Ajax. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Heerenveen expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Ajax in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ajax having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Heerenveen Analysis

From their first 33 matches, Heerenveen have collected 50 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. The record of 14 wins, 8 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 57:53 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. Trenskow (12 goals), D. Vente (7 goals), L. Nordas (6 goals), with creative support from Joris van Overeem (9 assists), J. Trenskow (5 assists), L. Brouwers (4 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses fits a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Ajax Analysis

Placed 5 with 55 points from 33 outings, Ajax continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 14 wins, 13 draws, and 6 losses, while the 62:41 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on M. Godts (17 goals), W. Weghorst (8 goals), D. Klaassen (6 goals), with creative support from M. Godts (12 assists), O. Gloukh (6 assists), Rayane Bounida (5 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 5 wins, 9 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Heerenveen won 1 times, Ajax won 12 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:43 from Heerenveen's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Heerenveen 4-2-3-1 / Ajax 4-3-3
Missing players: Heerenveen 5, Ajax 4
H2H summary: Heerenveen wins 1, draws 2, Ajax wins 12
Stats
Heerenveen Heerenveen
Ajax Ajax
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
11
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
6
10 Corner Kicks 6
9 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 0
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 23
6 Shots on Goal 6
6 Shots off Goal 11
4 Blocked Shots 6
10 Shots insidebox 13
6 Shots outsidebox 10
6 Goalkeeper Saves 4
561 Total passes 500
474 Passes accurate 432
1.61 expected_goals 1.86
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Heerenveen
Formation
Ajax
B. Klaverboer
B. Klaverboer
O. Braude
O. Braude
S. Kersten
S. Kersten
M. Willemsen
M. Willemsen
V. Zagaritis
V. Zagaritis
M. Linday
M. Linday
J. van Overeem
J. van Overeem
J. Trenskow
J. Trenskow
R. Meerveld
R. Meerveld
L. Oyen
L. Oyen
D. Vente
D. Vente
M. Paes
M. Paes
A. Gaaei
A. Gaaei
K. Itakura
K. Itakura
Y. Baas
Y. Baas
L. Rosa
L. Rosa
S. Steur
S. Steur
J. Mokio
J. Mokio
D. Klaassen
D. Klaassen
S. Berghuis
S. Berghuis
W. Weghorst
W. Weghorst
M. Godts
M. Godts
Heerenveen 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
22
B. Klaverboer
G
45
O. Braude
D
4
S. Kersten
D
3
M. Willemsen
D
19
V. Zagaritis
↓ 75'
D
16
M. Linday
M
6
J. van Overeem
M
20
J. Trenskow
M
10
R. Meerveld
↓ 83'
M
11
L. Oyen
↓ 83'
M
9
D. Vente
↓ 83'
F
Substitutes
44
A. Noppert
G
31
N. Bakker
G
8
L. Brouwers
↑ 83'
M
28
H. Petrov
↑ 75'
D
17
N. Hopland
D
15
M. Egbring
D
36
N. Courtens
M
38
I. Mulder
D
35
I. Ahmed
M
50
E. Gurbuz
↑ 83'
F
18
L. Nordas
↑ 83'
F
40
C. Bonevacia
F
Ajax 4-3-3
Starting XI
26
M. Paes
G
3
A. Gaaei
D
4
K. Itakura
D
15
Y. Baas
D
2
L. Rosa
🟨 58'
D
48
S. Steur
↓ 79'
M
24
J. Mokio
🟨 26'
M
18
D. Klaassen
↓ 68'
M
23
S. Berghuis
↓ 69'
F
25
W. Weghorst
F
11
M. Godts
↓ 85'
F
Substitutes
52
P. Reverson
G
58
V. van der Velde
G
9
K. Dolberg
↑ 79'
F
32
T. Tomiyasu
D
43
R. Bounida
↑ 69'
F
45
R. van de Pavert
D
30
A. Bouwman
D
50
M. Muzungu
D
6
Y. Regeer
↑ 68' 🟨 70'
M
10
O. Gloukh
M
7
M. Carrizo
↑ 85'
F
19
D. Konadu
F
Last matches: Heerenveen
21.05.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Utrecht
2
3
L
11.05.26
Ere
Heerenveen
NAC Breda
0
2
L
03.05.26
Ere
Heerenveen
FC Volendam
2
0
W
25.04.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Fortuna Sittard
2
1
W
12.04.26
Ere
Heerenveen
AZ Alkmaar
0
3
L
05.04.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Heracles
4
1
W
22.03.26
Ere
Heerenveen
NEC Nijmegen
2
2
D
14.03.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Telstar
3
0
W
07.03.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Excelsior
2
1
W
28.02.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
2
1
W
21.02.26
Ere
Heerenveen
PSV Eindhoven
1
3
L
15.02.26
Ere
Heerenveen
PEC Zwolle
4
2
W
11.02.26
Ere
Heerenveen
GO Ahead Eagles
3
1
W
07.02.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Twente
0
5
L
01.02.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Utrecht
1
1
D
18.01.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Groningen
0
2
L
11.01.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Feyenoord
2
2
D
20.12.25
Ere
Heerenveen
Heracles
3
0
W
14.12.25
Ere
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
3
0
W
06.12.25
Ere
Heerenveen
PSV Eindhoven
0
2
L
Last matches: Ajax
24.05.26
Ere
Ajax
Utrecht
0
0
D
21.05.26
Ere
Ajax
Groningen
2
0
W
10.05.26
Ere
Ajax
Utrecht
1
2
L
02.05.26
Ere
Ajax
PSV Eindhoven
2
2
D
25.04.26
Ere
Ajax
NAC Breda
2
0
W
16.04.26
Fri
Ajax
Twente
0
1
L
11.04.26
Ere
Ajax
Heracles
3
0
W
04.04.26
Ere
Ajax
Twente
1
2
L
25.03.26
Fri
Ajax
FC Volendam
2
2
D
22.03.26
Ere
Ajax
Feyenoord
1
1
D
14.03.26
Ere
Ajax
Sparta Rotterdam
4
0
W
07.03.26
Ere
Ajax
Groningen
1
3
L
01.03.26
Ere
Ajax
PEC Zwolle
0
0
D
21.02.26
Ere
Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
1
1
D
14.02.26
Ere
Ajax
Fortuna Sittard
4
1
W
08.02.26
Ere
Ajax
AZ Alkmaar
1
1
D
01.02.26
Ere
Ajax
Excelsior
2
2
D
28.01.26
UEF
Ajax
Olympiakos Piraeus
1
2
L
24.01.26
Ere
Ajax
FC Volendam
2
0
W
20.01.26
UEF
Ajax
Villarreal
2
1
W
H2H: Heerenveen vs Ajax
17.05.26
H2H
Heerenveen
Ajax
0
0
D
01.11.25
H2H
Ajax
Heerenveen
1
1
D
19.01.25
H2H
Heerenveen
Ajax
0
2
L
11.08.24
H2H
Ajax
Heerenveen
1
0
L
11.02.24
H2H
Heerenveen
Ajax
3
2
W
05.11.23
H2H
Ajax
Heerenveen
4
1
L
12.03.23
H2H
Heerenveen
Ajax
2
4
L
10.09.22
H2H
Ajax
Heerenveen
5
0
L
11.05.22
H2H
Ajax
Heerenveen
5
0
L
16.10.21
H2H
Heerenveen
Ajax
0
2
L
04.04.21
H2H
Heerenveen
Ajax
1
2
L
03.03.21
H2H
Heerenveen
Ajax
0
3
L
18.10.20
H2H
Ajax
Heerenveen
5
1
L
07.03.20
H2H
Heerenveen
Ajax
1
3
L
14.09.19
H2H
Ajax
Heerenveen
4
1
L
Last matches: Heerenveen
25.04.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Fortuna Sittard
2
1
W
05.04.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Heracles
4
1
W
14.03.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Telstar
3
0
W
28.02.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
2
1
W
15.02.26
Ere
Heerenveen
PEC Zwolle
4
2
W
01.02.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Utrecht
1
1
D
18.01.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Groningen
0
2
L
11.01.26
Ere
Heerenveen
Feyenoord
2
2
D
06.12.25
Ere
Heerenveen
PSV Eindhoven
0
2
L
23.11.25
Ere
Heerenveen
AZ Alkmaar
3
1
W
24.10.25
Ere
Heerenveen
NAC Breda
3
3
D
04.10.25
Ere
Heerenveen
Excelsior
2
1
W
21.09.25
Ere
Heerenveen
NEC Nijmegen
3
2
W
30.08.25
Ere
Heerenveen
GO Ahead Eagles
2
2
D
24.08.25
Ere
Heerenveen
Twente
1
2
L
09.08.25
Ere
Heerenveen
FC Volendam
1
1
D
H2H at home: Heerenveen
17.05.26
H2H
Heerenveen
Ajax
0
0
D
19.01.25
H2H
Heerenveen
Ajax
0
2
L
11.02.24
H2H
Heerenveen
Ajax
3
2
W
12.03.23
H2H
Heerenveen
Ajax
2
4
L
16.10.21
H2H
Heerenveen
Ajax
0
2
L
04.04.21
H2H
Heerenveen
Ajax
1
2
L
03.03.21
H2H
Heerenveen
Ajax
0
3
L
07.03.20
H2H
Heerenveen
Ajax
1
3
L
Last matches: Ajax
25.04.26
Ere
Ajax
NAC Breda
2
0
W
11.04.26
Ere
Ajax
Heracles
3
0
W
22.03.26
Ere
Ajax
Feyenoord
1
1
D
07.03.26
Ere
Ajax
Groningen
1
3
L
01.03.26
Ere
Ajax
PEC Zwolle
0
0
D
08.02.26
Ere
Ajax
AZ Alkmaar
1
1
D
01.02.26
Ere
Ajax
Excelsior
2
2
D
20.01.26
UEF
Ajax
Villarreal
2
1
W
11.01.26
Ere
Ajax
Telstar
3
2
W
20.12.25
Ere
Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
2
2
D
10.12.25
UEF
Ajax
Qarabag
4
2
W
06.12.25
Ere
Ajax
Fortuna Sittard
3
1
W
09.11.25
Ere
Ajax
Utrecht
1
2
L
26.10.25
Ere
Ajax
Twente
3
2
W
22.10.25
UEF
Ajax
Chelsea
1
5
L
04.10.25
Ere
Ajax
Sparta Rotterdam
3
3
D
30.09.25
UEF
Ajax
Marseille
0
4
L
21.09.25
Ere
Ajax
PSV Eindhoven
2
2
D
30.08.25
Ere
Ajax
FC Volendam
1
1
D
17.08.25
Ere
Ajax
GO Ahead Eagles
2
2
D
H2H away: Ajax
17.05.26
H2H
Heerenveen
Ajax
0
0
D
19.01.25
H2H
Heerenveen
Ajax
0
2
W
11.02.24
H2H
Heerenveen
Ajax
3
2
L
12.03.23
H2H
Heerenveen
Ajax
2
4
W
16.10.21
H2H
Heerenveen
Ajax
0
2
W
04.04.21
H2H
Heerenveen
Ajax
1
2
W
03.03.21
H2H
Heerenveen
Ajax
0
3
W
07.03.20
H2H
Heerenveen
Ajax
1
3
W

Standings

Eredivisie
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 27 3 4 101:45 56 84
W W D W W
2 34 19 8 7 70:44 26 65
W D W W D
3 34 16 11 7 77:53 24 59
W L D D D
4 34 15 13 6 59:40 19 58
L W D D W
5
Ajax Away
34 14 14 6 62:41 21 56
D L D W W
6 34 15 8 11 55:42 13 53
W W W L W
7 34 14 10 10 58:51 7 52
D D D D W
8 34 14 9 11 57:53 4 51
D L W W L
9 34 14 6 14 49:45 4 48
W W L L D
10 34 12 7 15 40:62 -22 43
L L D L L
11 34 11 6 17 49:63 -14 39
L W L L D
12 34 8 14 12 54:53 1 38
L L D D D
13 34 10 8 16 43:56 -13 38
W D W W D
14 34 9 10 15 49:55 -6 37
W W D W L
15 34 9 10 15 44:71 -27 37
L L W L D
16 34 8 8 18 35:55 -20 32
L D L W L
17 34 6 11 17 35:58 -23 29
D W L L D
18 34 5 4 25 35:85 -50 19
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Eerste Divisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie

Missing Players

Heerenveen 5 missing
-
L. Smans
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
A. van Axel Dongen
Missing Fixture Illness
OUT
-
A. Noppert
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
M. Rivera
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
N. Hopland
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
Ajax 4 missing
-
V. Jaros
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
O. Zinchenko
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
K. Fitz-Jim
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
O. Wijndal
Questionable Injury
OUT