ECUADOR LIGA PRO
19.09.2026 21:30
Referee: A. Cajas

Guayaquil City FC vs Leones del Norte Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 65.5%
Odds 1.28
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 2.37
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
65.5%
1.28
BTTS Yes
82.5%
2.00
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
2.37
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.4%
1.38
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Guayaquil City FC Win 44.6%
Draw 20.9%
Leones del Norte Win 34.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Guayaquil City FC1.08
Leones del Norte1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Guayaquil City FC Guayaquil City FC
WWDLW
36 GF / 40 GA
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
WLDWL
31 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.09
Average Goals Scored
1.03
1.21
Average Goals Conceded
1.07
17
BTTS Yes
14
14
Over 2.5
10
3.4
Shots on Goal
3.97

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Guayaquil City FC Guayaquil City FC 33 matches
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte 30 matches
Guayaquil City FC Statistic Leones del Norte
11 Wins 10
9 Draws 9
13 Losses 11
36 Goals For 31
40 Goals Against 32
1.09 Avg Goals Scored 1.03
1.21 Avg Goals Conceded 1.07
17 BTTS Yes 14
18 Over 1.5 21
14 Over 2.5 10
8 Over 3.5 3
9 Clean Sheets 10
11 Failed To Score 8
3.4 Shots On Goal 3.97
8.63 Total Shots 12.57
2.93 Corners 4.17
53.5% Ball Possession 47.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Leones del Norte. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Leones del Norte arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Guayaquil City FC expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Leones del Norte in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Leones del Norte having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Guayaquil City FC Analysis

From their first 30 matches, Guayaquil City FC have collected 39 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Their overall return of 10 wins, 9 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 33:36 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by E. Mero (11 goals), D. Díaz (4 goals), D. Dorregaray (4 goals), with creative support from J. Ayovi (5 assists), E. Mero (3 assists), D. Díaz (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Leones del Norte Analysis

Leones del Norte sit 8 with 39 points after 30 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 10 wins, 9 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 31:32, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Juan Luis Anangonó León (6 goals), D. Pazmiño (3 goals), C. Solano (3 goals), with creative support from R. Arroyo (3 assists), D. Pazmiño (2 assists), O. Pepinos (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Guayaquil City FC won 1 times, Leones del Norte won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:4 from Guayaquil City FC's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.1%)
Predicted formations: Guayaquil City FC 4-4-2 / Leones del Norte 5-3-2
H2H summary: Guayaquil City FC wins 1, draws 3, Leones del Norte wins 1

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
11 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 36
L W D W L
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs