BRAZIL SERIE D
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.6%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Guaporé Win 68.6%
Draw 4.1%
Luverdense Win 27.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Guaporé1.43
Luverdense1.09
Recent Form (Last 5)
Guaporé Guaporé
WWDLW
23 GF / 13 GA
Luverdense Luverdense
WLDWL
15 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.77
Average Goals Scored
1.15
1
Average Goals Conceded
0.92
6
BTTS Yes
6
6
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Guaporé Guaporé 13 matches
Luverdense Luverdense 13 matches
Guaporé Statistic Luverdense
7 Wins 6
4 Draws 4
2 Losses 3
23 Goals For 15
13 Goals Against 12
1.77 Avg Goals Scored 1.15
1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.92
6 BTTS Yes 6
8 Over 1.5 8
6 Over 2.5 5
6 Over 3.5 2
6 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Luverdense have the edge after taking the first leg 1-0, leaving Guaporé needing to respond to a 1-goal deficit. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Luverdense. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Guaporé arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 22 points compared to Luverdense in 2 on 15, which underlines the gap in season consistency. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Luverdense having the stronger overall control.

Guaporé Analysis

Guaporé come into this tie placed 1 in their league with 22 points from 10 matches. With 6 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses plus a goal ratio of 19:9, they bring good form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on their main attacking players, while defensively they have been very solid. At home, the return of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Luverdense Analysis

Luverdense come into this tie placed 2 in their league with 15 points from 10 matches. With 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses plus a goal ratio of 11:10, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on their main attacking players, while defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
Last matches: Guaporé
04.07.26
Ser
Guaporé
Luverdense
0
1
L
28.06.26
Ser
Guaporé
Monte Roraima
2
0
W
20.06.26
Ser
Guaporé
Monte Roraima
2
3
L
14.06.26
Ser
Guaporé
Independência
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
Guaporé
Araguaína
3
2
W
23.05.26
Ser
Guaporé
Humaitá
4
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Guaporé
Porto Velho
0
0
D
09.05.26
Ser
Guaporé
Galvez
1
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Guaporé
Galvez
3
3
D
25.04.26
Ser
Guaporé
Porto Velho
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Guaporé
Humaitá
3
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Guaporé
Araguaína
1
1
D
04.04.26
Ser
Guaporé
Independência
1
0
W
Last matches: Luverdense
04.07.26
Ser
Luverdense
Guaporé
1
0
W
28.06.26
Ser
Luverdense
Ceilândia
1
1
D
20.06.26
Ser
Luverdense
Ceilândia
2
1
W
07.06.26
Ser
Luverdense
Inhumas
4
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Brasiliense
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Aparecidense
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Primavera MG
0
1
L
09.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Gama
1
2
L
02.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Gama
0
4
L
25.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Primavera MG
1
1
D
18.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Aparecidense
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Brasiliense
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Inhumas
2
1
W
09.08.25
Ser
Luverdense
Rio Branco ES
0
3
L
02.08.25
Ser
Luverdense
Rio Branco ES
0
0
D
26.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Goiânia
1
0
W
19.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Goianésia
1
1
D
12.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Mixto
0
0
D
05.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Ceilândia
0
1
L
28.06.25
Ser
Luverdense
Capital Brasilia
2
1
W
Last matches: Guaporé
28.06.26
Ser
Guaporé
Monte Roraima
2
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Guaporé
Araguaína
3
2
W
09.05.26
Ser
Guaporé
Galvez
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Guaporé
Porto Velho
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Guaporé
Humaitá
3
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Guaporé
Independência
1
0
W
Last matches: Luverdense
20.06.26
Ser
Luverdense
Ceilândia
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Brasiliense
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Primavera MG
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Gama
0
4
L
18.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Aparecidense
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Inhumas
2
1
W
09.08.25
Ser
Luverdense
Rio Branco ES
0
3
L
19.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Goianésia
1
1
D
05.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Ceilândia
0
1
L
14.06.25
Ser
Luverdense
Porto Velho
0
0
D
31.05.25
Ser
Luverdense
Aparecidense
1
4
L
18.05.25
Ser
Luverdense
Capital Brasilia
0
2
L
03.05.25
Ser
Luverdense
Mixto
1
0
W
19.04.25
Ser
Luverdense
Goiânia
1
0
W

Standings

Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)