NETHERLANDS EREDIVISIE
10.05.2026 14:45
Euroborg
Referee: A. Bos
Groningen
Match Timeline
NEC Nijmegen
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
44'
Tika de Jonge
Groningen
45'
M. Rente · Assist: Y. Taha
Groningen
51'
T. Land · Assist: Y. Taha
Groningen
🔄
60'
E. Dasa ↔ B. Onal
NEC Nijmegen
🔄
60'
B. Nuytinck ↔ Danilo Pereira
NEC Nijmegen
🔄
60'
P. Sandler ↔ B. Pereira
NEC Nijmegen
🟨
66'
Bryan Linssen
NEC Nijmegen
🔄
69'
D. van der Werff ↔ W. Prins
Groningen
🔄
69'
Y. Taha ↔ T. Hernes
Groningen
🔄
71'
T. Chery ↔ K. Ogawa
NEC Nijmegen
🔄
71'
B. Linssen ↔ Y. El Kachati
NEC Nijmegen
76'
D. Nejasmic · Assist: S. Ouaissa
NEC Nijmegen
🔄
82'
T. Land ↔ R. Metu
Groningen
VAR
84'
Başar Önal
NEC Nijmegen
🟨
90+4'
Thijmen Blokzijl
Groningen

Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 54.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 60.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
54.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
60.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Groningen Win 31.8%
Draw 13.5%
NEC Nijmegen Win 54.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Groningen1.47
NEC Nijmegen1.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
Groningen Groningen
WWDLW
45 GF / 43 GA
NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen
WLDWL
74 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
1.41
Average Goals Scored
2.31
1.34
Average Goals Conceded
1.56
17
BTTS Yes
26
17
Over 2.5
23
5.78
Shots on Goal
6.72

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Groningen Groningen 32 matches
NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 32 matches
Groningen Statistic NEC Nijmegen
12 Wins 15
6 Draws 11
14 Losses 6
45 Goals For 74
43 Goals Against 50
1.41 Avg Goals Scored 2.31
1.34 Avg Goals Conceded 1.56
17 BTTS Yes 26
28 Over 1.5 31
17 Over 2.5 23
8 Over 3.5 19
10 Clean Sheets 5
7 Failed To Score 1
5.78 Shots On Goal 6.72
16.03 Total Shots 16.59
6.31 Corners 5.91
50.9% Ball Possession 56.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Groningen expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and NEC Nijmegen in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward NEC Nijmegen having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors NEC Nijmegen. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Groningen Analysis

Groningen sit 10 with 42 points after 32 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 6 draws, and 14 losses, while the 45:43 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Thom van Bergen (9 goals), B. Willumsson (6 goals), Y. Taha (5 goals), with creative support from Y. Taha (7 assists), Thom van Bergen (4 assists), M. Rente (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

NEC Nijmegen Analysis

Placed 3 with 56 points from 32 outings, NEC Nijmegen continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 15 wins, 11 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 74:50 goal balance, points toward poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their attacking threat comes through B. Linssen (11 goals), T. Chery (10 goals), K. Ogawa (8 goals), with creative support from B. Linssen (7 assists), Kodai Sano (7 assists), T. Chery (6 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 7 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Groningen won 4 times, NEC Nijmegen won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:27 from Groningen's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.5%)
Predicted formations: Groningen 4-2-3-1 / NEC Nijmegen 3-4-1-2
Missing players: Groningen 3, NEC Nijmegen 3
H2H summary: Groningen wins 4, draws 5, NEC Nijmegen wins 6

Standings

Eredivisie
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 27 3 4 101:45 56 84
W W D W W
2 34 19 8 7 70:44 26 65
W D W W D
3 34 16 11 7 77:53 24 59
W L D D D
4 34 15 13 6 59:40 19 58
L W D D W
5 34 14 14 6 62:41 21 56
D L D W W
6 34 15 8 11 55:42 13 53
W W W L W
7 34 14 10 10 58:51 7 52
D D D D W
8 34 14 9 11 57:53 4 51
D L W W L
9 34 14 6 14 49:45 4 48
W W L L D
10 34 12 7 15 40:62 -22 43
L L D L L
11 34 11 6 17 49:63 -14 39
L W L L D
12 34 8 14 12 54:53 1 38
L L D D D
13 34 10 8 16 43:56 -13 38
W D W W D
14 34 9 10 15 49:55 -6 37
W W D W L
15 34 9 10 15 44:71 -27 37
L L W L D
16 34 8 8 18 35:55 -20 32
L D L W L
17 34 6 11 17 35:58 -23 29
D W L L D
18 34 5 4 25 35:85 -50 19
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Eerste Divisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie