LATVIA › VIRSLIGA
15.05.2026 15:00
Referee: V. Mordatenko
Grobiņa
Match Timeline
Tukums
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
1'
A. Puzirevskis · Assist: M. Sidorovs
Grobiņa
⚽
11'
A. Kholod · Assist: M. Sidorovs
Grobiņa
⚽
13'
Leoni
Tukums
🔄
35'
Leoni ↔ R. Deruzinskis
Tukums
⚽
45'
R. Deruzinskis
Tukums
🔄
46'
A. Molotkovs ↔ J. Krautmanis
Grobiņa
🔄
46'
D. Sirbu ↔ I. Matyushenko
Grobiņa
🟨
53'
K. Rupeiks
Grobiņa
🟨
58'
J. Krautmanis
Grobiņa
🔄
61'
A. Kholod ↔ D. Dobrecovs
Grobiņa
🟨
62'
M. Derkach
Tukums
⚽
64'
R. Deruzinskis
Grobiņa
🟨
67'
G. Kluskins
Grobiņa
🟨
68'
E. Oloko
Tukums
🟨
68'
M. Sidorovs
Grobiņa
🔄
69'
R. Melkis ↔ K. Klavins
Tukums
🔄
69'
B. Samoilovs ↔ J. Toba
Tukums
🔄
70'
M. Derkach ↔ D. Valmiers
Tukums
🔄
82'
O. Rascevskis ↔ M. Fjodorovs
Grobiņa
🔄
82'
M. Sidorovs ↔ H. Yamada
Grobiņa
🔄
83'
S. Shibata ↔ R. Baumanis
Tukums
⚽
90'
E. Oloko · Assist: M. Stals
Tukums

Grobiņa vs Tukums Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 59%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 36.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
59%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
26%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
36.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Grobiņa Win 11.7%
Draw 29.3%
Tukums Win 59%
Expected Goals (xG)
Grobiņa1.27
Tukums1.79
Recent Form (Last 5)
Grobiņa Grobiņa
WWDLW
20 GF / 30 GA
Tukums Tukums
WLDWL
29 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.05
Average Goals Scored
1.93
1.58
Average Goals Conceded
1.6
11
BTTS Yes
14
6
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Grobiņa Grobiņa 19 matches
Tukums Tukums 15 matches
Grobiņa Statistic Tukums
4 Wins 2
8 Draws 8
7 Losses 5
20 Goals For 29
30 Goals Against 24
1.05 Avg Goals Scored 1.93
1.58 Avg Goals Conceded 1.6
11 BTTS Yes 14
14 Over 1.5 15
6 Over 2.5 11
4 Over 3.5 6
3 Clean Sheets 1
6 Failed To Score 0
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Tukums's more proactive style and Grobiņa's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Tukums. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Tukums having the stronger overall control.

Grobiņa Analysis

From their first 12 matches, Grobiņa have collected 11 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. The record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 6:18 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Puzirevskis (3 goals), A. Kholod (1 goals), D. Druzinins (1 goals), with creative support from A. Puzirevskis (1 assists), R. Baravykas (1 assists), D. Dobrecovs (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Tukums Analysis

Tukums are currently 6 in the standings with 12 points from 12 matches. The record of 2 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 24:18 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through E. Oloko (11 goals), R. Deruzinskis (4 goals), Leoni (3 goals), with creative support from B. Samoilovs (6 assists), Anmanis Kaspars (2 assists), R. Baumanis (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Grobiņa won 5 times, Tukums won 8 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:33 from Grobiņa's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.47 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (88.3%)
Predicted formations: Grobiņa 4-4-2 / Tukums 3-5-2
H2H summary: Grobiņa wins 5, draws 2, Tukums wins 8

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 23 5 2 71:22 49 74
D W D W D
2 31 22 7 2 86:30 56 73
W W D D L
3 31 18 7 6 49:30 19 61
D W D W D
4 31 12 7 12 41:43 -2 43
D D D W L
5 31 10 9 12 35:35 0 39
D L D L D
6 30 10 5 15 29:40 -11 35
L L W W D
7 31 8 8 15 32:49 -17 32
L D L W W
8 31 5 11 15 21:52 -31 26
D D L W L
9 31 5 9 17 44:61 -17 24
D L W L L
10 31 4 6 21 30:76 -46 18
W L D L L