BRAZIL › SERIE A

11.10.2026 20:30

Gremio

1 - 1

Internacional

Arena do Grêmio

Referee: Rodrigo Jose Pereira de Lima

Gremio

Match Timeline

Internacional

0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'

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Gremio vs Internacional Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2

Home Win

Probability 58.1%

Odds 3.02

BTTS

Yes

Probability 78.8%

Odds 1.95

Over / Under 2.5

Over 2.5

Probability 70.3%

Odds 2.37

All Markets

Market	Option	Probability	Odds	Stats & Analysis
1X2	Home Win	58.1%	3.02	▥
BTTS	Yes	78.8%	1.95	▥
Over / Under 2.5	Over 2.5	70.3%	2.37	▥
Corners O/U	Over 7.5 Corners	73.9%	1.23	▥
HT / FT	Home / Home	-	4.75	▥
Correct Score	2-1	-	11.00	▥

Probability Distribution

Gremio Win 58.1%

Draw 13.9%

Internacional Win 28%

Expected Goals (xG)

Gremio1.21

Internacional1.2

Recent Form (Last 5)

Gremio

WWDLW

37 GF / 43 GA

Internacional

WLDWL

32 GF / 37 GA

Key Stats

1.16

Average Goals Scored

1.1

1.34

Average Goals Conceded

1.28

BTTS Yes

Over 2.5

3.72

Shots on Goal

4.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gremio 32 matches

Internacional 29 matches

Gremio	Statistic	Internacional
9	Wins	7
9	Draws	10
14	Losses	12
37	Goals For	32
43	Goals Against	37
1.16	Avg Goals Scored	1.1
1.34	Avg Goals Conceded	1.28
20	BTTS Yes	17
24	Over 1.5	21
16	Over 2.5	12
6	Over 3.5	7
6	Clean Sheets	6
10	Failed To Score	9
3.72	Shots On Goal	4.38
11.52	Total Shots	14.72
4.1	Corners	5.97
49%	Ball Possession	47.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Internacional. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gremio expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Internacional in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Internacional having the stronger overall control.

Gremio Analysis

Gremio approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 29 points from 28 matches. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 8 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 30:38 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Carlos Vinícius (9 goals), C. Pavón (2 goals), Gustavo Martins (2 goals), with creative support from C. Pavón (4 assists), F. Amuzu (3 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points to a very strong split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Internacional Analysis

Internacional approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 18 with 28 points from 28 matches. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 10 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 30:36 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on J. Carbonero (7 goals), A. Bernabéi (4 goals), Alan Patrick (4 goals), with creative support from J. Carbonero (4 assists), Alerrandro (3 assists), Vitinho (3 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Gremio won 4 times, Internacional won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:22 from Gremio's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win

BTTS: Yes

Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5

Highest model probability: 12 (86.1%)

Predicted formations: Gremio 3-4-3 / Internacional 4-1-4-1

Missing players: Gremio 5, Internacional 4

H2H summary: Gremio wins 4, draws 5, Internacional wins 6

Standings

Serie A

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	PTS	Form
1	Flamengo	29	18	7	4	57:25	32	61	D W W W W
2	Palmeiras	29	17	9	3	48:21	27	60	W D W D D
3	Fluminense	29	14	9	6	48:36	12	51	W W L W D
4	Atletico Paranaense	29	14	8	7	45:34	11	50	D W D L D
5	Cruzeiro	29	14	6	9	44:40	4	48	W W L W L
6	Bahia	29	12	10	7	43:36	7	46	L L W W W
7	Atletico-MG	29	12	8	9	39:34	5	44	D W D W L
8	Santos	29	11	9	9	45:43	2	42	D W W W W
9	Sao Paulo	30	11	6	13	35:35	0	39	W L L W L
10	Coritiba	29	10	8	11	37:47	-10	38	L L D L W
11	RB Bragantino	29	10	7	12	34:33	1	37	D L L D L
12	Vitoria	30	10	6	14	33:44	-11	36	L W L D W
13	Botafogo	29	9	8	12	42:47	-5	35	L L W D D
14	Vasco DA Gama	29	9	8	12	36:42	-6	35	D W W W L
15	Mirassol	29	8	9	12	34:43	-9	33	D W D W L
16	Corinthians	29	8	8	13	30:34	-4	32	L L L L L
17	Internacional Away	29	7	10	12	32:37	-5	31	W L W L L
18	Gremio Home	29	7	9	13	31:39	-8	30	D D L L L
19	Remo	30	5	10	15	33:48	-15	25	D D L L L
20	Chapecoense-sc	28	3	9	16	29:57	-28	18	L D L W L

Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)

Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)

Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)

Relegation - Serie B