BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Arena do Grêmio
Referee: L. Torezin
Gremio
Match Timeline
Corinthians
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
7'
Gabriel Mec
Gremio
🟨
41'
Wagner Leonardo
Gremio
🟨
44'
Rodrigo Garro
Corinthians
45'
Andre
Corinthians
🔄
46'
Marcos Rocha ↔ Joao Pedro
Gremio
🔄
53'
Tete ↔ J. Enamorado
Gremio
🔄
62'
M. Braithwaite ↔ F. Amuzu
Gremio
65'
Andre · Assist: Yuri Alberto
Corinthians
67'
Kaio Cesar · Assist: Yuri Alberto
Corinthians
🟨
68'
Kaio César
Corinthians
🟨
69'
José Enamorado
Gremio
🟥
75'
Thiago Beltrame
Gremio
🔄
79'
Carlos Vinicius ↔ G. Menegon
Gremio
🔄
80'
Gabriel Mec ↔ Andre Henrique
Gremio
🔄
82'
Raniele ↔ Allan
Corinthians
🔄
88'
Kaio Cesar ↔ Z. Labyad
Corinthians
🔄
88'
Andre ↔ A. Carrillo
Corinthians
🟨
90+2'
Viery
Gremio
🔄
90+4'
R. Garro ↔ M. Pereira
Corinthians
🔄
90+4'
Breno Bidon ↔ Dieguinho
Corinthians

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
35%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
77.5%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Gremio Win 63.7%
Draw 15.9%
Corinthians Win 20.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gremio1.06
Corinthians1.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gremio Gremio
WWDLW
19 GF / 20 GA
Corinthians Corinthians
WLDWL
23 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.12
Average Goals Scored
1
1.18
Average Goals Conceded
0.96
9
BTTS Yes
10
6
Over 2.5
5
3.65
Shots on Goal
3.65

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gremio Gremio 17 matches
Corinthians Corinthians 23 matches
Gremio Statistic Corinthians
5 Wins 8
6 Draws 8
6 Losses 7
19 Goals For 23
20 Goals Against 22
1.12 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.18 Avg Goals Conceded 0.96
9 BTTS Yes 10
12 Over 1.5 16
6 Over 2.5 5
2 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 10
6 Failed To Score 6
3.65 Shots On Goal 3.65
11.41 Total Shots 11.74
3.88 Corners 4.65
49.9% Ball Possession 56.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Corinthians. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gremio expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Corinthians in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Corinthians having the stronger overall control.

Gremio Analysis

Gremio sit 15 with 18 points after 16 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 6 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 16:18 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Carlos Vinicius (7 goals), Edenilson (4 goals), Camutanga (1 goals), with creative support from Edenilson (2 assists), F. Amuzu (2 assists), Gustavo Martins (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Corinthians Analysis

Corinthians approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 18 points from 16 matches. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 6 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 14:18 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Breno Bidon (2 goals), Matheus Bidu (2 goals), Matheuzinho (2 goals), with creative support from R. Garro (6 assists), Matheus Bidu (1 assists), André Carrillo (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Gremio won 0 times, Corinthians won 5 times, while 10 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:18 from Gremio's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.1%)
Predicted formations: Gremio 3-4-3 / Corinthians 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Gremio 8, Corinthians 6
H2H summary: Gremio wins 0, draws 10, Corinthians wins 5
Stats
Gremio Gremio
Corinthians Corinthians
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
9
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
8
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
7
4 Corner Kicks 7
23 Fouls 20
2 Offsides 1
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 24
3 Shots on Goal 9
3 Shots off Goal 8
4 Blocked Shots 7
7 Shots insidebox 12
3 Shots outsidebox 12
6 Goalkeeper Saves 1
295 Total passes 433
234 Passes accurate 379
1.46 expected_goals 1.62
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Gremio
Formation
Corinthians
Thiago Beltrame
Thiago Beltrame
Marcos Rocha
Marcos Rocha
Wagner Leonardo
Wagner Leonardo
Viery
Viery
Pedro Gabriel
Pedro Gabriel
L. Perez
L. Perez
Arthur Melo
Arthur Melo
Tete
Tete
M. Braithwaite
M. Braithwaite
Gabriel Mec
Gabriel Mec
Carlos Vinicius
Carlos Vinicius
Hugo Souza
Hugo Souza
Matheuzinho
Matheuzinho
Gabriel Paulista
Gabriel Paulista
Gustavo Henrique
Gustavo Henrique
Matheus Bidu
Matheus Bidu
Andre
⚽ 2
Andre
Raniele
Raniele
Kaio Cesar
Kaio Cesar
R. Garro
R. Garro
Breno Bidon
Breno Bidon
Yuri Alberto
🎯
Yuri Alberto
Gremio 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
24
Thiago Beltrame
🟥 75'
G
14
Marcos Rocha
↓ 46'
D
3
Wagner Leonardo
🟨 41'
D
44
Viery
🟨 90+2'
D
54
Pedro Gabriel
D
33
L. Perez
M
8
Arthur Melo
M
21
Tete
↓ 53'
M
22
M. Braithwaite
↓ 62'
M
37
Gabriel Mec
⚽ 7' ↓ 80'
M
95
Carlos Vinicius
↓ 79'
F
Substitutes
31
G. Menegon
↑ 79'
10
Willian
M
18
Joao Pedro
↑ 46'
D
17
Dodi
M
9
F. Amuzu
↑ 62'
F
99
J. Enamorado
↑ 53' 🟨 69'
F
38
Caio Paulista
D
19
E. Noriega
M
4
Walter Kannemann
D
20
M. Villasanti
M
77
Andre Henrique
↑ 80'
F
39
Tiago
M
Corinthians 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Hugo Souza
G
2
Matheuzinho
D
3
Gabriel Paulista
D
13
Gustavo Henrique
D
21
Matheus Bidu
D
49
Andre
⚽ 45' ⚽ 65' ↓ 88'
M
14
Raniele
↓ 82'
M
37
Kaio Cesar
⚽ 67' ↓ 88' 🟨 68'
M
8
R. Garro
↓ 90+4' 🟨 44'
M
7
Breno Bidon
↓ 90+4'
M
9
Yuri Alberto
🎯 65' 🎯 67'
F
Substitutes
51
Kaue
G
52
Z. Labyad
↑ 88'
F
5
Andre Ramalho
D
26
F. Angileri
D
23
M. Pereira
↑ 90+4'
M
20
P. Milans
D
56
Gui Negao
F
19
A. Carrillo
↑ 88'
M
29
Allan
↑ 82'
M
80
Alex Santana
M
18
Pedro Raul
F
61
Dieguinho
↑ 90+4'
M
Last matches: Gremio
27.06.26
Fri
Gremio
Cascavel
2
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Santos
3
2
W
17.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Bahia
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Flamengo
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Atletico Paranaense
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Coritiba
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Cruzeiro
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Internacional
0
0
D
05.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Remo
0
0
D
03.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Palmeiras
1
2
L
22.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Vasco DA Gama
1
2
L
19.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Vitoria
2
0
W
16.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
13.03.26
Ser
Gremio
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
26.02.26
Ser
Gremio
Atletico-MG
2
1
W
12.02.26
Ser
Gremio
Sao Paulo
0
2
L
05.02.26
Ser
Gremio
Botafogo
5
3
W
28.01.26
Ser
Gremio
Fluminense
1
2
L
Last matches: Corinthians
28.05.26
CON
Corinthians
Platense
0
2
L
24.05.26
Ser
Corinthians
Atletico-MG
1
0
W
22.05.26
CON
Corinthians
Penarol
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Corinthians
Botafogo
1
3
L
10.05.26
Ser
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
3
2
W
07.05.26
CON
Corinthians
Santa Fe
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Corinthians
Mirassol
1
2
L
01.05.26
CON
Corinthians
Penarol
2
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Corinthians
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Corinthians
Vitoria
0
0
D
16.04.26
CON
Corinthians
Santa Fe
2
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Corinthians
Palmeiras
0
0
D
10.04.26
CON
Corinthians
Platense
2
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Corinthians
Internacional
0
1
L
02.04.26
Ser
Corinthians
Fluminense
1
3
L
22.03.26
Ser
Corinthians
Flamengo
1
1
D
20.03.26
Ser
Corinthians
Chapecoense-sc
0
0
D
15.03.26
Ser
Corinthians
Santos
1
1
D
12.03.26
Ser
Corinthians
Coritiba
0
2
L
25.02.26
Ser
Corinthians
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
H2H: Gremio vs Corinthians
30.05.26
H2H
Gremio
Corinthians
1
3
L
02.11.25
H2H
Corinthians
Gremio
2
0
L
12.06.25
H2H
Gremio
Corinthians
1
1
D
08.12.24
H2H
Gremio
Corinthians
0
3
L
08.08.24
H2H
Gremio
Corinthians
0
0
D
01.08.24
H2H
Corinthians
Gremio
0
0
D
25.07.24
H2H
Corinthians
Gremio
2
2
D
12.11.23
H2H
Gremio
Corinthians
0
1
L
19.09.23
H2H
Corinthians
Gremio
4
4
D
05.12.21
H2H
Corinthians
Gremio
1
1
D
29.08.21
H2H
Gremio
Corinthians
0
1
L
22.11.20
H2H
Corinthians
Gremio
0
0
D
16.08.20
H2H
Gremio
Corinthians
0
0
D
05.10.19
H2H
Gremio
Corinthians
0
0
D
11.05.19
H2H
Corinthians
Gremio
0
0
D
Last matches: Gremio
23.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Santos
3
2
W
10.05.26
Ser
Gremio
Flamengo
0
1
L
26.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Coritiba
1
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Gremio
Remo
0
0
D
19.03.26
Ser
Gremio
Vitoria
2
0
W
13.03.26
Ser
Gremio
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
26.02.26
Ser
Gremio
Atletico-MG
2
1
W
05.02.26
Ser
Gremio
Botafogo
5
3
W
H2H at home: Gremio
30.05.26
H2H
Gremio
Corinthians
1
3
L
12.06.25
H2H
Gremio
Corinthians
1
1
D
08.12.24
H2H
Gremio
Corinthians
0
3
L
08.08.24
H2H
Gremio
Corinthians
0
0
D
12.11.23
H2H
Gremio
Corinthians
0
1
L
29.08.21
H2H
Gremio
Corinthians
0
1
L
16.08.20
H2H
Gremio
Corinthians
0
0
D
05.10.19
H2H
Gremio
Corinthians
0
0
D
Last matches: Corinthians
22.05.26
CON
Corinthians
Penarol
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Corinthians
Botafogo
1
3
L
07.05.26
CON
Corinthians
Santa Fe
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Corinthians
Mirassol
1
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Corinthians
Vitoria
0
0
D
10.04.26
CON
Corinthians
Platense
2
0
W
02.04.26
Ser
Corinthians
Fluminense
1
3
L
20.03.26
Ser
Corinthians
Chapecoense-sc
0
0
D
15.03.26
Ser
Corinthians
Santos
1
1
D
25.02.26
Ser
Corinthians
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
19.02.26
Ser
Corinthians
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
H2H away: Corinthians
30.05.26
H2H
Gremio
Corinthians
1
3
W
12.06.25
H2H
Gremio
Corinthians
1
1
D
08.12.24
H2H
Gremio
Corinthians
0
3
W
08.08.24
H2H
Gremio
Corinthians
0
0
D
12.11.23
H2H
Gremio
Corinthians
0
1
W
29.08.21
H2H
Gremio
Corinthians
0
1
W
16.08.20
H2H
Gremio
Corinthians
0
0
D
05.10.19
H2H
Gremio
Corinthians
0
0
D

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 12 5 1 30:13 17 41
?
2 17 10 4 3 31:16 15 34
?
3 18 9 4 5 28:23 5 31
?
4 18 9 3 6 24:18 6 30
?
5 18 9 2 7 25:19 6 29
?
6 17 7 5 5 25:23 2 26
?
7 18 7 5 6 24:24 0 26
?
8 18 7 4 7 23:20 3 25
?
9 18 7 3 8 22:23 -1 24
?
10 18 6 6 6 18:19 -1 24
?
11 18 6 6 6 24:28 -4 24
?
12 17 6 4 7 31:31 0 22
?
13 17 6 4 7 21:25 -4 22
?
14 18 5 6 7 21:22 -1 21
?
15 18 5 6 7 26:29 -3 21
?
16 18 5 6 7 20:23 -3 21
?
17 18 5 5 8 22:29 -7 20
?
18 18 4 6 8 21:29 -8 18
?
19 17 4 4 9 18:24 -6 16
?
20 17 1 6 10 17:33 -16 9
?
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Gremio 8 missing
-
Gabriel Grando
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
Weverton
Missing Fixture International duty
OUT
-
Fabian Balbuena
Missing Fixture International duty
OUT
-
Gustavo Martins
Missing Fixture Knock
OUT
-
Luis Eduardo
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
Marlon
Missing Fixture Broken ankle
OUT
-
J. Nardoni
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
C. Pavon
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
Corinthians 6 missing
-
Joao Pedro
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
Charles Rigon
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
J. Lingard
Missing Fixture Personal Reasons
OUT
-
M. Depay
Missing Fixture International duty
OUT
-
Kayke
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Vitinho
Missing Fixture Hip Injury
OUT