SENEGAL LIGUE 1
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 88.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 97.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
88.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
97.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Gorée Win 61.1%
Draw 8.6%
AJEL Win 30.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gorée0.81
AJEL0.69
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gorée Gorée
WWDLW
26 GF / 12 GA
AJEL AJEL
WLDWL
23 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
0.96
Average Goals Scored
0.85
0.44
Average Goals Conceded
0.59
6
BTTS Yes
6
5
Over 2.5
2
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gorée Gorée 27 matches
AJEL AJEL 27 matches
Gorée Statistic AJEL
10 Wins 13
13 Draws 9
4 Losses 5
26 Goals For 23
12 Goals Against 16
0.96 Avg Goals Scored 0.85
0.44 Avg Goals Conceded 0.59
6 BTTS Yes 6
12 Over 1.5 14
5 Over 2.5 2
2 Over 3.5 0
17 Clean Sheets 16
13 Failed To Score 9
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward AJEL. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward AJEL having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Gorée Analysis

Gorée arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 43 points after 26 matches. The record of 10 wins, 13 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 26:10 goal balance, points toward poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

AJEL Analysis

Placed 1 with 45 points from 26 outings, AJEL continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 12 wins, 9 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 22:16 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 6 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Gorée won 2 times, AJEL won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:4 from Gorée's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.4%)
H2H summary: Gorée wins 2, draws 0, AJEL wins 2
Last matches: Gorée
04.06.26
Lig
Gorée
Stade de Mbour
0
0
D
22.05.26
Lig
Gorée
Wally Daan
1
1
D
13.05.26
Lig
Gorée
Ouakam
0
2
L
10.05.26
Lig
Gorée
HLM
1
1
D
03.05.26
Lig
Gorée
AS Camberene
0
0
D
26.04.26
Lig
Gorée
Casa Sport
0
0
D
18.04.26
Lig
Gorée
Jaraaf
0
0
D
12.04.26
Lig
Gorée
Pikine
1
0
W
30.03.26
Lig
Gorée
Sonacos
2
1
W
25.03.26
Lig
Gorée
Génération Foot
0
0
D
15.03.26
Lig
Gorée
La Linguère
0
0
D
07.03.26
Lig
Gorée
DSC
1
0
W
01.03.26
Lig
Gorée
Guédiawaye
1
1
D
22.02.26
Lig
Gorée
Teungueth
0
1
L
15.02.26
Lig
Gorée
Stade de Mbour
1
0
W
07.02.26
Lig
Gorée
Wally Daan
1
1
D
31.01.26
Lig
Gorée
AJEL
0
1
L
24.01.26
Lig
Gorée
Ouakam
0
0
D
11.01.26
Lig
Gorée
HLM
5
0
W
07.01.26
Lig
Gorée
AS Camberene
3
0
W
Last matches: AJEL
04.06.26
Lig
AJEL
Génération Foot
1
0
W
22.05.26
Lig
AJEL
La Linguère
2
1
W
13.05.26
Lig
AJEL
Guédiawaye
1
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
AJEL
Teungueth
0
0
D
03.05.26
Lig
AJEL
Stade de Mbour
0
1
L
25.04.26
Lig
AJEL
Wally Daan
0
0
D
18.04.26
Lig
AJEL
DSC
0
2
L
11.04.26
Lig
AJEL
Ouakam
1
0
W
29.03.26
Lig
AJEL
HLM
0
3
L
25.03.26
Lig
AJEL
AS Camberene
0
0
D
15.03.26
Lig
AJEL
Casa Sport
1
0
W
08.03.26
Lig
AJEL
Jaraaf
1
0
W
01.03.26
Lig
AJEL
Pikine
2
0
W
21.02.26
Lig
AJEL
Sonacos
1
0
W
15.02.26
Lig
AJEL
Génération Foot
2
0
W
08.02.26
Lig
AJEL
La Linguère
0
2
L
31.01.26
Lig
AJEL
Gorée
1
0
W
25.01.26
Lig
AJEL
Guédiawaye
1
0
W
11.01.26
Lig
AJEL
Teungueth
0
2
L
07.01.26
Lig
AJEL
Stade de Mbour
2
0
W
H2H: Gorée vs AJEL
17.05.26
H2H
Gorée
AJEL
2
1
W
31.01.26
H2H
AJEL
Gorée
1
0
L
26.06.25
H2H
Gorée
AJEL
2
1
W
09.02.25
H2H
AJEL
Gorée
1
0
L
Last matches: Gorée
04.06.26
Lig
Gorée
Stade de Mbour
0
0
D
10.05.26
Lig
Gorée
HLM
1
1
D
18.04.26
Lig
Gorée
Jaraaf
0
0
D
30.03.26
Lig
Gorée
Sonacos
2
1
W
15.03.26
Lig
Gorée
La Linguère
0
0
D
07.03.26
Lig
Gorée
DSC
1
0
W
22.02.26
Lig
Gorée
Teungueth
0
1
L
07.02.26
Lig
Gorée
Wally Daan
1
1
D
24.01.26
Lig
Gorée
Ouakam
0
0
D
07.01.26
Lig
Gorée
AS Camberene
3
0
W
28.12.25
Lig
Gorée
Casa Sport
1
1
D
14.12.25
Lig
Gorée
Pikine
0
0
D
29.11.25
Lig
Gorée
Génération Foot
2
1
W
08.11.25
Lig
Gorée
Guédiawaye
1
0
W
H2H at home: Gorée
17.05.26
H2H
Gorée
AJEL
2
1
W
26.06.25
H2H
Gorée
AJEL
2
1
W
Last matches: AJEL
04.06.26
Lig
AJEL
Génération Foot
1
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
AJEL
Teungueth
0
0
D
25.04.26
Lig
AJEL
Wally Daan
0
0
D
18.04.26
Lig
AJEL
DSC
0
2
L
29.03.26
Lig
AJEL
HLM
0
3
L
15.03.26
Lig
AJEL
Casa Sport
1
0
W
01.03.26
Lig
AJEL
Pikine
2
0
W
08.02.26
Lig
AJEL
La Linguère
0
2
L
25.01.26
Lig
AJEL
Guédiawaye
1
0
W
07.01.26
Lig
AJEL
Stade de Mbour
2
0
W
14.12.25
Lig
AJEL
Ouakam
2
1
W
30.11.25
Lig
AJEL
AS Camberene
1
1
D
16.11.25
Lig
AJEL
Jaraaf
2
0
W
02.11.25
Lig
AJEL
Sonacos
1
1
D
H2H away: AJEL
17.05.26
H2H
Gorée
AJEL
2
1
L
26.06.25
H2H
Gorée
AJEL
2
1
L

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 13 15 2 21:6 15 54
?
2
AJEL Away
30 15 9 6 27:19 8 54
?
3 30 13 9 8 37:22 15 48
?
4 30 11 15 4 29:14 15 48
?
5 30 10 14 6 29:24 5 44
?
6 30 8 18 4 23:16 7 42
?
7 30 9 14 7 21:16 5 41
?
8 30 7 19 4 29:20 9 40
?
9 30 7 13 10 20:19 1 34
?
10 30 5 18 7 18:21 -3 33
?
11 30 5 18 7 18:24 -6 33
?
12 30 5 16 9 24:37 -13 31
?
13 30 7 8 15 29:34 -5 28
?
14 30 3 16 11 22:36 -14 25
?
15 30 4 13 13 18:39 -21 25
?
16 30 3 15 12 16:34 -18 24
?
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation