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FINLAND › VEIKKAUSLIIGA
24.10.2026 14:00
Mustapekka Areena
Referee: Antti Munukka
Gnistan
Match Timeline
AC Oulu
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
5'
Mikko Pitkanen · Assist: Rasmus Karjalainen
AC Oulu
⚽
10'
Iiro Mendolin · Assist: Rasmus Karjalainen
AC Oulu
⚽
22'
Sergey Eremenko
Gnistan
⚽
45+1'
Otso Virtanen
AC Oulu
⚽
51'
Adam Jouhi · Assist: Saku Ylätupa
Gnistan
🟨
54'
Saku Ylätupa
Gnistan
🔄
54'
Otto Hannula ↔ Artur Atarah
Gnistan
🔄
60'
Saku Ylätupa ↔ Danny Pérez
Gnistan
🔄
71'
Joel lotvonen ↔ Lamine Ghezali
AC Oulu
🔄
71'
Rasmus Karjalainen ↔ Roope Riski
AC Oulu
🔄
85'
Pakwo Abdoul Rachide Gnanou ↔ Jeff Selenge
Gnistan
⚽
85'
Lamine Ghezali · Assist: Roope Riski
AC Oulu
🟨
86'
Lamine Ghezali
AC Oulu
🔄
86'
Elias Kallio ↔ Juuso Mäkeläinen
AC Oulu
🔄
88'
Otto Kemppainen ↔ Alex Lietsa
AC Oulu
⚽
90+1'
Adam Jouhi · Assist: Roger Bonet
Gnistan

Gnistan vs AC Oulu Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 65.9%
Odds 1.25
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds 1.75
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds 2.15
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
65.9%
1.25 ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
1.75 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
2.15 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.5%
1.22 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
6.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-1
-
7.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Gnistan Win 42.6%
Draw 23.2%
AC Oulu Win 34.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gnistan1.28
AC Oulu1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gnistan Gnistan
L L D D W
3 GF / 7 GA
AC Oulu AC Oulu
W L W L L
7 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
1.32
Average Goals Scored
1.2
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
1.23
18
BTTS Yes
14
15
Over 2.5
12
2.68
Shots on Goal
2.18

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gnistan Gnistan 34 matches
AC Oulu AC Oulu 30 matches
Gnistan Statistic AC Oulu
12 Wins 13
10 Draws 5
12 Losses 12
45 Goals For 36
47 Goals Against 37
1.32 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1.23
18 BTTS Yes 14
27 Over 1.5 17
15 Over 2.5 12
9 Over 3.5 6
7 Clean Sheets 10
10 Failed To Score 8
2.68 Shots On Goal 2.18
8.21 Total Shots 5.93
2.71 Corners 2.21
31.3% Ball Possession 23%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Gnistan's more proactive style and AC Oulu's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward AC Oulu. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. AC Oulu arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gnistan expected to line up in 5-4-1 and AC Oulu in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward AC Oulu having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Gnistan Analysis

Gnistan come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 36 points from 22 matches. Their overall return of 10 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 36:29 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Obileye (1 goals), B. Milovanov (1 goals), R. Eremenko (1 goals), with creative support from E. Arko-Mensah (1 assists), Ruxi (1 assists), J. Latonen (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

AC Oulu Analysis

AC Oulu approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 5 with 34 points from 22 matches. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 4 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 25:25 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on C. Triana (2 goals), E. Kallio (1 goals), M. Pitkänen (1 goals), with creative support from R. Karjalainen (2 assists), E. Kallio (1 assists), J. Lotvonen (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Gnistan won 4 times, AC Oulu won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:10 from Gnistan's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 4.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (76.8%)
Predicted formations: Gnistan 5-4-1 / AC Oulu 4-4-2
H2H summary: Gnistan wins 4, draws 0, AC Oulu wins 1

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 7 3 38:23 15 43
W L L W D
2 22 11 9 2 29:16 13 42
W L W D W
3 22 11 4 7 36:27 9 37
W W W D D
4 22 10 6 6 36:29 7 36
L L L D D
5 22 10 4 8 25:25 0 34
W W L W L
6 22 9 6 7 29:22 7 33
L L W L L
7 22 9 5 8 26:19 7 32
W L D L W
8 22 8 7 7 28:23 5 31
L L L L D
9 22 7 4 11 34:37 -3 25
W D W W W
10 22 4 7 11 25:33 -8 19
L W W D D
11 22 3 6 13 18:44 -26 15
D D W D D
12 22 3 5 14 17:43 -26 14
D D L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Play-offs