22.08.2026 19:00
Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo
Referee: L. Rey Hilfer
Gimnasia L.P.
Match Timeline
Gimnasia M.
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
17'
A. Modica · Assist: T. O'Connor
Gimnasia M.
39'
A. Modica
Gimnasia M.
🔄
43'
J. Cortazzo ↔ R. Giampaoli
Gimnasia L.P.
🔄
46'
N. Schelotto ↔ M. Zalazar
Gimnasia L.P.
🔄
46'
A. Max ↔ L. Janson
Gimnasia L.P.
46'
A. Auzmendi · Assist: B. Barros Schelotto
Gimnasia L.P.
🔄
52'
D. Mondino ↔ G. Guiffrey
Gimnasia M.
62'
M. Zalazar · Assist: L. Janson
Gimnasia L.P.
🟨
70'
Fermin Antonini
Gimnasia M.
🔄
74'
F. Antonini ↔ N. Barboza
Gimnasia M.
76'
A. Modica · Assist: E. Fernandez
Gimnasia M.
🔄
77'
A. Colazo ↔ F. Torres
Gimnasia L.P.
🔄
80'
E. Fernandez ↔ B. Andrada
Gimnasia M.
🔄
81'
L. Cingolani ↔ L. Carrera
Gimnasia M.
🔄
81'
T. O'Connor ↔ U. Sanchez
Gimnasia M.
🟨
90+6'
Agustín Modica
Gimnasia M.
🟨
90+1'
Nahuel Barboza
Gimnasia M.

Gimnasia L.P. vs Gimnasia M. Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
77%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Gimnasia L.P. Win 88%
Draw 6%
Gimnasia M. Win 6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Gimnasia L.P.1.27
Gimnasia M.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Gimnasia L.P. Gimnasia L.P.
WWDLW
38 GF / 32 GA
Gimnasia M. Gimnasia M.
WLDWL
20 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
0.91
1.14
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
13
BTTS Yes
9
14
Over 2.5
7
3.78
Shots on Goal
3.81

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Gimnasia L.P. Gimnasia L.P. 28 matches
Gimnasia M. Gimnasia M. 22 matches
Gimnasia L.P. Statistic Gimnasia M.
15 Wins 8
4 Draws 5
9 Losses 9
38 Goals For 20
32 Goals Against 25
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 0.91
1.14 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
13 BTTS Yes 9
21 Over 1.5 11
14 Over 2.5 7
6 Over 3.5 4
9 Clean Sheets 7
7 Failed To Score 8
3.78 Shots On Goal 3.81
11.09 Total Shots 11.19
3.74 Corners 3.76
44.5% Ball Possession 44%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Gimnasia M.. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Gimnasia L.P. expected to line up in 4-3-1-2 and Gimnasia M. in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gimnasia M. having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Gimnasia L.P. Analysis

So far, Gimnasia L.P. have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 26 points from 16 matches. The record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 19:19 goal balance, points toward good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking threat comes through Marcelo Torres (4 goals), Agustín Auzmendi (2 goals), Franco Torres (2 goals), with creative support from Alexis Steimbach (4 assists), Agustín Auzmendi (2 assists), Pedro Silva (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Gimnasia M. Analysis

Gimnasia M. are currently 11 in the standings with 19 points from 16 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, while the 14:22 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Agustín Modica (4 goals), Facundo Lencioni (1 goals), Luciano Cingolani (1 goals), with creative support from Facundo Lencioni (2 assists), Ignacio Sabatini (2 assists), Luciano Cingolani (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Gimnasia L.P. won 1 times, Gimnasia M. won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:3 from Gimnasia L.P.'s perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94%)
Predicted formations: Gimnasia L.P. 4-3-1-2 / Gimnasia M. 4-3-3
H2H summary: Gimnasia L.P. wins 1, draws 0, Gimnasia M. wins 1

Standings

Apertura - Group B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 10 4 2 29:15 14 34
W L W D L
2 16 9 2 5 22:12 10 29
L W W W D
3 16 8 5 3 17:13 4 29
L D D W D
4 16 8 4 4 20:16 4 28
W W D L D
5 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
W D D D L
6 16 8 2 6 19:19 0 26
D D W W L
7 16 5 7 4 17:13 4 22
W W D D D
8 16 5 6 5 17:15 2 21
W L L L D
9 16 5 6 5 15:15 0 21
D D D L L
10 16 4 8 4 18:15 3 20
L L D W D
11 16 6 1 9 13:20 -7 19
L D W L W
12 16 5 3 8 17:19 -2 18
D D L L L
13 16 3 5 8 15:20 -5 14
L W D D W
14 16 0 8 8 6:19 -13 8
L W L L D
15 16 1 2 13 5:24 -19 5
L L L D D
Knockout Phase