ITALY SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Stadio Luigi Ferraris
Referee: S. Sozza
Genoa
Match Timeline
AC Milan
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
48'
Justin Bijlow
Genoa
50'
C. Nkunku
AC Milan
🟨
62'
Matteo Gabbia
AC Milan
🟨
63'
Vitinha
Genoa
🔄
64'
T. Baldanzi ↔ J. Ekhator
Genoa
🔄
68'
Y. Fofana ↔ S. Ricci
AC Milan
🔄
68'
S. Gimenez ↔ N. Fullkrug
AC Milan
🟨
72'
Fikayo Tomori
AC Milan
🔄
76'
C. Nkunku ↔ C. Pulisic
AC Milan
🔄
76'
F. Tomori ↔ K. De Winter
AC Milan
81'
Z. Athekame · Assist: C. Pulisic
AC Milan
🔄
85'
L. Colombo ↔ C. Ekuban
Genoa
🔄
85'
A. Jashari ↔ R. Loftus-Cheek
AC Milan
🟨
86'
Samuele Ricci
AC Milan
86'
J. Vasquez
Genoa
🔄
90+1'
Amorim ↔ A. Martin
Genoa

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 56.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 61.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
56.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
61.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
75%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Genoa Win 43.4%
Draw 0%
AC Milan Win 56.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Genoa1.06
AC Milan1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Genoa Genoa
WWDLW
46 GF / 53 GA
AC Milan AC Milan
WLDWL
55 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
1.38
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
0.88
20
BTTS Yes
16
22
Over 2.5
16
3.9
Shots on Goal
4.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Genoa Genoa 39 matches
AC Milan AC Milan 40 matches
Genoa Statistic AC Milan
12 Wins 21
11 Draws 10
16 Losses 9
46 Goals For 55
53 Goals Against 35
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 0.88
20 BTTS Yes 16
31 Over 1.5 26
22 Over 2.5 16
8 Over 3.5 7
10 Clean Sheets 17
15 Failed To Score 9
3.9 Shots On Goal 4.43
11.59 Total Shots 13.75
3.69 Corners 4.58
48.3% Ball Possession 53.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by AC Milan's more proactive style and Genoa's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward AC Milan. AC Milan carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 67 points while Genoa sit 14 on 41, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. AC Milan arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Genoa expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and AC Milan in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward AC Milan having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Genoa Analysis

Genoa approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 41 points from 36 matches. The overall return of 10 wins, 11 draws, and 15 defeats with a 40:48 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Lorenzo Colombo (7 goals), Ruslan Malinovskyi (6 goals), Leo Østigård (5 goals), with creative support from Aarón Martín (5 assists), Ruslan Malinovskyi (3 assists), Alessandro Marcandalli (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

AC Milan Analysis

With 67 points from 36 games and a place of 4, AC Milan still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 19 wins, 10 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 50:32, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through R. Leao (9 goals), C. Pulisic (8 goals), A. Rabiot (6 goals), with creative support from A. Rabiot (4 assists), S. Ricci (4 assists), R. Leao (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 10 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses points to a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Genoa won 1 times, AC Milan won 10 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:28 from Genoa's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Genoa 3-4-2-1 / AC Milan 3-5-2
Missing players: Genoa 5, AC Milan 4
H2H summary: Genoa wins 1, draws 4, AC Milan wins 10
Stats
Genoa Genoa
AC Milan AC Milan
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
1
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
1
4 Corner Kicks 4
8 Fouls 19
1 Offsides 1
62% Ball Possession 38%
11 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Goal 6
7 Shots off Goal 1
2 Blocked Shots 1
7 Shots insidebox 6
4 Shots outsidebox 2
4 Goalkeeper Saves 1
477 Total passes 288
404 Passes accurate 227
1.32 expected_goals 1.75
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Genoa
Formation
AC Milan
J. Bijlow
J. Bijlow
M. E. Ellertsson
M. E. Ellertsson
A. Marcandalli
A. Marcandalli
S. Otoa
S. Otoa
J. Vasquez
J. Vasquez
M. Frendrup
M. Frendrup
Amorim
Amorim
R. Malinovskyi
R. Malinovskyi
T. Baldanzi
T. Baldanzi
Vitinha
Vitinha
L. Colombo
L. Colombo
M. Maignan
M. Maignan
F. Tomori
F. Tomori
M. Gabbia
M. Gabbia
S. Pavlovic
S. Pavlovic
Z. Athekame
Z. Athekame
Y. Fofana
Y. Fofana
A. Jashari
A. Jashari
A. Rabiot
A. Rabiot
D. Bartesaghi
D. Bartesaghi
S. Gimenez
S. Gimenez
C. Nkunku
C. Nkunku
Genoa 4-3-2-1
Starting XI
16
J. Bijlow
🟨 48'
G
77
M. E. Ellertsson
D
27
A. Marcandalli
D
34
S. Otoa
D
22
J. Vasquez
⚽ 86'
D
32
M. Frendrup
M
4
Amorim
↓ 90+1'
M
17
R. Malinovskyi
M
8
T. Baldanzi
↓ 64'
M
9
Vitinha
🟨 63'
M
29
L. Colombo
↓ 85'
F
Substitutes
1
N. Leali
G
39
D. Sommariva
G
75
G. Lafont
M
21
J. Ekhator
↑ 64'
F
40
L. Klisys
D
74
M. Doucoure
20
S. Sabelli
D
18
C. Ekuban
↑ 85'
F
3
A. Martin
↑ 90+1'
D
73
P. Masini
M
80
J. Grossi
M
13
N. Zatterstrom
D
99
W. L. Ouedraogo
D
AC Milan 3-5-2
Starting XI
16
M. Maignan
G
23
F. Tomori
↓ 76' 🟨 72'
D
46
M. Gabbia
🟨 62'
D
31
S. Pavlovic
D
24
Z. Athekame
⚽ 81'
M
19
Y. Fofana
↓ 68'
M
30
A. Jashari
↓ 85'
M
12
A. Rabiot
M
33
D. Bartesaghi
M
7
S. Gimenez
↓ 68'
F
18
C. Nkunku
⚽ 50' ↓ 76'
F
Substitutes
1
P. Terracciano
G
96
L. Torriani
G
14
L. Modric
M
8
R. Loftus-Cheek
↑ 85'
M
4
S. Ricci
↑ 68' 🟨 86'
M
34
V. Vladimirov
D
9
N. Fullkrug
↑ 68'
F
11
C. Pulisic
🎯 81' ↑ 76'
M
5
K. De Winter
↑ 76'
D
27
D. Odogu
D
45
J. Sardo
M
25
C. Bosveld
Last matches: Genoa
24.05.26
Ser
Genoa
Lecce
0
1
L
10.05.26
Ser
Genoa
Fiorentina
0
0
D
02.05.26
Ser
Genoa
Atalanta
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Genoa
Como
0
2
L
19.04.26
Ser
Genoa
Pisa
2
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Genoa
Sassuolo
2
1
W
06.04.26
Ser
Genoa
Juventus
0
2
L
20.03.26
Ser
Genoa
Udinese
0
2
L
15.03.26
Ser
Genoa
Hellas Verona
2
0
W
08.03.26
Ser
Genoa
AS Roma
2
1
W
28.02.26
Ser
Genoa
Inter
0
2
L
22.02.26
Ser
Genoa
Torino
3
0
W
15.02.26
Ser
Genoa
Cremonese
0
0
D
07.02.26
Ser
Genoa
Napoli
2
3
L
30.01.26
Ser
Genoa
Lazio
2
3
L
25.01.26
Ser
Genoa
Bologna
3
2
W
18.01.26
Ser
Genoa
Parma
0
0
D
12.01.26
Ser
Genoa
Cagliari
3
0
W
08.01.26
Ser
Genoa
AC Milan
1
1
D
03.01.26
Ser
Genoa
Pisa
1
1
D
Last matches: AC Milan
24.05.26
Ser
AC Milan
Cagliari
1
2
L
10.05.26
Ser
AC Milan
Atalanta
2
3
L
03.05.26
Ser
AC Milan
Sassuolo
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
AC Milan
Juventus
0
0
D
19.04.26
Ser
AC Milan
Hellas Verona
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
AC Milan
Udinese
0
3
L
06.04.26
Ser
AC Milan
Napoli
0
1
L
21.03.26
Ser
AC Milan
Torino
3
2
W
15.03.26
Ser
AC Milan
Lazio
0
1
L
08.03.26
Ser
AC Milan
Inter
1
0
W
01.03.26
Ser
AC Milan
Cremonese
2
0
W
22.02.26
Ser
AC Milan
Parma
0
1
L
18.02.26
Ser
AC Milan
Como
1
1
D
13.02.26
Ser
AC Milan
Pisa
2
1
W
03.02.26
Ser
AC Milan
Bologna
3
0
W
25.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
AS Roma
1
1
D
18.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
Lecce
1
0
W
15.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
Como
3
1
W
11.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
Fiorentina
1
1
D
08.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
Genoa
1
1
D
H2H: Genoa vs AC Milan
17.05.26
H2H
Genoa
AC Milan
1
2
L
08.01.26
H2H
AC Milan
Genoa
1
1
D
05.05.25
H2H
Genoa
AC Milan
1
2
L
15.12.24
H2H
AC Milan
Genoa
0
0
D
05.05.24
H2H
AC Milan
Genoa
3
3
D
07.10.23
H2H
Genoa
AC Milan
0
1
L
15.04.22
H2H
AC Milan
Genoa
2
0
L
13.01.22
H2H
AC Milan
Genoa
3
1
L
01.12.21
H2H
Genoa
AC Milan
0
3
L
18.04.21
H2H
AC Milan
Genoa
2
1
L
16.12.20
H2H
Genoa
AC Milan
2
2
D
08.03.20
H2H
AC Milan
Genoa
1
2
W
05.10.19
H2H
Genoa
AC Milan
1
2
L
21.01.19
H2H
Genoa
AC Milan
0
2
L
31.10.18
H2H
AC Milan
Genoa
2
1
L
Last matches: Genoa
26.04.26
Ser
Genoa
Como
0
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Genoa
Sassuolo
2
1
W
20.03.26
Ser
Genoa
Udinese
0
2
L
08.03.26
Ser
Genoa
AS Roma
2
1
W
22.02.26
Ser
Genoa
Torino
3
0
W
07.02.26
Ser
Genoa
Napoli
2
3
L
25.01.26
Ser
Genoa
Bologna
3
2
W
12.01.26
Ser
Genoa
Cagliari
3
0
W
03.01.26
Ser
Genoa
Pisa
1
1
D
21.12.25
Ser
Genoa
Atalanta
0
1
L
14.12.25
Ser
Genoa
Inter
1
2
L
29.11.25
Ser
Genoa
Hellas Verona
2
1
W
09.11.25
Ser
Genoa
Fiorentina
2
2
D
29.10.25
Ser
Genoa
Cremonese
0
2
L
19.10.25
Ser
Genoa
Parma
0
0
D
29.09.25
Ser
Genoa
Lazio
0
3
L
25.09.25
Cop
Genoa
Empoli
3
1
W
31.08.25
Ser
Genoa
Juventus
0
1
L
23.08.25
Ser
Genoa
Lecce
0
0
D
15.08.25
Cop
Genoa
Vicenza Virtus
3
0
W
H2H at home: Genoa
17.05.26
H2H
Genoa
AC Milan
1
2
L
05.05.25
H2H
Genoa
AC Milan
1
2
L
07.10.23
H2H
Genoa
AC Milan
0
1
L
01.12.21
H2H
Genoa
AC Milan
0
3
L
16.12.20
H2H
Genoa
AC Milan
2
2
D
05.10.19
H2H
Genoa
AC Milan
1
2
L
21.01.19
H2H
Genoa
AC Milan
0
2
L
Last matches: AC Milan
03.05.26
Ser
AC Milan
Sassuolo
0
2
L
19.04.26
Ser
AC Milan
Hellas Verona
1
0
W
06.04.26
Ser
AC Milan
Napoli
0
1
L
15.03.26
Ser
AC Milan
Lazio
0
1
L
01.03.26
Ser
AC Milan
Cremonese
2
0
W
13.02.26
Ser
AC Milan
Pisa
2
1
W
03.02.26
Ser
AC Milan
Bologna
3
0
W
25.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
AS Roma
1
1
D
15.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
Como
3
1
W
11.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
Fiorentina
1
1
D
02.01.26
Ser
AC Milan
Cagliari
1
0
W
18.12.25
Sup
AC Milan
Napoli
0
2
L
08.12.25
Ser
AC Milan
Torino
3
2
W
04.12.25
Cop
AC Milan
Lazio
0
1
L
23.11.25
Ser
AC Milan
Inter
1
0
W
08.11.25
Ser
AC Milan
Parma
2
2
D
28.10.25
Ser
AC Milan
Atalanta
1
1
D
05.10.25
Ser
AC Milan
Juventus
0
0
D
20.09.25
Ser
AC Milan
Udinese
3
0
W
29.08.25
Ser
AC Milan
Lecce
2
0
W
H2H away: AC Milan
17.05.26
H2H
Genoa
AC Milan
1
2
W
05.05.25
H2H
Genoa
AC Milan
1
2
W
07.10.23
H2H
Genoa
AC Milan
0
1
W
01.12.21
H2H
Genoa
AC Milan
0
3
W
16.12.20
H2H
Genoa
AC Milan
2
2
D
05.10.19
H2H
Genoa
AC Milan
1
2
W
21.01.19
H2H
Genoa
AC Milan
0
2
W

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16
Genoa Home
38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L

Missing Players

Genoa 5 missing
-
B. Norton-Cuffy
Questionable Thigh Injury
OUT
-
S. Otoa
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
T. Baldanzi
Questionable Thigh Injury
OUT
-
M. Cornet
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
Junior Messias
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
AC Milan 4 missing
-
R. Leao
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
P. Estupinan
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
A. Saelemaekers
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
S. Ricci
Questionable Ankle Injury
OUT