NORWAY ELITESERIEN
--.--.---- --:--
Fredrikstad Stadion
Referee: S. Kringstad

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.5%
Odds 3.05
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.78
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.5%
3.05
BTTS Yes
86%
1.62
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.78
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.22
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
Fredrikstad Win 53.5%
Draw 6.2%
Lillestrom Win 40.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fredrikstad1.53
Lillestrom1.78
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fredrikstad Fredrikstad
WWDLW
33 GF / 32 GA
Lillestrom Lillestrom
WLDWL
47 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.57
Average Goals Scored
1.96
1.52
Average Goals Conceded
1.46
16
BTTS Yes
13
13
Over 2.5
14
4.09
Shots on Goal
4.64

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 21 matches
Lillestrom Lillestrom 24 matches
Fredrikstad Statistic Lillestrom
9 Wins 10
6 Draws 4
6 Losses 10
33 Goals For 47
32 Goals Against 35
1.57 Avg Goals Scored 1.96
1.52 Avg Goals Conceded 1.46
16 BTTS Yes 13
19 Over 1.5 18
13 Over 2.5 14
9 Over 3.5 12
3 Clean Sheets 6
3 Failed To Score 7
4.09 Shots On Goal 4.64
11.91 Total Shots 13.55
4.27 Corners 5.45
48.4% Ball Possession 53.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Lillestrom's more proactive style and Fredrikstad's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Lillestrom. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fredrikstad expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Lillestrom in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lillestrom having the stronger overall control. Lillestrom arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Fredrikstad Analysis

From their first 11 matches, Fredrikstad have collected 14 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. The record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 15:20 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through D. Eid (2 goals), O. Ohlenschlaeger (2 goals), R. R. Shein (2 goals), with creative support from D. Eid (2 assists), O. Ohlenschlaeger (1 assists), R. R. Shein (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lillestrom Analysis

Lillestrom sit 4 with 19 points after 11 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats with a 17:11 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Karlsbakk (4 goals), T. Olsen (3 goals), Felix Va (2 goals), with creative support from Felix Va (4 assists), T. Olsen (1 assists), Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Fredrikstad won 3 times, Lillestrom won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:7 from Fredrikstad's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.57 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.8%)
Predicted formations: Fredrikstad 3-4-3 / Lillestrom 4-1-4-1
Missing players: Fredrikstad 3, Lillestrom 5
H2H summary: Fredrikstad wins 3, draws 3, Lillestrom wins 1
Last matches: Fredrikstad
04.07.26
Fri
Fredrikstad
Valerenga
1
3
L
28.06.26
Fri
Fredrikstad
IF Elfsborg
0
0
D
20.06.26
Fri
Fredrikstad
Ham-Kam
1
1
D
29.05.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Start
2
1
W
25.05.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Sandefjord
1
1
D
16.05.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Ham-Kam
2
1
W
09.05.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
2
L
02.05.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Brann
1
3
L
25.04.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Viking
1
2
L
19.04.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Kristiansund BK
0
2
L
12.04.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Valerenga
1
1
D
07.04.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Aalesund
3
2
W
22.03.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
KFUM Oslo
3
1
W
15.03.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Tromso
0
4
L
28.02.26
Fri
Fredrikstad
ODD Ballklubb
4
1
W
22.02.26
Fri
Fredrikstad
Aalesund
3
2
W
17.02.26
Fri
Fredrikstad
KFUM Oslo
1
1
D
11.02.26
Fri
Fredrikstad
Toronto FC
1
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Fredrikstad
IF Elfsborg
2
0
W
04.02.26
Fri
Fredrikstad
jerv
3
2
W
Last matches: Lillestrom
03.07.26
Fri
Lillestrom
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
1
W
26.06.26
Fri
Lillestrom
Degerfors IF
2
3
L
20.06.26
Fri
Lillestrom
FC Midtjylland
0
1
L
25.05.26
Eli
Lillestrom
Ham-Kam
0
2
L
20.05.26
Eli
Lillestrom
Kristiansund BK
1
2
L
16.05.26
Eli
Lillestrom
Sandefjord
3
1
W
10.05.26
Eli
Lillestrom
Rosenborg
0
2
L
03.05.26
Eli
Lillestrom
Sarpsborg 08 FF
4
0
W
26.04.26
Eli
Lillestrom
Bodo/Glimt
0
2
L
19.04.26
Eli
Lillestrom
Valerenga
2
0
W
15.04.26
Eli
Lillestrom
Tromso
0
0
D
11.04.26
Eli
Lillestrom
Start
3
1
W
06.04.26
Eli
Lillestrom
Molde
1
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
Lillestrom
Orgryte IS
0
1
L
15.03.26
Eli
Lillestrom
Aalesund
3
1
W
27.02.26
Fri
Lillestrom
Tromso
0
0
D
24.02.26
Fri
Lillestrom
Kongsvinger
2
4
L
17.02.26
Fri
Lillestrom
Haugesund
7
1
W
13.02.26
Fri
Lillestrom
Stromsgodset
4
4
D
07.02.26
Fri
Lillestrom
KFUM Oslo
7
2
W
H2H: Fredrikstad vs Lillestrom
31.01.26
H2H
Lillestrom
Fredrikstad
2
2
D
21.05.25
H2H
Lillestrom
Fredrikstad
1
1
D
22.03.25
H2H
Fredrikstad
Lillestrom
1
0
W
20.10.24
H2H
Fredrikstad
Lillestrom
2
1
W
20.05.24
H2H
Lillestrom
Fredrikstad
0
3
W
27.01.24
H2H
Lillestrom
Fredrikstad
2
1
L
04.03.22
H2H
Fredrikstad
Lillestrom
1
1
D
Last matches: Fredrikstad
28.06.26
Fri
Fredrikstad
IF Elfsborg
0
0
D
20.06.26
Fri
Fredrikstad
Ham-Kam
1
1
D
29.05.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Start
2
1
W
16.05.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Ham-Kam
2
1
W
25.04.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Viking
1
2
L
12.04.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
Valerenga
1
1
D
22.03.26
Eli
Fredrikstad
KFUM Oslo
3
1
W
28.02.26
Fri
Fredrikstad
ODD Ballklubb
4
1
W
17.02.26
Fri
Fredrikstad
KFUM Oslo
1
1
D
04.02.26
Fri
Fredrikstad
jerv
3
2
W
28.08.25
UEF
Fredrikstad
Crystal Palace
0
0
D
07.08.25
UEF
Fredrikstad
FC Midtjylland
1
3
L
H2H at home: Fredrikstad
22.03.25
H2H
Fredrikstad
Lillestrom
1
0
W
20.10.24
H2H
Fredrikstad
Lillestrom
2
1
W
04.03.22
H2H
Fredrikstad
Lillestrom
1
1
D
Last matches: Lillestrom
20.06.26
Fri
Lillestrom
FC Midtjylland
0
1
L
25.05.26
Eli
Lillestrom
Ham-Kam
0
2
L
10.05.26
Eli
Lillestrom
Rosenborg
0
2
L
19.04.26
Eli
Lillestrom
Valerenga
2
0
W
15.04.26
Eli
Lillestrom
Tromso
0
0
D
06.04.26
Eli
Lillestrom
Molde
1
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
Lillestrom
Orgryte IS
0
1
L
15.03.26
Eli
Lillestrom
Aalesund
3
1
W
27.02.26
Fri
Lillestrom
Tromso
0
0
D
H2H away: Lillestrom
22.03.25
H2H
Fredrikstad
Lillestrom
1
0
L
20.10.24
H2H
Fredrikstad
Lillestrom
2
1
L
04.03.22
H2H
Fredrikstad
Lillestrom
1
1
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.42
Draw 3.42
Home 3.05
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.97
Draw 2.38
Home 3.56
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.24
Over 2.25 1.56
Over 2.5 1.78
Over 2.75 1.99
Over 3.0 2.29
Over 3.25 2.60
Over 3.5 2.88
Over 4.5 5.40
Under 1.5 4.30
Under 2.25 2.51
Under 2.5 2.11
Under 2.75 1.89
Under 3.0 1.66
Under 3.25 1.53
Under 3.5 1.44
Under 4.5 1.17
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.40
Draw 3.30
Home 2.90
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.00
Draw 2.25
Home 3.40
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.62
Draw 2.50
Home 3.00
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 1.5 1.22
Over 2.5 1.80
Over 3.5 2.75
Over 4.5 5.50
Over 5.5 11.00
Over 6.5 23.00
Over 7.5 51.00
Under 0.5 12.00
Under 1.5 4.00
Under 2.5 2.00
Under 3.5 1.40
Under 4.5 1.14
Under 5.5 1.05
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.39
Draw 3.40
Home 2.99
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.93
Draw 2.09
Home 3.52
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.56
Draw 2.55
Home 3.10
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 0.75 1.01
Over 1.0 1.04
Over 1.25 1.09
Over 1.5 1.18
Over 1.75 1.25
Over 2.0 1.31
Over 2.25 1.56
Over 2.5 1.76
Over 2.75 1.87
Over 3.0 2.17
Over 3.25 2.42
Over 3.5 2.71
Over 3.75 3.20
Over 4.0 4.30
Over 4.25 4.70
Over 4.5 5.05
Over 4.75 6.40
Over 5.0 9.20
Over 5.5 10.50
Over 6.5 23.00
Over 7.5 50.00
Under 0.5 10.40
Under 0.75 8.65
Under 1.0 7.80
Under 1.25 5.36
Under 1.5 3.90
Under 1.75 3.46
Under 2.0 3.05
Under 2.25 2.46
Under 2.5 2.08
Under 2.75 1.80
Under 3.0 1.59
Under 3.25 1.45
Under 3.5 1.36
Under 3.75 1.26
Under 4.0 1.14
Under 4.25 1.12
Under 4.5 1.10
Under 4.75 1.05
Under 5.0 1.00
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.38
Draw 3.30
Home 2.80
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.88
Draw 2.28
Home 3.20
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.63
Draw 2.63
Home 2.95
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.21
Over 2.0 1.30
Over 2.25 1.50
Over 2.5 1.68
Over 2.75 1.86
Over 3.0 2.15
Over 3.25 2.43
Over 3.5 2.70
Over 3.75 3.20
Over 4.0 4.20
Over 4.25 4.50
Over 4.5 4.90
Under 1.5 3.90
Under 2.0 3.10
Under 2.25 2.38
Under 2.5 2.02
Under 2.75 1.82
Under 3.0 1.61
Under 3.25 1.48
Under 3.5 1.40
Under 3.75 1.29
Under 4.0 1.18
Under 4.25 1.15
Under 4.5 1.13

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 9 0 1 29:10 19 27
W W W W W
2 13 7 4 2 18:14 4 25
D D L W D
3 11 7 2 2 28:11 17 23
D W W W L
4 11 6 1 4 17:11 6 19
L L W L W
5 11 6 1 4 18:13 5 19
W L W L W
6 10 5 2 3 17:16 1 17
D W L W D
7 11 4 2 5 13:16 -3 14
W W L W L
8 11 4 2 5 10:13 -3 14
L D L W W
9 11 4 2 5 13:17 -4 14
W L W L D
10 11 4 2 5 15:20 -5 14
W D W L L
11 12 4 1 7 24:20 4 13
L L L W W
12 11 3 3 5 12:17 -5 12
D W L L D
13 11 2 5 4 15:20 -5 11
D D W W L
14 11 3 2 6 11:18 -7 11
L L W L L
15 11 2 3 6 9:18 -9 9
D L L W L
16 12 1 4 7 13:28 -15 7
L W L L D
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen

Missing Players

Fredrikstad 3 missing
-
S. Kvile
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
S. Owusu
Questionable Muscle Injury
OUT
-
S. Sorlokk
Questionable Foot Injury
OUT
Lillestrom 5 missing
-
E. B. Garnas
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
-
E. Kitolano
Questionable Broken Leg
OUT
-
L. Ranger
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
H. Woxen
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
K. Arierhi
Questionable Injury
OUT