NORWAY ELITESERIEN
--.--.---- --:--
Fredrikstad Stadion
Referee: S. Kringstad
Fredrikstad
Match Timeline
Lillestrom
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
15'
Markus Karlsbakk
Lillestrom
🟨
43'
Max Nilsson
Fredrikstad
🔄
59'
Markus Karlsbakk ↔ Kevin Martin Krygard
Lillestrom
🔄
59'
Karl Linus Alperud ↔ Felix Vá
Lillestrom
🟨
60'
Simen Rafn
Fredrikstad
🟨
61'
Daniel Eid
Fredrikstad
62'
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim · Assist: Salieu Drammeh
Lillestrom
🔄
68'
Salim Laghzaoui ↔ Leonard Owusu
Fredrikstad
73'
Thomas Lehne Olsen · Assist: Felix Vá
Lillestrom
🔄
73'
Benjamin Faraas ↔ Johannes Núñez
Fredrikstad
🔄
84'
Fanuel Ghebreyohannes Yrga-Alem ↔ Aleksander Andresen
Fredrikstad
🔄
84'
Oskar Øhlenschlaeger ↔ Jonathan Norbye
Fredrikstad
🔄
84'
Max Nilsson ↔ Joachim Nysveen
Fredrikstad
🔄
90'
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim ↔ Harald Woxen
Lillestrom
🔄
90'
Salieu Drammeh ↔ Sander Moen Foss
Lillestrom
🔄
90'
Thomas Lehne Olsen ↔ Kparobo Arierhi
Lillestrom

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.5%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Fredrikstad Win 53.5%
Draw 6.2%
Lillestrom Win 40.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fredrikstad1.53
Lillestrom1.78
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fredrikstad Fredrikstad
WWDLW
33 GF / 32 GA
Lillestrom Lillestrom
WLDWL
47 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.57
Average Goals Scored
1.96
1.52
Average Goals Conceded
1.46
16
BTTS Yes
13
13
Over 2.5
14
4.09
Shots on Goal
4.64

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fredrikstad Fredrikstad 21 matches
Lillestrom Lillestrom 24 matches
Fredrikstad Statistic Lillestrom
9 Wins 10
6 Draws 4
6 Losses 10
33 Goals For 47
32 Goals Against 35
1.57 Avg Goals Scored 1.96
1.52 Avg Goals Conceded 1.46
16 BTTS Yes 13
19 Over 1.5 18
13 Over 2.5 14
9 Over 3.5 12
3 Clean Sheets 6
3 Failed To Score 7
4.09 Shots On Goal 4.64
11.91 Total Shots 13.55
4.27 Corners 5.45
48.4% Ball Possession 53.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Lillestrom's more proactive style and Fredrikstad's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Lillestrom. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fredrikstad expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Lillestrom in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lillestrom having the stronger overall control. Lillestrom arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Fredrikstad Analysis

From their first 11 matches, Fredrikstad have collected 14 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. The record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 15:20 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through D. Eid (2 goals), O. Ohlenschlaeger (2 goals), R. R. Shein (2 goals), with creative support from D. Eid (2 assists), O. Ohlenschlaeger (1 assists), R. R. Shein (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lillestrom Analysis

Lillestrom sit 4 with 19 points after 11 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats with a 17:11 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Karlsbakk (4 goals), T. Olsen (3 goals), Felix Va (2 goals), with creative support from Felix Va (4 assists), T. Olsen (1 assists), Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Fredrikstad won 3 times, Lillestrom won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:9 from Fredrikstad's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.8%)
Predicted formations: Fredrikstad 3-4-3 / Lillestrom 4-1-4-1
Missing players: Fredrikstad 3, Lillestrom 5
H2H summary: Fredrikstad wins 3, draws 3, Lillestrom wins 2

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 14 2 2 47:14 33 44
W W W W W
2 18 14 1 3 42:18 24 43
W L W W D
3 18 10 5 3 34:20 14 35
D L W W W
4 18 9 3 6 36:29 7 30
W W L D W
5 18 8 2 8 36:27 9 26
D W W L W
6 18 8 2 8 24:25 -1 26
L D L L L
7 18 8 2 8 22:28 -6 26
W W W W L
8 18 7 3 8 27:26 1 24
L W W L W
9 18 6 5 7 20:23 -3 23
D L L D W
10 18 6 5 7 26:32 -6 23
D L D W L
11 18 6 3 9 31:38 -7 21
L D L L W
12 18 5 4 9 15:23 -8 19
D W L L L
13 18 5 4 9 20:31 -11 19
L D W W L
14 18 4 4 10 17:29 -12 16
D L W L L
15 18 2 9 7 28:43 -15 15
L D D L D
16 18 3 4 11 20:39 -19 13
W L L W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen