COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
20.09.2026 19:00
Estadio Metropolitano de Techo
Referee: Ferney·Ossa·Orozco
Fortaleza FC
Match Timeline
Junior
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
16'
Jhon Solis
Fortaleza FC
🟥
17'
Jhon Solis
Fortaleza FC
19'
Jermein Pena
Junior
🟨
24'
A. Mosquera
Fortaleza FC
26'
Teófilo Gutiérrez
Junior
🟨
46'
Francisco Fydriszewski
Junior
48'
Déiber Caicedo · Assist: Yeison Abelardo Suarez Vasquez
Junior
53'
Francisco Fydriszewski
Junior
🔄
54'
Mariano Vázquez ↔ Santiago Cuero
Fortaleza FC
🔄
54'
A. Mosquera ↔ David Esteban Ramirez Pisciotti
Fortaleza FC
🔄
60'
Francisco Fydriszewski ↔ Guillermo Paiva
Junior
🔄
62'
Juan Sebastian Herrera ↔ Franco Pulicastro
Fortaleza FC
🔄
62'
Santiago Vivas Vélez ↔ Jordan Garcia
Fortaleza FC
65'
Yesid Díaz
Fortaleza FC
🔄
69'
Déiber Caicedo ↔ Cristian Barrios
Junior
🔄
69'
Teófilo Gutiérrez ↔ Yimmi Chará
Junior
🟨
80'
Sebastian Navarro
Fortaleza FC
🔄
80'
Sebastian Navarro ↔ Brandón Andrés Mejía Fajardo
Fortaleza FC
🔄
83'
Jermein Pena ↔ Andrés Shmalbach
Junior
🔄
83'
Fabian Bernal ↔ Juan David Ríos
Junior
🟨
88'
Santiago Cuero
Fortaleza FC

Fortaleza FC vs Junior Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.9%
Odds 2.85
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 2.10
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.9%
2.85
BTTS Yes
86%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
2.10
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.5%
1.34
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.75
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
Fortaleza FC Win 55.9%
Draw 7.3%
Junior Win 36.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fortaleza FC1.23
Junior1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC
WWDLW
32 GF / 39 GA
Junior Junior
WLDWL
51 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
1.34
1.39
Average Goals Conceded
1.37
20
BTTS Yes
20
14
Over 2.5
18
3.68
Shots on Goal
4.18

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC 28 matches
Junior Junior 38 matches
Fortaleza FC Statistic Junior
6 Wins 14
12 Draws 9
10 Losses 15
32 Goals For 51
39 Goals Against 52
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.34
1.39 Avg Goals Conceded 1.37
20 BTTS Yes 20
23 Over 1.5 30
14 Over 2.5 18
6 Over 3.5 8
6 Clean Sheets 9
5 Failed To Score 10
3.68 Shots On Goal 4.18
11.54 Total Shots 13.13
4.18 Corners 4.79
52.8% Ball Possession 51.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Junior's more proactive style and Fortaleza FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Junior. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Junior carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 35 points while Fortaleza FC sit 15 on 22, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fortaleza FC expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Junior in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Junior having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Fortaleza FC Analysis

With 22 points from 19 games and a place of 15, Fortaleza FC still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 7 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 22:27 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Andrés Arroyo (9 goals), Italo Montaño Cortes (3 goals), Richardson Rivas (3 goals), with creative support from Andrés Arroyo (4 assists), S. Navarro (3 assists), Italo Montaño Cortes (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Junior Analysis

Junior arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 35 points after 19 matches. Their overall return of 11 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 31:24 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by L. Muriel (14 goals), T. Gutiérrez (6 goals), C. Barrios (5 goals), with creative support from G. Paiva (5 assists), T. Gutiérrez (3 assists), Y. Súarez (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Fortaleza FC won 2 times, Junior won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:10 from Fortaleza FC's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.71 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.8%)
Predicted formations: Fortaleza FC 4-3-3 / Junior 4-4-2
H2H summary: Fortaleza FC wins 2, draws 1, Junior wins 4

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
L W W W W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
W L D D L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
W W D L D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
D L W D W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L W L L W
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
D L L W W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
L W W D W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
L L W D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W W W D D
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W W D D L
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
W D L W W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D L D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D W D D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
W L L L L
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
L D D L D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
L D D D W
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L W W L L
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L L W W D
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
L L D L W
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D L D L W
Post season qualification