BRAZIL SERIE A
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Referee: D. Lacerda

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.8%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Fluminense Win 82.8%
Draw 5.5%
Vasco DA Gama Win 11.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fluminense1.59
Vasco DA Gama1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fluminense Fluminense
WWDLW
55 GF / 41 GA
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
WLDWL
27 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.57
Average Goals Scored
1.13
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.63
25
BTTS Yes
16
17
Over 2.5
14
5.45
Shots on Goal
5.21

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fluminense Fluminense 35 matches
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama 24 matches
Fluminense Statistic Vasco DA Gama
15 Wins 6
13 Draws 7
7 Losses 11
55 Goals For 27
41 Goals Against 39
1.57 Avg Goals Scored 1.13
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1.63
25 BTTS Yes 16
29 Over 1.5 18
17 Over 2.5 14
9 Over 3.5 6
7 Clean Sheets 2
6 Failed To Score 7
5.45 Shots On Goal 5.21
14.85 Total Shots 17.42
5.3 Corners 5.46
61.1% Ball Possession 53.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Fluminense's more proactive style and Vasco DA Gama's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Vasco DA Gama. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Fluminense arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 41 points compared to Vasco DA Gama in 19 on 22, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fluminense expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Vasco DA Gama in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vasco DA Gama having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Vasco DA Gama arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Fluminense Analysis

Fluminense arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 41 points after 24 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 8 draws, and 5 losses, while the 36:29 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on John Kennedy (8 goals), Luciano Acosta (3 goals), Rodrigo Castillo (3 goals), with creative support from Luciano Acosta (3 assists), Agustín Canobbio (2 assists), Guga (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 9 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Vasco DA Gama Analysis

Vasco DA Gama approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 19 with 22 points from 23 matches. The overall return of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 11 defeats with a 24:38 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Andrés Gómez (4 goals), Thiago Mendes (3 goals), Puma Rodríguez (2 goals), with creative support from Puma Rodríguez (3 assists), Cuiabano (2 assists), David (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Fluminense won 5 times, Vasco DA Gama won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:21 from Fluminense's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.5%)
Predicted formations: Fluminense 4-2-3-1 / Vasco DA Gama 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Fluminense wins 5, draws 4, Vasco DA Gama wins 6

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 7 3 45:21 24 52
D W L D W
2 24 14 6 4 48:21 27 48
W L W W D
3 25 13 6 6 37:25 12 45
D W D W D
4 25 11 9 5 39:32 7 42
D W W D D
5 25 10 10 5 37:30 7 40
W W D D D
6 25 11 6 8 35:36 -1 39
L W W W W
7 24 10 6 8 32:28 4 36
W D W D W
8 24 10 5 9 29:25 4 35
L W D L D
9 24 9 7 8 30:31 -1 34
W D W L D
10 25 8 8 9 26:25 1 32
L L L W D
11 24 8 6 10 29:28 1 30
W L D L D
12 24 8 6 10 37:40 -3 30
L L L D W
13 25 8 5 12 24:37 -13 29
L L W L L
14 24 7 8 9 34:36 -2 29
W D W L D
15 24 7 7 10 27:32 -5 28
W L L W D
16 24 6 7 11 27:37 -10 25
D D L L W
17 24 6 7 11 27:39 -12 25
W L L D D
18 25 5 10 10 26:31 -5 25
L D D D D
19 24 5 8 11 28:39 -11 23
L D D L W
20 24 2 8 14 25:49 -24 14
L W D L D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B