Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
82.8%
|
- | |
| BTTS | Yes |
82.5%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
64.5%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
- |
Fluminense
Vasco DA Gama
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Fluminense
35 matches
Vasco DA Gama
24 matches
| Fluminense | Statistic | Vasco DA Gama |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wins | 6 |
| 13 | Draws | 7 |
| 7 | Losses | 11 |
| 55 | Goals For | 27 |
| 41 | Goals Against | 39 |
| 1.57 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.13 |
| 1.17 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.63 |
| 25 | BTTS Yes | 16 |
| 29 | Over 1.5 | 18 |
| 17 | Over 2.5 | 14 |
| 9 | Over 3.5 | 6 |
| 7 | Clean Sheets | 2 |
| 6 | Failed To Score | 7 |
| 5.45 | Shots On Goal | 5.21 |
| 14.85 | Total Shots | 17.42 |
| 5.3 | Corners | 5.46 |
| 61.1% | Ball Possession | 53.5% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Fluminense's more proactive style and Vasco DA Gama's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Vasco DA Gama. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Fluminense arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 41 points compared to Vasco DA Gama in 19 on 22, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fluminense expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Vasco DA Gama in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vasco DA Gama having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Vasco DA Gama arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.
Fluminense arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 41 points after 24 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 8 draws, and 5 losses, while the 36:29 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on John Kennedy (8 goals), Luciano Acosta (3 goals), Rodrigo Castillo (3 goals), with creative support from Luciano Acosta (3 assists), Agustín Canobbio (2 assists), Guga (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 9 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.
Vasco DA Gama approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 19 with 22 points from 23 matches. The overall return of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 11 defeats with a 24:38 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Andrés Gómez (4 goals), Thiago Mendes (3 goals), Puma Rodríguez (2 goals), with creative support from Puma Rodríguez (3 assists), Cuiabano (2 assists), David (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Fluminense won 5 times, Vasco DA Gama won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:21 from Fluminense's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 45:21 | 24 | 52 |
D
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 2 | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 48:21 | 27 | 48 |
W
L
W
W
D
|
|
| 3 | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 37:25 | 12 | 45 |
D
W
D
W
D
|
|
| 4 |
Fluminense
Home
|
25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 39:32 | 7 | 42 |
D
W
W
D
D
|
| 5 | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 37:30 | 7 | 40 |
W
W
D
D
D
|
|
| 6 | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 35:36 | -1 | 39 |
L
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 7 | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 32:28 | 4 | 36 |
W
D
W
D
W
|
|
| 8 | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 29:25 | 4 | 35 |
L
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 9 | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 30:31 | -1 | 34 |
W
D
W
L
D
|
|
| 10 | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 26:25 | 1 | 32 |
L
L
L
W
D
|
|
| 11 | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 29:28 | 1 | 30 |
W
L
D
L
D
|
|
| 12 | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 37:40 | -3 | 30 |
L
L
L
D
W
|
|
| 13 | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 24:37 | -13 | 29 |
L
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 14 | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 34:36 | -2 | 29 |
W
D
W
L
D
|
|
| 15 | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 27:32 | -5 | 28 |
W
L
L
W
D
|
|
| 16 | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 27:37 | -10 | 25 |
D
D
L
L
W
|
|
| 17 |
Vasco DA Gama
Away
|
24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 27:39 | -12 | 25 |
W
L
L
D
D
|
| 18 | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 26:31 | -5 | 25 |
L
D
D
D
D
|
|
| 19 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 28:39 | -11 | 23 |
L
D
D
L
W
|
|
| 20 | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 25:49 | -24 | 14 |
L
W
D
L
D
|