BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio do Maracanã
Referee: W. Sampaio
Fluminense
Match Timeline
Sao Paulo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
19'
John Kennedy · Assist: Guilherme Arana
Fluminense
🟨
30'
André Silva
Sao Paulo
44'
A. Canobbio · Assist: L. Acosta
Fluminense
🔄
61'
L. Acosta ↔ K. Serna
Fluminense
🔄
61'
John Kennedy ↔ R. Castillo
Fluminense
🔄
64'
Cauly ↔ Ferreira
Sao Paulo
🟨
67'
Artur
Sao Paulo
🟨
76'
Enzo Díaz
Sao Paulo
🔄
76'
Wendell ↔ Luan Silva
Sao Paulo
🔄
77'
Andre Silva ↔ G. Tapia
Sao Paulo
79'
Matheus Doria · Assist: Sabino
Sao Paulo
🔄
83'
A. Canobbio ↔ Y. Soteldo
Fluminense
🔄
83'
Nonato ↔ F. Bernal
Fluminense
🟨
86'
Facundo Bernal
Fluminense
🟨
90+8'
Jefferson Savarino
Fluminense
🟨
90+6'
Dória
Sao Paulo
🟨
90'
Damián Bobadilla
Sao Paulo
🔄
90+5'
Lucas Ramon ↔ C. Soares
Sao Paulo

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 80.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
80.8%
-
BTTS BTTS No
17.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Fluminense Win 80.8%
Draw 12.6%
Sao Paulo Win 6.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fluminense1.28
Sao Paulo1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fluminense Fluminense
WWDLW
27 GF / 25 GA
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
WLDWL
21 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.42
Average Goals Scored
1.4
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
1.07
13
BTTS Yes
8
10
Over 2.5
6
5.95
Shots on Goal
3.93

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fluminense Fluminense 19 matches
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 15 matches
Fluminense Statistic Sao Paulo
8 Wins 7
5 Draws 3
6 Losses 5
27 Goals For 21
25 Goals Against 16
1.42 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 1.07
13 BTTS Yes 8
16 Over 1.5 11
10 Over 2.5 6
5 Over 3.5 3
4 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 3
5.95 Shots On Goal 3.93
15.32 Total Shots 11.73
5.21 Corners 6.8
61.4% Ball Possession 52.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Sao Paulo arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Sao Paulo. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Fluminense Analysis

Fluminense arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 27 points after 15 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, while the 25:20 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on John Kennedy (7 goals), Agustín Canobbio (3 goals), Hércules (3 goals), with creative support from L. Acosta (3 assists), J. Savarino (2 assists), Guga (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Sao Paulo Analysis

Sao Paulo approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 4 with 24 points from 15 matches. Their record of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 21:16, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Jonathan Calleri (6 goals), Luciano (5 goals), Ferreira (4 goals), with creative support from Wendell (3 assists), D. Bobadilla (2 assists), Marcos Antonio (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Fluminense won 7 times, Sao Paulo won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:18 from Fluminense's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (93.3%)
Predicted formations: Fluminense 4-2-3-1 / Sao Paulo 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Fluminense 4, Sao Paulo 10
H2H summary: Fluminense wins 7, draws 2, Sao Paulo wins 6
Stats
Fluminense Fluminense
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
7
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
3
3 Corner Kicks 5
13 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 1
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Goal 7
5 Shots off Goal 4
2 Blocked Shots 3
8 Shots insidebox 8
2 Shots outsidebox 6
6 Goalkeeper Saves 1
473 Total passes 468
394 Passes accurate 386
1.48 expected_goals 0.92
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 5 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Fluminense
Formation
Sao Paulo
Fabio
Fabio
Guga
Guga
Ignacio
Ignacio
J. Freytes
J. Freytes
Guilherme Arana
🎯
Guilherme Arana
Nonato
Nonato
Hercules
Hercules
A. Canobbio
A. Canobbio
L. Acosta
🎯
L. Acosta
J. Savarino
J. Savarino
John Kennedy
John Kennedy
Rafael
Rafael
Lucas Ramon
Lucas Ramon
Matheus Doria
Matheus Doria
Sabino
🎯
Sabino
E. Diaz
E. Diaz
D. Bobadilla
D. Bobadilla
Danielzinho
Danielzinho
Artur
Artur
Cauly
Cauly
Wendell
Wendell
Andre Silva
Andre Silva
Fluminense 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Fabio
G
23
Guga
D
4
Ignacio
D
22
J. Freytes
D
13
Guilherme Arana
🎯 19'
D
16
Nonato
↓ 83'
M
35
Hercules
M
17
A. Canobbio
⚽ 44' ↓ 83'
M
32
L. Acosta
🎯 44' ↓ 61'
M
11
J. Savarino
🟨 90+8'
M
9
John Kennedy
⚽ 19' ↓ 61'
F
Substitutes
98
Vitor Eudes
G
10
PH Ganso
M
2
Samuel Xavier
D
3
Jemmes
D
21
Igor Rabello
D
94
Otavio
M
14
G. Cano
F
6
Rene
D
7
Y. Soteldo
↑ 83'
F
90
K. Serna
↑ 61'
F
19
R. Castillo
↑ 61'
F
5
F. Bernal
↑ 83' 🟨 86'
M
Sao Paulo 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
23
Rafael
G
19
Lucas Ramon
↓ 90+5'
4
Matheus Doria
⚽ 79' 🟨 90+6'
D
35
Sabino
🎯 79'
D
13
E. Diaz
🟨 76'
D
16
D. Bobadilla
🟨 90'
M
94
Danielzinho
M
37
Artur
🟨 67'
M
80
Cauly
↓ 64'
M
18
Wendell
↓ 76'
M
17
Andre Silva
↓ 77' 🟨 30'
F
Substitutes
31
Carlos Coronel
G
21
C. Soares
↑ 90+5'
D
11
Ferreira
↑ 64'
F
33
Luan Silva
↑ 76'
M
30
Felipe Negrucci
M
38
Hugo Leonardo
D
54
Luis Osorio
D
46
Pedro Ferreira
M
45
Lucca Marques
F
14
G. Tapia
↑ 77'
F
15
Joao Moreira
D
48
Djhordney
M
Last matches: Fluminense
17.07.26
Ser
Fluminense
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
12.07.26
Fri
Fluminense
Bahia
2
0
W
08.07.26
Fri
Fluminense
Nova Iguaçu
6
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
28.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
3
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Mirassol
0
1
L
19.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Bolívar
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Vitoria
2
2
D
07.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Internacional
0
2
L
30.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Bolívar
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Santos
3
2
W
16.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Flamengo
1
2
L
07.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Coritiba
1
1
D
02.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Corinthians
3
1
W
21.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Atletico-MG
1
0
W
19.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Vasco DA Gama
2
3
L
Last matches: Sao Paulo
23.07.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Atletico Paranaense
1
2
L
31.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Remo
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Botafogo
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Corinthians
2
3
L
03.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Bahia
2
2
D
26.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Mirassol
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Vasco DA Gama
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Vitoria
0
2
L
04.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Cruzeiro
4
1
W
01.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Internacional
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Palmeiras
0
1
L
18.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
15.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
12.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
25.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
1
0
W
12.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Gremio
2
0
W
04.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Santos
1
1
D
29.01.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Flamengo
2
1
W
H2H: Fluminense vs Sao Paulo
16.05.26
H2H
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
27.11.25
H2H
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
6
0
W
27.07.25
H2H
Sao Paulo
Fluminense
3
1
L
01.09.24
H2H
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
2
0
W
13.05.24
H2H
Sao Paulo
Fluminense
2
1
L
23.11.23
H2H
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
1
0
W
01.07.23
H2H
Sao Paulo
Fluminense
1
0
L
05.11.22
H2H
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
3
1
W
17.07.22
H2H
Sao Paulo
Fluminense
2
2
D
12.09.21
H2H
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
30.05.21
H2H
Sao Paulo
Fluminense
0
0
D
27.12.20
H2H
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
1
2
L
06.09.20
H2H
Sao Paulo
Fluminense
3
1
L
07.11.19
H2H
Sao Paulo
Fluminense
0
2
W
27.07.19
H2H
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
1
2
L
Last matches: Fluminense
17.07.26
Ser
Fluminense
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
12.07.26
Fri
Fluminense
Bahia
2
0
W
08.07.26
Fri
Fluminense
Nova Iguaçu
6
1
W
28.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Deportivo La Guaira
3
1
W
19.05.26
CON
Fluminense
Bolívar
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Fluminense
Vitoria
2
2
D
26.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
16.04.26
CON
Fluminense
Independ. Rivadavia
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Flamengo
1
2
L
02.04.26
Ser
Fluminense
Corinthians
3
1
W
21.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Atletico-MG
1
0
W
15.03.26
Ser
Fluminense
Atletico Paranaense
3
2
W
12.02.26
Ser
Fluminense
Botafogo
1
0
W
28.01.26
Ser
Fluminense
Gremio
2
1
W
H2H at home: Fluminense
16.05.26
H2H
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
27.11.25
H2H
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
6
0
W
01.09.24
H2H
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
2
0
W
23.11.23
H2H
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
1
0
W
05.11.22
H2H
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
3
1
W
12.09.21
H2H
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
27.12.20
H2H
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
1
2
L
27.07.19
H2H
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
1
2
L
Last matches: Sao Paulo
31.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Remo
0
1
L
10.05.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Corinthians
2
3
L
18.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Vasco DA Gama
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Vitoria
0
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Internacional
1
1
D
18.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Atletico-MG
0
1
L
15.03.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
25.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Coritiba
1
0
W
04.02.26
Ser
Sao Paulo
Santos
1
1
D
H2H away: Sao Paulo
16.05.26
H2H
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
2
1
L
27.11.25
H2H
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
6
0
L
01.09.24
H2H
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
2
0
L
23.11.23
H2H
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
1
0
L
05.11.22
H2H
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
3
1
L
12.09.21
H2H
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
2
1
L
27.12.20
H2H
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
1
2
W
27.07.19
H2H
Fluminense
Sao Paulo
1
2
W

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 5 1 33:14 19 44
W W W D D
2 18 11 4 3 35:16 19 37
W W L D W
3 19 10 3 6 26:19 7 33
W W W D L
4 19 9 5 5 29:24 5 32
D D L W D
5 19 9 3 7 26:20 6 30
D W W W L
6 19 8 6 5 28:24 4 30
D W W L D
7 19 7 6 6 21:19 2 27
W W W L W
8 19 7 6 6 26:29 -3 27
W D W D W
9 19 7 5 7 33:32 1 26
D W L D W
10 19 7 5 7 25:27 -2 26
L L W W D
11 19 7 5 7 22:25 -3 26
D W L W L
12 19 7 4 8 24:22 2 25
L L D L L
13 19 7 4 8 23:24 -1 25
D W L W D
14 19 5 6 8 22:24 -2 21
L L L W D
15 19 5 6 8 27:31 -4 21
L W L L W
16 19 5 6 8 21:25 -4 21
L L W D L
17 19 5 5 9 22:30 -8 20
L L L L W
18 18 5 4 9 20:25 -5 19
W L W L D
19 19 4 6 9 21:32 -11 18
L W L W D
20 19 1 6 12 17:39 -22 9
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Fluminense 4 missing
-
G. Cano
Questionable Muscle Injury
OUT
-
Matheus Reis
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Alisson
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
Martinelli
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
Sao Paulo 10 missing
-
Lucas Moura
Questionable Achilles Tendon Injury
OUT
-
A. Franco
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
Jonathan Calleri
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
Luciano
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
Pablo Maia
Missing Fixture Broken nose
OUT
-
Lucas Ramon
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
R. Toloi
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
Marcos Antonio
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
Maik
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
Robert Arboleda
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT