BRAZIL SERIE A
15.08.2026 19:30
Estádio do Maracanã
Referee: Anderson Daronco, Brazil
Fluminense
Match Timeline
Palmeiras
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
10'
G. Gomez · Assist: J. Piquerez
Palmeiras
🟨
34'
Joaquín Piquerez
Palmeiras
42'
Hulk · Assist: A. Canobbio
Fluminense
🔄
46'
J. Piquerez ↔ Arthur Gabriel
Palmeiras
🔄
46'
Vitor Roque ↔ R. Sosa
Palmeiras
🔄
54'
Igor Rabello ↔ J. Millan
Fluminense
🟨
61'
Guga
Fluminense
🟨
63'
Agustín Canobbio
Fluminense
🔄
69'
PH Ganso ↔ L. Acosta
Fluminense
🔄
69'
Hulk ↔ G. Cano
Fluminense
🟨
73'
Arthur Gabriel
Palmeiras
🔄
73'
Andreas Pereira ↔ Mauricio
Palmeiras
🔄
73'
J. Arias ↔ E. Martinez
Palmeiras
🟨
78'
Luciano Acosta
Fluminense
🔄
79'
Hercules ↔ Nonato
Fluminense
🔄
79'
Y. Soteldo ↔ K. Serna
Fluminense
🔄
80'
↔ Felipe Anderson
Palmeiras
82'
Mauricio · Assist: J. Lopez
Palmeiras
85'
K. Serna
Fluminense
🟨
86'
Martinelli
Fluminense
🟨
90+5'
Gustavo Gómez
Palmeiras
90'
G. Cano · Assist: Martinelli
Fluminense

Fluminense vs Palmeiras Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 50.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
50.6%
-
BTTS Yes
63.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Fluminense Win 37.4%
Draw 12%
Palmeiras Win 50.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fluminense1.19
Palmeiras1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fluminense Fluminense
WWDLW
46 GF / 34 GA
Palmeiras Palmeiras
WLDWL
49 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.48
Average Goals Scored
1.69
1.1
Average Goals Conceded
0.76
21
BTTS Yes
18
14
Over 2.5
14
5.45
Shots on Goal
4.93

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fluminense Fluminense 31 matches
Palmeiras Palmeiras 29 matches
Fluminense Statistic Palmeiras
13 Wins 17
11 Draws 9
7 Losses 3
46 Goals For 49
34 Goals Against 22
1.48 Avg Goals Scored 1.69
1.1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.76
21 BTTS Yes 18
25 Over 1.5 21
14 Over 2.5 14
7 Over 3.5 6
7 Clean Sheets 10
6 Failed To Score 3
5.45 Shots On Goal 4.93
15.1 Total Shots 15.17
5.28 Corners 5.93
60.7% Ball Possession 54.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Palmeiras carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 47 points while Fluminense sit 4 on 34, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fluminense expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Palmeiras in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Palmeiras having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Palmeiras look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Palmeiras.

Fluminense Analysis

Fluminense come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 34 points from 21 matches. The record of 9 wins, 7 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 30:25 goal balance, points toward poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their attacking threat comes through John Kennedy (8 goals), Luciano Acosta (3 goals), Rodrigo Castillo (3 goals), with creative support from Luciano Acosta (3 assists), Agustín Canobbio (2 assists), Guga (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Palmeiras Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 47 points from 21 games, Palmeiras bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 14 wins, 5 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 38:16, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through José Manuel López (6 goals), Allan (4 goals), Ramón Sosa (4 goals), with creative support from Andreas Pereira (9 assists), José Manuel López (3 assists), Joaquín Piquerez (3 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Fluminense won 6 times, Palmeiras won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:15 from Fluminense's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.1%)
Predicted formations: Fluminense 4-2-3-1 / Palmeiras 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Fluminense wins 6, draws 4, Palmeiras wins 5

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 18 6 4 55:23 32 60
W W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 14 7 7 43:32 11 49
W D L D W
4 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
5 28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 27 11 7 9 36:32 4 40
D W L W D
8 27 10 8 9 41:40 1 38
W W W W D
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 27 10 6 11 33:31 2 36
L D L L W
11 27 10 6 11 32:30 2 36
W L W W L
12 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
13 28 9 6 13 28:42 -14 33
L D W L L
14 28 8 8 12 29:32 -3 32
L L L L L
15 28 8 8 12 33:42 -9 32
W D W L D
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 28 7 8 13 30:38 -8 29
D L L L W
18 28 6 10 12 30:36 -6 28
L W L L D
19 28 5 8 15 32:47 -15 23
L L L L L
20 27 3 9 15 29:53 -24 18
D L W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B