BRAZIL SERIE A
13.09.2026 20:30

Flamengo vs Corinthians Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.5%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Flamengo Win 71.5%
Draw 3.7%
Corinthians Win 24.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Flamengo1.58
Corinthians0.96
Recent Form (Last 5)
Flamengo Flamengo
WWDLW
75 GF / 30 GA
Corinthians Corinthians
WLDWL
37 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
2.03
Average Goals Scored
1.06
0.81
Average Goals Conceded
0.91
19
BTTS Yes
16
21
Over 2.5
10
5.79
Shots on Goal
3.85

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Flamengo Flamengo 37 matches
Corinthians Corinthians 35 matches
Flamengo Statistic Corinthians
24 Wins 12
9 Draws 12
4 Losses 11
75 Goals For 37
30 Goals Against 32
2.03 Avg Goals Scored 1.06
0.81 Avg Goals Conceded 0.91
19 BTTS Yes 16
34 Over 1.5 24
21 Over 2.5 10
8 Over 3.5 4
16 Clean Sheets 15
2 Failed To Score 9
5.79 Shots On Goal 3.85
15.94 Total Shots 12.15
4.76 Corners 4.74
56.8% Ball Possession 55.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Flamengo come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Corinthians. Flamengo arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 51 points compared to Corinthians in 11 on 32, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Flamengo Analysis

Flamengo approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 51 points after 25 outings. They have recorded 15 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, with a 50:21 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on Pedro (14 goals), Samuel Lino (8 goals), J. Carrascal (5 goals), with creative support from Samuel Lino (7 assists), J. Carrascal (6 assists), Pedro (5 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Corinthians Analysis

Corinthians sit 11 with 32 points after 25 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 9 defeats with a 26:25 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Rodrigo Garro (3 goals), Yuri Alberto (3 goals), André Luiz (3 goals), with creative support from Rodrigo Garro (6 assists), Yuri Alberto (2 assists), André Luiz (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Flamengo won 7 times, Corinthians won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:10 from Flamengo's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.3%)
Predicted formations: Flamengo 4-2-3-1 / Corinthians 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Flamengo wins 7, draws 5, Corinthians wins 3

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 16 6 4 51:21 30 54
W W W L W
2 26 15 8 3 45:21 24 53
D D W L D
3 26 13 6 7 38:28 10 45
L D W D W
4 26 12 9 5 40:32 8 45
W D W W D
5 26 11 10 5 40:32 8 43
W W W D D
6 26 12 6 8 38:37 1 42
W L W W W
7 26 10 7 9 34:35 -1 37
L W W D W
8 25 10 6 9 32:30 2 36
L W D W D
9 25 10 5 10 31:28 3 35
L L W D L
10 25 9 6 10 31:28 3 33
W W L D L
11 26 9 5 12 25:37 -12 32
W L L W L
12 26 8 8 10 27:27 0 32
L L L L W
13 25 8 8 9 37:38 -1 32
W W D W L
14 25 8 7 10 37:40 -3 31
D L L L D
15 25 7 7 11 27:33 -6 28
L W L L W
16 26 7 7 12 29:40 -11 28
W L D D L
17 25 6 7 12 27:40 -13 25
L W L L D
18 26 5 10 11 28:34 -6 25
L L D D D
19 26 5 8 13 30:43 -13 23
L L L D D
20 25 3 8 14 27:50 -23 17
W L W D L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B