BRAZIL SERIE A
30.08.2026 19:00
Estádio do Maracanã
Referee: Alex Gomes Stefano
Flamengo
Match Timeline
Botafogo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
9'
Arthur Cabral
Botafogo
13'
Samuel Lino · Assist: Jorginho
Flamengo
🔄
21'
Alex Telles ↔ L. Monzon
Botafogo
🔄
46'
A. Montoro ↔ Danilo Pereira
Botafogo
🔄
57'
Luiz Araujo ↔ Lucas Paqueta
Flamengo
🔄
66'
Edenilson ↔ C. Medina
Botafogo
🔄
75'
G. de Arrascaeta ↔ J. Carrascal
Flamengo
🔄
77'
Vitinho ↔ Junior Santos
Botafogo
🔄
77'
Arthur Cabral ↔ L. M. Villalba Jaume
Botafogo
🟨
83'
Marçal
Botafogo
86'
Samuel Lino · Assist: J. Carrascal
Flamengo
🔄
87'
Pedro ↔ Everton
Flamengo
🟨
89'
Gabriel Justino
Botafogo
89'
J. Carrascal · Assist: Everton
Flamengo

Flamengo vs Botafogo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74.5%
Odds 1.41
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.64
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74.5%
1.41
BTTS Yes
63.2%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
1.64
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.17
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.20
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Flamengo Win 74.5%
Draw 3.9%
Botafogo Win 21.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Flamengo1.81
Botafogo1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Flamengo Flamengo
WWDLW
69 GF / 30 GA
Botafogo Botafogo
WLDWL
40 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
2.03
Average Goals Scored
1.48
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.48
19
BTTS Yes
18
20
Over 2.5
16
5.87
Shots on Goal
5.07

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Flamengo Flamengo 34 matches
Botafogo Botafogo 27 matches
Flamengo Statistic Botafogo
21 Wins 9
9 Draws 7
4 Losses 11
69 Goals For 40
30 Goals Against 40
2.03 Avg Goals Scored 1.48
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.48
19 BTTS Yes 18
32 Over 1.5 21
20 Over 2.5 16
8 Over 3.5 9
13 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 6
5.87 Shots On Goal 5.07
15.77 Total Shots 14
4.47 Corners 4.37
56.4% Ball Possession 49.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Botafogo. Flamengo arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 45 points compared to Botafogo in 11 on 30, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Flamengo Analysis

Flamengo come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 45 points after 22 matches. The return of 13 wins, 6 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 44:19, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Pedro Guilherme (14 goals), Samuel Lino (6 goals), Jorge Carrascal (3 goals), with creative support from Samuel Lino (7 assists), Pedro Guilherme (4 assists), Jorge Carrascal (4 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Botafogo Analysis

So far, Botafogo have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 30 points from 22 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, while the 35:34 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Danilo Santos (7 goals), Arthur Cabral (7 goals), Edenilson (4 goals), with creative support from Alex Telles (3 assists), Álvaro Montoro (3 assists), Danilo Santos (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Flamengo won 10 times, Botafogo won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:14 from Flamengo's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.1%)
Predicted formations: Flamengo 4-2-3-1 / Botafogo 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Flamengo 4, Botafogo 3
H2H summary: Flamengo wins 10, draws 1, Botafogo wins 4

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 17 6 4 53:22 31 57
W W W W L
2 27 16 8 3 47:21 26 56
W D D W L
3 27 13 7 7 41:31 10 46
D L D W D
4 27 12 10 5 42:33 9 46
W W W W D
5 27 12 9 6 41:35 6 45
L W D W W
6 27 12 6 9 39:39 0 42
L W L W W
7 26 11 6 9 35:31 4 39
W L W D W
8 27 10 8 9 37:38 -1 38
D L W W D
9 26 10 6 10 32:29 3 36
D L L W D
10 26 9 8 9 39:39 0 35
W W W D W
11 26 9 6 11 31:30 1 33
L W W L D
12 27 9 6 12 27:39 -12 33
D W L L W
13 27 8 8 11 28:29 -1 32
L L L L L
14 26 8 8 10 38:41 -3 32
D D L L L
15 27 7 8 12 31:42 -11 29
D W L D D
16 26 7 7 12 28:35 -7 28
L L W L L
17 26 7 7 12 29:41 -12 28
W L W L L
18 27 6 10 11 30:35 -5 28
W L L D D
19 27 5 8 14 31:45 -14 23
L L L L D
20 26 3 8 15 28:52 -24 17
L W L W D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B