Flamengo vs Bahia Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
66%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
70.7%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
62%
|
- |
Flamengo
Bahia
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Flamengo
12 matches
Bahia
12 matches
| Flamengo | Statistic | Bahia |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Wins | 7 |
| 2 | Draws | 2 |
| 2 | Losses | 3 |
| 24 | Goals For | 17 |
| 11 | Goals Against | 12 |
| 2 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.42 |
| 0.92 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1 |
| 7 | BTTS Yes | 7 |
| 12 | Over 1.5 | 9 |
| 8 | Over 2.5 | 6 |
| 2 | Over 3.5 | 1 |
| 4 | Clean Sheets | 4 |
| 1 | Failed To Score | 1 |
| 5.33 | Shots On Goal | 4.83 |
| 15 | Total Shots | 12 |
| 4.08 | Corners | 5.33 |
| 54% | Ball Possession | 54.5% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Bahia. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Flamengo expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Bahia in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bahia having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.
Flamengo come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 20 points after 10 matches. The return of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 18:10, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Pedro (5 goals), Lucas Paquetá (2 goals), Samuel Lino (2 goals), with creative support from Samuel Lino (3 assists), Pedro (2 assists), Guillermo Varela (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with E. Pulgar, Jorginho, J. Carrascal unavailable.
Bahia come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 20 points after 10 matches. With 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 15:10, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Luciano Juba (4 goals), Everaldo (3 goals), David Duarte (2 goals), with creative support from Jean Lucas (2 assists), Everton Ribeiro (2 assists), Luciano Juba (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with Kanu, Ruan Pablo, Ronaldo Strada unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Flamengo won 13 times, Bahia won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 33:14 from Flamengo's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 45:21 | 24 | 52 |
D
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 2 |
Flamengo
Home
|
24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 48:21 | 27 | 48 |
W
L
W
W
D
|
| 3 | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 37:25 | 12 | 45 |
D
W
D
W
D
|
|
| 4 | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 39:32 | 7 | 42 |
D
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 5 |
Bahia
Away
|
25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 37:30 | 7 | 40 |
W
W
D
D
D
|
| 6 | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 35:36 | -1 | 39 |
L
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 7 | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 33:33 | 0 | 37 |
W
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 8 | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 32:28 | 4 | 36 |
W
D
W
D
W
|
|
| 9 | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 29:25 | 4 | 35 |
L
W
D
L
D
|
|
| 10 | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 26:25 | 1 | 32 |
L
L
L
W
D
|
|
| 11 | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 29:28 | 1 | 30 |
W
L
D
L
D
|
|
| 12 | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 37:40 | -3 | 30 |
L
L
L
D
W
|
|
| 13 | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 24:37 | -13 | 29 |
L
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 14 | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 34:36 | -2 | 29 |
W
D
W
L
D
|
|
| 15 | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 27:32 | -5 | 28 |
W
L
L
W
D
|
|
| 16 | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 27:37 | -10 | 25 |
D
D
L
L
W
|
|
| 17 | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 27:39 | -12 | 25 |
W
L
L
D
D
|
|
| 18 | 25 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 26:31 | -5 | 25 |
L
D
D
D
D
|
|
| 19 | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 30:42 | -12 | 23 |
L
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 20 | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 25:49 | -24 | 14 |
L
W
D
L
D
|