BRAZIL SERIE A
19.04.2026 22:30
Estádio do Maracanã
Referee: F. Rodrigues
Flamengo
Match Timeline
Bahia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
17'
G. de Arrascaeta · Assist: Pedro
Flamengo
🟨
18'
Giorgian de Arrascaeta
Flamengo
🟨
44'
Leo Pereira
Flamengo
🔄
46'
Gilberto ↔ Caio Alexandre
Bahia
🔄
46'
Willian Jose ↔ Everaldo
Bahia
🔄
66'
Samuel Lino ↔ Bruno Henrique
Flamengo
🔄
74'
Erick Pulga ↔ Ademir
Bahia
🔄
74'
Everton Ribeiro ↔ Michel Araujo
Bahia
🔄
79'
Evertton Araujo ↔ S. Niguez
Flamengo
🔄
79'
G. de Arrascaeta ↔ N. de la Cruz
Flamengo
80'
Lucas Paqueta · Assist: S. Niguez
Flamengo
🔄
85'
G. Plata ↔ Luiz Araujo
Flamengo
🔄
85'
Pedro ↔ Everton
Flamengo
🔄
85'
C. Olivera ↔ M. Sanabria
Bahia

Flamengo vs Bahia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 70.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
70.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62%
-
Probability Distribution
Flamengo Win 66%
Draw 0%
Bahia Win 34%
Expected Goals (xG)
Flamengo1.6
Bahia1.22
Recent Form (Last 5)
Flamengo Flamengo
WWDLW
24 GF / 11 GA
Bahia Bahia
WLDWL
17 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
1.42
0.92
Average Goals Conceded
1
7
BTTS Yes
7
8
Over 2.5
6
5.33
Shots on Goal
4.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Flamengo Flamengo 12 matches
Bahia Bahia 12 matches
Flamengo Statistic Bahia
8 Wins 7
2 Draws 2
2 Losses 3
24 Goals For 17
11 Goals Against 12
2 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
0.92 Avg Goals Conceded 1
7 BTTS Yes 7
12 Over 1.5 9
8 Over 2.5 6
2 Over 3.5 1
4 Clean Sheets 4
1 Failed To Score 1
5.33 Shots On Goal 4.83
15 Total Shots 12
4.08 Corners 5.33
54% Ball Possession 54.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Bahia. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Flamengo expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Bahia in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bahia having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Flamengo Analysis

Flamengo come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 20 points after 10 matches. The return of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 18:10, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Pedro (5 goals), Lucas Paquetá (2 goals), Samuel Lino (2 goals), with creative support from Samuel Lino (3 assists), Pedro (2 assists), Guillermo Varela (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with E. Pulgar, Jorginho, J. Carrascal unavailable.

Bahia Analysis

Bahia come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 20 points after 10 matches. With 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 15:10, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Luciano Juba (4 goals), Everaldo (3 goals), David Duarte (2 goals), with creative support from Jean Lucas (2 assists), Everton Ribeiro (2 assists), Luciano Juba (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with Kanu, Ruan Pablo, Ronaldo Strada unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Flamengo won 13 times, Bahia won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 33:14 from Flamengo's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Flamengo 4-2-3-1 / Bahia 4-3-3
Missing players: Flamengo 3, Bahia 2
H2H summary: Flamengo wins 13, draws 0, Bahia wins 2

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 7 3 45:21 24 52
D W L D W
2 24 14 6 4 48:21 27 48
W L W W D
3 25 13 6 6 37:25 12 45
D W D W D
4 25 11 9 5 39:32 7 42
D W W D D
5
Bahia Away
25 10 10 5 37:30 7 40
W W D D D
6 25 11 6 8 35:36 -1 39
L W W W W
7 25 10 7 8 33:33 0 37
W W D W L
8 24 10 6 8 32:28 4 36
W D W D W
9 24 10 5 9 29:25 4 35
L W D L D
10 25 8 8 9 26:25 1 32
L L L W D
11 24 8 6 10 29:28 1 30
W L D L D
12 24 8 6 10 37:40 -3 30
L L L D W
13 25 8 5 12 24:37 -13 29
L L W L L
14 24 7 8 9 34:36 -2 29
W D W L D
15 24 7 7 10 27:32 -5 28
W L L W D
16 24 6 7 11 27:37 -10 25
D D L L W
17 24 6 7 11 27:39 -12 25
W L L D D
18 25 5 10 10 26:31 -5 25
L D D D D
19 25 5 8 12 30:42 -12 23
L L D D L
20 24 2 8 14 25:49 -24 14
L W D L D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B