ITALY › SERIE A
10.05.2026 13:00
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Referee: L. Massimi
Fiorentina
Match Timeline
Genoa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
58'
L. Colombo ↔ C. Ekuban
Genoa
🔄
61'
R. Braschi ↔ R. Piccoli
Fiorentina
🔄
71'
J. Ekhator ↔ R. Malinovskyi
Genoa
🔄
71'
A. Martin ↔ W. L. Ouedraogo
Genoa
🔄
72'
R. Mandragora ↔ M. Brescianini
Fiorentina
🔄
73'
C. Ndour ↔ G. Fabbian
Fiorentina
🔄
82'
A. Marcandalli ↔ M. Doucoure
Genoa
🔄
82'
Amorim ↔ P. Masini
Genoa
🔄
86'
F. Parisi ↔ A. Gudmundsson
Fiorentina

Fiorentina vs Genoa Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.5%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
45.3%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.1%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Fiorentina Win 55.5%
Draw 6.5%
Genoa Win 38%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fiorentina1.32
Genoa1.28
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fiorentina Fiorentina
WWDLW
64 GF / 69 GA
Genoa Genoa
WLDWL
46 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.28
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
1.39
29
BTTS Yes
20
31
Over 2.5
22
4
Shots on Goal
3.92

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fiorentina Fiorentina 50 matches
Genoa Genoa 38 matches
Fiorentina Statistic Genoa
17 Wins 12
13 Draws 10
20 Losses 16
64 Goals For 46
69 Goals Against 53
1.28 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1.39
29 BTTS Yes 20
38 Over 1.5 31
31 Over 2.5 22
12 Over 3.5 8
12 Clean Sheets 9
13 Failed To Score 14
4 Shots On Goal 3.92
13.44 Total Shots 11.66
4.68 Corners 3.71
51.1% Ball Possession 48.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Genoa. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fiorentina expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Genoa in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Genoa having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Fiorentina Analysis

Fiorentina sit 16 with 37 points after 35 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 8 wins, 13 draws, and 14 defeats with a 38:49 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Moise Kean (8 goals), R. Mandragora (6 goals), A. Gudmundsson (5 goals), with creative support from A. Gudmundsson (4 assists), R. Mandragora (3 assists), Nicolò Fagioli (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Genoa Analysis

Genoa approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 40 points from 35 matches. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 10 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 40:48 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Lorenzo Colombo (7 goals), Ruslan Malinovskyi (6 goals), Leo Østigård (5 goals), with creative support from Aarón Martín (5 assists), Ruslan Malinovskyi (3 assists), Alessandro Marcandalli (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Fiorentina won 6 times, Genoa won 1 times, while 8 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:12 from Fiorentina's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.5%)
Predicted formations: Fiorentina 4-3-3 / Genoa 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Fiorentina 2, Genoa 5
H2H summary: Fiorentina wins 6, draws 8, Genoa wins 1

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16
Genoa Away
38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B