Fiorentina vs Genoa Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
55.5%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS No |
45.3%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.2%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
86.1%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-0 |
-
|
- |
Fiorentina
Genoa
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Fiorentina
50 matches
Genoa
38 matches
| Fiorentina | Statistic | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wins | 12 |
| 13 | Draws | 10 |
| 20 | Losses | 16 |
| 64 | Goals For | 46 |
| 69 | Goals Against | 53 |
| 1.28 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.21 |
| 1.38 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.39 |
| 29 | BTTS Yes | 20 |
| 38 | Over 1.5 | 31 |
| 31 | Over 2.5 | 22 |
| 12 | Over 3.5 | 8 |
| 12 | Clean Sheets | 9 |
| 13 | Failed To Score | 14 |
| 4 | Shots On Goal | 3.92 |
| 13.44 | Total Shots | 11.66 |
| 4.68 | Corners | 3.71 |
| 51.1% | Ball Possession | 48.4% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Genoa. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fiorentina expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Genoa in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Genoa having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.
Fiorentina sit 16 with 37 points after 35 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 8 wins, 13 draws, and 14 defeats with a 38:49 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Moise Kean (8 goals), R. Mandragora (6 goals), A. Gudmundsson (5 goals), with creative support from A. Gudmundsson (4 assists), R. Mandragora (3 assists), Nicolò Fagioli (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.
Genoa approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 40 points from 35 matches. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 10 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 40:48 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Lorenzo Colombo (7 goals), Ruslan Malinovskyi (6 goals), Leo Østigård (5 goals), with creative support from Aarón Martín (5 assists), Ruslan Malinovskyi (3 assists), Alessandro Marcandalli (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Fiorentina won 6 times, Genoa won 1 times, while 8 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:12 from Fiorentina's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38 | 27 | 6 | 5 | 89:35 | 54 | 87 |
D
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 2 | 38 | 23 | 7 | 8 | 58:36 | 22 | 76 |
W
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 3 | 38 | 23 | 4 | 11 | 59:31 | 28 | 73 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 65:29 | 36 | 71 |
W
W
W
D
W
|
|
| 5 | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 53:35 | 18 | 70 |
L
W
L
L
D
|
|
| 6 | 38 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 61:34 | 27 | 69 |
D
L
W
D
D
|
|
| 7 | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 51:36 | 15 | 59 |
D
L
W
D
L
|
|
| 8 | 38 | 16 | 8 | 14 | 49:46 | 3 | 56 |
D
W
W
D
L
|
|
| 9 | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 41:40 | 1 | 54 |
W
L
L
W
D
|
|
| 10 | 38 | 14 | 8 | 16 | 45:48 | -3 | 50 |
L
L
W
W
D
|
|
| 11 | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 46:50 | -4 | 49 |
L
L
L
W
D
|
|
| 12 | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 44:63 | -19 | 45 |
D
L
W
L
D
|
|
| 13 | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 28:46 | -18 | 45 |
W
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 14 | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 40:53 | -13 | 43 |
W
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 15 |
Fiorentina
Home
|
38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 41:50 | -9 | 42 |
D
W
D
L
D
|
| 16 |
Genoa
Away
|
38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 41:51 | -10 | 41 |
L
L
D
D
L
|
| 17 | 38 | 10 | 8 | 20 | 28:50 | -22 | 38 |
W
W
L
W
D
|
|
| 18 | 38 | 8 | 10 | 20 | 32:57 | -25 | 34 |
L
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 19 | 38 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 25:61 | -36 | 21 |
L
D
L
D
D
|
|
| 20 | 38 | 2 | 12 | 24 | 26:71 | -45 | 18 |
L
L
L
L
L
|