ITALY SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Referee: M. Perri
Fiorentina
Match Timeline
Atalanta
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
39'
R. Piccoli · Assist: M. Brescianini
Fiorentina
🔄
46'
R. Bellanova ↔ D. Zappacosta
Atalanta
🟨
47'
Kamaldeen Sulemana
Atalanta
🟨
60'
Honest Ahanor
Atalanta
🔄
62'
L. Samardzic ↔ C. De Ketelaere
Atalanta
🔄
67'
D. Rugani ↔ M. Pongracic
Fiorentina
🔄
67'
M. Brescianini ↔ C. Ndour
Fiorentina
🔄
67'
G. Scalvini ↔ B. Djimsiti
Atalanta
🔄
76'
A. Gudmundsson ↔ M. Solomon
Fiorentina
🔄
76'
R. Gosens ↔ L. Balbo
Fiorentina
🔄
81'
K. Sulemana ↔ D. Vavassori
Atalanta
🔄
81'
M. De Roon ↔ G. Scamacca
Atalanta
82'
P. Comuzzo
Atalanta
🔄
87'
O. Christensen ↔ L. Lezzerini
Fiorentina

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 52.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
52.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
35.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
89.6%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Fiorentina Win 36.6%
Draw 10.8%
Atalanta Win 52.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Fiorentina1.22
Atalanta1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
Fiorentina Fiorentina
WWDLW
66 GF / 69 GA
Atalanta Atalanta
WLDWL
76 GF / 61 GA
Key Stats
1.27
Average Goals Scored
1.43
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.15
29
BTTS Yes
27
31
Over 2.5
25
3.94
Shots on Goal
4.57

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Fiorentina Fiorentina 52 matches
Atalanta Atalanta 53 matches
Fiorentina Statistic Atalanta
18 Wins 22
14 Draws 16
20 Losses 15
66 Goals For 76
69 Goals Against 61
1.27 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.15
29 BTTS Yes 27
39 Over 1.5 40
31 Over 2.5 25
12 Over 3.5 14
14 Clean Sheets 18
14 Failed To Score 12
3.94 Shots On Goal 4.57
13.37 Total Shots 14.64
4.62 Corners 5.26
51.1% Ball Possession 53.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Atalanta's more proactive style and Fiorentina's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atalanta. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Atalanta carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 58 points while Fiorentina sit 15 on 41, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fiorentina expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Atalanta in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atalanta having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Fiorentina Analysis

Fiorentina approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 41 points from 37 matches. The overall return of 9 wins, 14 draws, and 14 defeats with a 40:49 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Moise Kean (8 goals), R. Mandragora (7 goals), A. Gudmundsson (5 goals), with creative support from A. Gudmundsson (4 assists), H. Nicolussi Caviglia (4 assists), R. Mandragora (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 8 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with F. Parisi, M. Kean unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Atalanta Analysis

So far, Atalanta have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 58 points from 37 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 15 wins, 13 draws, and 9 losses, while the 50:35 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on G. Scamacca (10 goals), N. Krstovic (10 goals), C. De Ketelaere (3 goals), with creative support from N. Krstovic (5 assists), C. De Ketelaere (5 assists), N. Zalewski (5 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with O. Kossounou, L. Bernasconi unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Fiorentina won 7 times, Atalanta won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:25 from Fiorentina's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.3%)
Predicted formations: Fiorentina 4-3-3 / Atalanta 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Fiorentina 3, Atalanta 2
H2H summary: Fiorentina wins 7, draws 2, Atalanta wins 6
Stats
Fiorentina Fiorentina
Atalanta Atalanta
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
12
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
3
3 Corner Kicks 3
11 Fouls 14
4 Offsides 0
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Goal 6
4 Shots off Goal 12
3 Blocked Shots 3
8 Shots insidebox 11
3 Shots outsidebox 10
6 Goalkeeper Saves 3
409 Total passes 612
350 Passes accurate 552
0.85 expected_goals 1.38
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Fiorentina
Formation
Atalanta
O. Christensen
O. Christensen
Dodo
Dodo
P. Comuzzo
P. Comuzzo
D. Rugani
D. Rugani
R. Gosens
R. Gosens
G. Fabbian
G. Fabbian
R. Mandragora
R. Mandragora
M. Brescianini
🎯
M. Brescianini
J. Harrison
J. Harrison
R. Piccoli
R. Piccoli
A. Gudmundsson
A. Gudmundsson
M. Sportiello
M. Sportiello
G. Scalvini
G. Scalvini
I. Hien
I. Hien
H. Ahanor
H. Ahanor
R. Bellanova
R. Bellanova
M. De Roon
M. De Roon
M. Pasalic
M. Pasalic
Y. Musah
Y. Musah
L. Samardzic
L. Samardzic
K. Sulemana
K. Sulemana
G. Raspadori
G. Raspadori
Fiorentina 4-3-3
Starting XI
53
O. Christensen
↓ 87'
G
2
Dodo
D
15
P. Comuzzo
⚽ 82'
D
3
D. Rugani
↓ 67'
D
21
R. Gosens
↓ 76'
D
80
G. Fabbian
M
8
R. Mandragora
M
4
M. Brescianini
🎯 39' ↓ 67'
M
17
J. Harrison
F
91
R. Piccoli
⚽ 39'
F
10
A. Gudmundsson
↓ 76'
F
Substitutes
43
D. de Gea
G
1
L. Lezzerini
↑ 87'
G
5
M. Pongracic
↑ 67'
D
27
C. Ndour
↑ 67'
M
61
R. Braschi
F
29
N. Fortini
D
19
M. Solomon
↑ 76'
F
44
N. Fagioli
M
62
L. Balbo
↑ 76'
D
69
G. Puzzoli
F
Atalanta 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
57
M. Sportiello
G
42
G. Scalvini
↓ 67'
D
4
I. Hien
D
69
H. Ahanor
🟨 60'
D
16
R. Bellanova
↓ 46'
M
15
M. De Roon
↓ 81'
M
8
M. Pasalic
M
6
Y. Musah
M
10
L. Samardzic
↓ 62'
F
7
K. Sulemana
↓ 81' 🟨 47'
F
18
G. Raspadori
F
Substitutes
29
M. Carnesecchi
G
31
F. Rossi
G
19
B. Djimsiti
↑ 67'
D
23
S. Kolasinac
D
77
D. Zappacosta
↑ 46'
D
13
Ederson
M
45
D. Vavassori
↑ 81'
F
40
R. Obric
D
9
G. Scamacca
↑ 81'
F
5
M. Bakker
D
90
N. Krstovic
F
59
N. Zalewski
M
17
C. De Ketelaere
↑ 62'
F
Last matches: Fiorentina
17.05.26
Ser
Fiorentina
Juventus
2
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Fiorentina
Genoa
0
0
D
04.05.26
Ser
Fiorentina
AS Roma
0
4
L
26.04.26
Ser
Fiorentina
Sassuolo
0
0
D
20.04.26
Ser
Fiorentina
Lecce
1
1
D
16.04.26
UEF
Fiorentina
Crystal Palace
2
1
W
13.04.26
Ser
Fiorentina
Lazio
1
0
W
09.04.26
UEF
Fiorentina
Crystal Palace
0
3
L
04.04.26
Ser
Fiorentina
Hellas Verona
1
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Fiorentina
Inter
1
1
D
19.03.26
UEF
Fiorentina
Raków Częstochowa
2
1
W
16.03.26
Ser
Fiorentina
Cremonese
4
1
W
12.03.26
UEF
Fiorentina
Raków Częstochowa
2
1
W
08.03.26
Ser
Fiorentina
Parma
0
0
D
02.03.26
Ser
Fiorentina
Udinese
0
3
L
26.02.26
UEF
Fiorentina
Jagiellonia
2
4
L
23.02.26
Ser
Fiorentina
Pisa
1
0
W
19.02.26
UEF
Fiorentina
Jagiellonia
3
0
W
14.02.26
Ser
Fiorentina
Como
2
1
W
07.02.26
Ser
Fiorentina
Torino
2
2
D
Last matches: Atalanta
17.05.26
Ser
Atalanta
Bologna
0
1
L
10.05.26
Ser
Atalanta
AC Milan
3
2
W
02.05.26
Ser
Atalanta
Genoa
0
0
D
27.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
Cagliari
2
3
L
22.04.26
Cop
Atalanta
Lazio
1
1
D
18.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
AS Roma
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
Juventus
0
1
L
06.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
Lecce
3
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Hellas Verona
1
0
W
18.03.26
UEF
Atalanta
Bayern München
1
4
L
14.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Inter
1
1
D
10.03.26
UEF
Atalanta
Bayern München
1
6
L
07.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Udinese
2
2
D
04.03.26
Cop
Atalanta
Lazio
2
2
D
01.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Sassuolo
1
2
L
25.02.26
UEF
Atalanta
Borussia Dortmund
4
1
W
22.02.26
Ser
Atalanta
Napoli
2
1
W
17.02.26
UEF
Atalanta
Borussia Dortmund
0
2
L
14.02.26
Ser
Atalanta
Lazio
2
0
W
09.02.26
Ser
Atalanta
Cremonese
2
1
W
H2H: Fiorentina vs Atalanta
22.05.26
H2H
Fiorentina
Atalanta
1
1
D
30.11.25
H2H
Atalanta
Fiorentina
2
0
L
30.03.25
H2H
Fiorentina
Atalanta
1
0
W
15.09.24
H2H
Atalanta
Fiorentina
3
2
L
02.06.24
H2H
Atalanta
Fiorentina
2
3
W
24.04.24
H2H
Atalanta
Fiorentina
4
1
L
03.04.24
H2H
Fiorentina
Atalanta
1
0
W
17.09.23
H2H
Fiorentina
Atalanta
3
2
W
17.04.23
H2H
Fiorentina
Atalanta
1
1
D
02.10.22
H2H
Atalanta
Fiorentina
1
0
L
20.02.22
H2H
Fiorentina
Atalanta
1
0
W
10.02.22
H2H
Atalanta
Fiorentina
2
3
W
11.09.21
H2H
Atalanta
Fiorentina
1
2
W
11.04.21
H2H
Fiorentina
Atalanta
2
3
L
13.12.20
H2H
Atalanta
Fiorentina
3
0
L
Last matches: Fiorentina
10.05.26
Ser
Fiorentina
Genoa
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Fiorentina
Sassuolo
0
0
D
16.04.26
UEF
Fiorentina
Crystal Palace
2
1
W
13.04.26
Ser
Fiorentina
Lazio
1
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Fiorentina
Inter
1
1
D
12.03.26
UEF
Fiorentina
Raków Częstochowa
2
1
W
08.03.26
Ser
Fiorentina
Parma
0
0
D
26.02.26
UEF
Fiorentina
Jagiellonia
2
4
L
23.02.26
Ser
Fiorentina
Pisa
1
0
W
07.02.26
Ser
Fiorentina
Torino
2
2
D
27.01.26
Cop
Fiorentina
Como
1
3
L
24.01.26
Ser
Fiorentina
Cagliari
1
2
L
11.01.26
Ser
Fiorentina
AC Milan
1
1
D
04.01.26
Ser
Fiorentina
Cremonese
1
0
W
21.12.25
Ser
Fiorentina
Udinese
5
1
W
14.12.25
Ser
Fiorentina
Hellas Verona
1
2
L
11.12.25
UEF
Fiorentina
Dynamo Kyiv
2
1
W
27.11.25
UEF
Fiorentina
AEK Athens FC
0
1
L
22.11.25
Ser
Fiorentina
Juventus
1
1
D
02.11.25
Ser
Fiorentina
Lecce
0
1
L
H2H at home: Fiorentina
22.05.26
H2H
Fiorentina
Atalanta
1
1
D
30.03.25
H2H
Fiorentina
Atalanta
1
0
W
03.04.24
H2H
Fiorentina
Atalanta
1
0
W
17.09.23
H2H
Fiorentina
Atalanta
3
2
W
17.04.23
H2H
Fiorentina
Atalanta
1
1
D
20.02.22
H2H
Fiorentina
Atalanta
1
0
W
11.04.21
H2H
Fiorentina
Atalanta
2
3
L
Last matches: Atalanta
10.05.26
Ser
Atalanta
AC Milan
3
2
W
27.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
Cagliari
2
3
L
18.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
AS Roma
1
1
D
06.04.26
Ser
Atalanta
Lecce
3
0
W
18.03.26
UEF
Atalanta
Bayern München
1
4
L
14.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Inter
1
1
D
04.03.26
Cop
Atalanta
Lazio
2
2
D
01.03.26
Ser
Atalanta
Sassuolo
1
2
L
17.02.26
UEF
Atalanta
Borussia Dortmund
0
2
L
14.02.26
Ser
Atalanta
Lazio
2
0
W
01.02.26
Ser
Atalanta
Como
0
0
D
28.01.26
UEF
Atalanta
Union St. Gilloise
0
1
L
16.01.26
Ser
Atalanta
Pisa
1
1
D
07.01.26
Ser
Atalanta
Bologna
2
0
W
21.12.25
Ser
Atalanta
Genoa
1
0
W
06.12.25
Ser
Atalanta
Hellas Verona
1
3
L
26.11.25
UEF
Atalanta
Eintracht Frankfurt
3
0
W
22.11.25
Ser
Atalanta
Napoli
1
3
L
05.11.25
UEF
Atalanta
Marseille
1
0
W
01.11.25
Ser
Atalanta
Udinese
0
1
L
H2H away: Atalanta
22.05.26
H2H
Fiorentina
Atalanta
1
1
D
30.03.25
H2H
Fiorentina
Atalanta
1
0
L
03.04.24
H2H
Fiorentina
Atalanta
1
0
L
17.09.23
H2H
Fiorentina
Atalanta
3
2
L
17.04.23
H2H
Fiorentina
Atalanta
1
1
D
20.02.22
H2H
Fiorentina
Atalanta
1
0
L
11.04.21
H2H
Fiorentina
Atalanta
2
3
W

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Fiorentina 3 missing
-
F. Parisi
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
L. Ranieri
Missing Fixture Red Card
OUT
-
M. Kean
Questionable Calf Injury
OUT
Atalanta 2 missing
-
O. Kossounou
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
L. Bernasconi
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT