Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
52.7%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS No |
35.4%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.3%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
89.6%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Draw / Away |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 0-1 |
-
|
- |
Fiorentina
Atalanta
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Fiorentina
52 matches
Atalanta
53 matches
| Fiorentina | Statistic | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wins | 22 |
| 14 | Draws | 16 |
| 20 | Losses | 15 |
| 66 | Goals For | 76 |
| 69 | Goals Against | 61 |
| 1.27 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.43 |
| 1.33 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.15 |
| 29 | BTTS Yes | 27 |
| 39 | Over 1.5 | 40 |
| 31 | Over 2.5 | 25 |
| 12 | Over 3.5 | 14 |
| 14 | Clean Sheets | 18 |
| 14 | Failed To Score | 12 |
| 3.94 | Shots On Goal | 4.57 |
| 13.37 | Total Shots | 14.64 |
| 4.62 | Corners | 5.26 |
| 51.1% | Ball Possession | 53.6% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Atalanta's more proactive style and Fiorentina's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atalanta. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Atalanta carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 58 points while Fiorentina sit 15 on 41, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Fiorentina expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Atalanta in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atalanta having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.
Fiorentina approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 41 points from 37 matches. The overall return of 9 wins, 14 draws, and 14 defeats with a 40:49 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Moise Kean (8 goals), R. Mandragora (7 goals), A. Gudmundsson (5 goals), with creative support from A. Gudmundsson (4 assists), H. Nicolussi Caviglia (4 assists), R. Mandragora (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 8 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with F. Parisi, M. Kean unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
So far, Atalanta have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 58 points from 37 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 15 wins, 13 draws, and 9 losses, while the 50:35 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on G. Scamacca (10 goals), N. Krstovic (10 goals), C. De Ketelaere (3 goals), with creative support from N. Krstovic (5 assists), C. De Ketelaere (5 assists), N. Zalewski (5 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with O. Kossounou, L. Bernasconi unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Fiorentina won 7 times, Atalanta won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:25 from Fiorentina's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.
Fiorentina
4
6
4
12
3
3
Lineups
Fiorentina
Juventus
Fiorentina
Genoa
Fiorentina
AS Roma
Fiorentina
Sassuolo
Fiorentina
Lecce
Fiorentina
Crystal Palace
Fiorentina
Lazio
Fiorentina
Crystal Palace
Fiorentina
Hellas Verona
Fiorentina
Inter
Fiorentina
Raków Częstochowa
Fiorentina
Cremonese
Fiorentina
Raków Częstochowa
Fiorentina
Parma
Fiorentina
Udinese
Fiorentina
Jagiellonia
Fiorentina
Pisa
Fiorentina
Jagiellonia
Fiorentina
Como
Fiorentina
Torino
Atalanta
Bologna
Atalanta
AC Milan
Atalanta
Genoa
Atalanta
Cagliari
Atalanta
Lazio
Atalanta
AS Roma
Atalanta
Juventus
Atalanta
Lecce
Atalanta
Hellas Verona
Atalanta
Bayern München
Atalanta
Inter
Atalanta
Bayern München
Atalanta
Udinese
Atalanta
Lazio
Atalanta
Sassuolo
Atalanta
Borussia Dortmund
Atalanta
Napoli
Atalanta
Borussia Dortmund
Atalanta
Lazio
Atalanta
Cremonese
Fiorentina
Genoa
Fiorentina
Sassuolo
Fiorentina
Crystal Palace
Fiorentina
Lazio
Fiorentina
Inter
Fiorentina
Raków Częstochowa
Fiorentina
Parma
Fiorentina
Jagiellonia
Fiorentina
Pisa
Fiorentina
Torino
Fiorentina
Como
Fiorentina
Cagliari
Fiorentina
AC Milan
Fiorentina
Cremonese
Fiorentina
Udinese
Fiorentina
Hellas Verona
Fiorentina
Dynamo Kyiv
Fiorentina
AEK Athens FC
Fiorentina
Juventus
Fiorentina
Lecce
Atalanta
AC Milan
Atalanta
Cagliari
Atalanta
AS Roma
Atalanta
Lecce
Atalanta
Bayern München
Atalanta
Inter
Atalanta
Lazio
Atalanta
Sassuolo
Atalanta
Borussia Dortmund
Atalanta
Lazio
Atalanta
Como
Atalanta
Union St. Gilloise
Atalanta
Pisa
Atalanta
Bologna
Atalanta
Genoa
Atalanta
Hellas Verona
Atalanta
Eintracht Frankfurt
Atalanta
Napoli
Atalanta
Marseille
Atalanta
Udinese
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38 | 27 | 6 | 5 | 89:35 | 54 | 87 |
D
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 2 | 38 | 23 | 7 | 8 | 58:36 | 22 | 76 |
W
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 3 | 38 | 23 | 4 | 11 | 59:31 | 28 | 73 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 65:29 | 36 | 71 |
W
W
W
D
W
|
|
| 5 | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 53:35 | 18 | 70 |
L
W
L
L
D
|
|
| 6 | 38 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 61:34 | 27 | 69 |
D
L
W
D
D
|
|
| 7 |
Atalanta
Away
|
38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 51:36 | 15 | 59 |
D
L
W
D
L
|
| 8 | 38 | 16 | 8 | 14 | 49:46 | 3 | 56 |
D
W
W
D
L
|
|
| 9 | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 41:40 | 1 | 54 |
W
L
L
W
D
|
|
| 10 | 38 | 14 | 8 | 16 | 45:48 | -3 | 50 |
L
L
W
W
D
|
|
| 11 | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 46:50 | -4 | 49 |
L
L
L
W
D
|
|
| 12 | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 44:63 | -19 | 45 |
D
L
W
L
D
|
|
| 13 | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 28:46 | -18 | 45 |
W
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 14 | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 40:53 | -13 | 43 |
W
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 15 |
Fiorentina
Home
|
38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 41:50 | -9 | 42 |
D
W
D
L
D
|
| 16 | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 41:51 | -10 | 41 |
L
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 17 | 38 | 10 | 8 | 20 | 28:50 | -22 | 38 |
W
W
L
W
D
|
|
| 18 | 38 | 8 | 10 | 20 | 32:57 | -25 | 34 |
L
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 19 | 38 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 25:61 | -36 | 21 |
L
D
L
D
D
|
|
| 20 | 38 | 2 | 12 | 24 | 26:71 | -45 | 18 |
L
L
L
L
L
|