BRAZIL SERIE D
12.07.2026 20:00
Estadio Presidente Vargas
Ferroviario
Match Timeline
Imperatriz
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
45+7'
Pedrinho
Ferroviario
🟥
71'
Imperatriz
Imperatriz
81'
Lucas Black
Ferroviario
90+1'
Raphael Freitas
Ferroviario

Ferroviario vs Imperatriz Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 73.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 19.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
73.5%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
19.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ferroviario Win 73.5%
Draw 4.3%
Imperatriz Win 22.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ferroviario1.24
Imperatriz1.06
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ferroviario Ferroviario
WWDLW
19 GF / 9 GA
Imperatriz Imperatriz
WLDWL
17 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
1.31
0.69
Average Goals Conceded
0.92
7
BTTS Yes
6
3
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ferroviario Ferroviario 13 matches
Imperatriz Imperatriz 13 matches
Ferroviario Statistic Imperatriz
7 Wins 4
5 Draws 6
1 Losses 3
19 Goals For 17
9 Goals Against 12
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 1.31
0.69 Avg Goals Conceded 0.92
7 BTTS Yes 6
10 Over 1.5 10
3 Over 2.5 5
2 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The first leg ended level at 1-1, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Imperatriz having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Ferroviario arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 21 points compared to Imperatriz in 3 on 15, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Imperatriz.

Ferroviario Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Ferroviario arrive from a league campaign that has them 1 with 21 points after 10 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats with goals at 15:7 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Imperatriz Analysis

Imperatriz enter this tie with a season profile built on 15 points from 10 matches, placing them 3 in their league. With 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses plus a goal ratio of 15:10, they bring good form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on their main attacking players, while defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Ferroviario won 4 times, Imperatriz won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:3 from Ferroviario's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.7%)
H2H summary: Ferroviario wins 4, draws 2, Imperatriz wins 0

Standings

Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)