BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Presidente Vargas

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 73.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 19.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
73.5%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
19.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ferroviario Win 73.5%
Draw 4.3%
Imperatriz Win 22.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ferroviario1.24
Imperatriz1.06
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ferroviario Ferroviario
WWDLW
19 GF / 9 GA
Imperatriz Imperatriz
WLDWL
17 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
1.31
0.69
Average Goals Conceded
0.92
7
BTTS Yes
6
3
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ferroviario Ferroviario 13 matches
Imperatriz Imperatriz 13 matches
Ferroviario Statistic Imperatriz
7 Wins 4
5 Draws 6
1 Losses 3
19 Goals For 17
9 Goals Against 12
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 1.31
0.69 Avg Goals Conceded 0.92
7 BTTS Yes 6
10 Over 1.5 10
3 Over 2.5 5
2 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The first leg ended level at 1-1, so the tie remains finely balanced going into this match. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Imperatriz having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Ferroviario arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 21 points compared to Imperatriz in 3 on 15, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Imperatriz.

Ferroviario Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Ferroviario arrive from a league campaign that has them 1 with 21 points after 10 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats with goals at 15:7 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Imperatriz Analysis

Imperatriz enter this tie with a season profile built on 15 points from 10 matches, placing them 3 in their league. With 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses plus a goal ratio of 15:10, they bring good form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on their main attacking players, while defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Ferroviario won 3 times, Imperatriz won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:2 from Ferroviario's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.7%)
H2H summary: Ferroviario wins 3, draws 1, Imperatriz wins 0
Last matches: Ferroviario
04.07.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Imperatriz
1
1
D
28.06.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Central SC
2
0
W
21.06.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Central SC
1
1
D
13.06.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Fluminense PI
1
0
W
01.06.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Tirol/CEFAT
0
0
D
23.05.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Altos
3
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Uniclinic Atletico Clube
2
0
W
11.05.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Piauí
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Piauí
2
1
W
26.04.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Uniclinic Atletico Clube
2
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Altos
0
1
L
11.04.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Tirol/CEFAT
3
2
W
04.04.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Fluminense PI
1
1
D
09.08.25
Ser
Ferroviario
ASA
0
2
L
02.08.25
Ser
Ferroviario
ASA
0
1
L
27.07.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Central SC
0
0
D
19.07.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Santa Cruz RN
2
1
W
13.07.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Horizonte
0
2
L
05.07.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Sousa
0
0
D
28.06.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Treze
1
1
D
Last matches: Imperatriz
04.07.26
Ser
Imperatriz
Ferroviario
1
1
D
27.06.26
Ser
Imperatriz
Maracanã
0
0
D
20.06.26
Ser
Imperatriz
Maracanã
1
1
D
06.06.26
Ser
Imperatriz
Tuna Luso
4
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Imperatriz
Oratório
1
0
W
23.05.26
Ser
Imperatriz
Águia de Marabá
0
3
L
16.05.26
Ser
Imperatriz
Tocantinópolis
0
2
L
10.05.26
Ser
Imperatriz
Trem
4
0
W
04.05.26
Ser
Imperatriz
Trem
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Imperatriz
Tocantinópolis
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Imperatriz
Águia de Marabá
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Imperatriz
Oratório
3
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Imperatriz
Tuna Luso
0
0
D
24.08.25
Ser
Imperatriz
America-RN
0
0
D
17.08.25
Ser
Imperatriz
America-RN
0
1
L
09.08.25
Ser
Imperatriz
Manaus FC
0
2
L
03.08.25
Ser
Imperatriz
Manaus FC
2
0
W
26.07.25
Ser
Imperatriz
Parnahyba
3
2
W
19.07.25
Ser
Imperatriz
Iguatu
0
1
L
12.07.25
Ser
Imperatriz
Maranhão
1
0
W
H2H: Ferroviario vs Imperatriz
28.11.20
H2H
Ferroviario
Imperatriz
7
0
W
26.09.20
H2H
Imperatriz
Ferroviario
1
2
W
17.08.19
H2H
Imperatriz
Ferroviario
0
0
D
15.06.19
H2H
Ferroviario
Imperatriz
2
1
W
Last matches: Ferroviario
28.06.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Central SC
2
0
W
13.06.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Fluminense PI
1
0
W
23.05.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Altos
3
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Uniclinic Atletico Clube
2
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Piauí
2
1
W
11.04.26
Ser
Ferroviario
Tirol/CEFAT
3
2
W
02.08.25
Ser
Ferroviario
ASA
0
1
L
27.07.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Central SC
0
0
D
05.07.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Sousa
0
0
D
28.06.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Treze
1
1
D
08.06.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Santa Cruz
3
1
W
25.05.25
Ser
Ferroviario
America-RN
1
0
W
04.05.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Horizonte
1
0
W
26.04.25
Ser
Ferroviario
Santa Cruz RN
3
1
W
H2H at home: Ferroviario
28.11.20
H2H
Ferroviario
Imperatriz
7
0
W
15.06.19
H2H
Ferroviario
Imperatriz
2
1
W
Last matches: Imperatriz
27.06.26
Ser
Imperatriz
Maracanã
0
0
D
31.05.26
Ser
Imperatriz
Oratório
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Imperatriz
Tocantinópolis
0
2
L
04.05.26
Ser
Imperatriz
Trem
1
2
L
19.04.26
Ser
Imperatriz
Águia de Marabá
1
1
D
05.04.26
Ser
Imperatriz
Tuna Luso
0
0
D
24.08.25
Ser
Imperatriz
America-RN
0
0
D
03.08.25
Ser
Imperatriz
Manaus FC
2
0
W
19.07.25
Ser
Imperatriz
Iguatu
0
1
L
05.07.25
Ser
Imperatriz
Sampaio Correa
0
3
L
08.06.25
Ser
Imperatriz
Maracanã
3
2
W
24.05.25
Ser
Imperatriz
Altos
1
1
D
21.05.25
Ser
Imperatriz
Tocantinópolis
2
1
W
03.05.25
Ser
Imperatriz
Maranhão
0
3
L
20.04.25
Ser
Imperatriz
Parnahyba
0
0
D
H2H away: Imperatriz
28.11.20
H2H
Ferroviario
Imperatriz
7
0
L
15.06.19
H2H
Ferroviario
Imperatriz
2
1
L

Standings

Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)