PORTUGAL › PRIMEIRA LIGA
16.05.2026 14:30
Estádio Do Dragão
Referee: J. Goncalves
FC Porto
Match Timeline
Santa Clara
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
9'
J. Tavares ↔ Andrey
Santa Clara
🔄
56'
D. Gul ↔ G. Veiga
FC Porto
🔄
56'
B. Sainz ↔ O. Pietuszewski
FC Porto
🔄
62'
Fernando ↔ Elias Manoel
Santa Clara
🔄
63'
Welinton Torrao ↔ Vinicius Lopes
Santa Clara
⚽
69'
S. Lima
FC Porto
🔄
72'
D. Costa ↔ J. Costa
FC Porto
🔄
81'
F. Moura ↔ N. Perez
FC Porto
🔄
82'
V. Froholdt ↔ B. Lima
FC Porto
🔄
86'
Paulo Victor ↔ Lucas Soares
Santa Clara
🔄
86'
Gustavo Klismahn ↔ Isaac
Santa Clara

FC Porto vs Santa Clara Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
26.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
FC Porto Win 74.1%
Draw 3.2%
Santa Clara Win 22.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Porto1.56
Santa Clara0.85
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Porto FC Porto
WWDLW
83 GF / 28 GA
Santa Clara Santa Clara
WLDWL
39 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
1.84
Average Goals Scored
1
0.62
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
20
BTTS Yes
16
24
Over 2.5
15
5.18
Shots on Goal
2.92

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Porto FC Porto 45 matches
Santa Clara Santa Clara 39 matches
FC Porto Statistic Santa Clara
34 Wins 11
7 Draws 11
4 Losses 17
83 Goals For 39
28 Goals Against 44
1.84 Avg Goals Scored 1
0.62 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
20 BTTS Yes 16
34 Over 1.5 23
24 Over 2.5 15
9 Over 3.5 5
23 Clean Sheets 14
3 Failed To Score 14
5.18 Shots On Goal 2.92
14.38 Total Shots 9.92
5.44 Corners 4.18
54.3% Ball Possession 42.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by FC Porto's more proactive style and Santa Clara's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Santa Clara. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. FC Porto come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. FC Porto arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 85 points compared to Santa Clara in 12 on 36, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Porto expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Santa Clara in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Santa Clara having the stronger overall control.

FC Porto Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 85 points from 33 games, FC Porto bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 27 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 65:18, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through Samu (13 goals), William Gomes (8 goals), V. Froholdt (6 goals), with creative support from G. Veiga (8 assists), A. Costa (8 assists), V. Froholdt (6 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 13 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Santa Clara Analysis

Santa Clara are currently 12 in the standings with 36 points from 33 matches. Their overall return of 9 wins, 9 draws, and 15 losses with goals at 32:40 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Gabriel Silva (6 goals), Vinícius Lopes (6 goals), Serginho (4 goals), with creative support from Serginho (3 assists), Fernando (2 assists), Wendell (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, FC Porto won 12 times, Santa Clara won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:8 from FC Porto's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.8%)
Predicted formations: FC Porto 4-3-3 / Santa Clara 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: FC Porto wins 12, draws 2, Santa Clara wins 1

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 4 2 66:18 48 88
W L W W W
2 34 25 7 2 89:24 65 82
W W W D D
3 34 23 11 0 74:25 49 80
W D D W W
4 34 16 11 7 64:36 28 59
D D D L W
5 34 15 11 8 42:29 13 56
W D D W D
6 34 13 11 10 47:38 9 50
L L D W L
7 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
D L W L W
8 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
W W D L W
9 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
L L L W W
10 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
L D D L L
11 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
L D L W L
12 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
D L D L D
13 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
L W D W D
14 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
W L L W W
15 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
D D L L L
16 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
D W L L L
17 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
L W W D L
18 34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21
D W W D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2