GERMANY › 3. LIGA
16.05.2026 11:30
Audi Sportpark
Referee: C. Ballweg
FC Ingolstadt 04
Match Timeline
Waldhof Mannheim
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
2'
Y. Sturm · Assist: F. Carlsen
FC Ingolstadt 04
⚽
30'
M. Costly · Assist: E. Gul
FC Ingolstadt 04
🔄
46'
N. Hoffmann ↔ O. Ogbemudia
Waldhof Mannheim
🔄
46'
N. X. Muteba NTumba ↔ L. Bierschenk
Waldhof Mannheim
🔄
46'
J. Sietan ↔ A. Ferati
Waldhof Mannheim
⚽
51'
E. Gul · Assist: F. Carlsen
FC Ingolstadt 04
⚽
57'
T. Boyd · Assist: A. Ferati
Waldhof Mannheim
⚽
65'
Y. Sturm · Assist: F. Carlsen
FC Ingolstadt 04
🔄
66'
D. Mendes ↔ Masca
Waldhof Mannheim
🔄
70'
M. Costly ↔ J. Kugel
FC Ingolstadt 04
🔄
70'
M. Besuschkow ↔ L. Frode
FC Ingolstadt 04
🟨
76'
Terrence Boyd
Waldhof Mannheim
🔄
78'
V. Thill ↔ J. Rieckmann
Waldhof Mannheim
🟥
80'
Lukas Fröde
FC Ingolstadt 04
⚽
81'
Y. Sturm · Assist: F. Carlsen
FC Ingolstadt 04
🔄
86'
S. Lorenz ↔ J. Maljojoki
FC Ingolstadt 04
🔄
89'
E. Gul ↔ B. Ozturk
FC Ingolstadt 04
🔄
89'
Y. Sturm ↔ E. Kehrer
FC Ingolstadt 04

FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Waldhof Mannheim Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw or Away
Probability 91.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw or Away
91.8%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
FC Ingolstadt 04 Win 8.2%
Draw 47.1%
Waldhof Mannheim Win 44.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
FC Ingolstadt 041.7
Waldhof Mannheim1.54
Recent Form (Last 5)
FC Ingolstadt 04 FC Ingolstadt 04
WWDLW
60 GF / 55 GA
Waldhof Mannheim Waldhof Mannheim
WLDWL
58 GF / 67 GA
Key Stats
1.62
Average Goals Scored
1.57
1.49
Average Goals Conceded
1.81
27
BTTS Yes
25
26
Over 2.5
25
4.23
Shots on Goal
3.52

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FC Ingolstadt 04 FC Ingolstadt 04 37 matches
Waldhof Mannheim Waldhof Mannheim 37 matches
FC Ingolstadt 04 Statistic Waldhof Mannheim
12 Wins 15
10 Draws 7
15 Losses 15
60 Goals For 58
55 Goals Against 67
1.62 Avg Goals Scored 1.57
1.49 Avg Goals Conceded 1.81
27 BTTS Yes 25
30 Over 1.5 32
26 Over 2.5 25
12 Over 3.5 17
7 Clean Sheets 4
6 Failed To Score 8
4.23 Shots On Goal 3.52
11.45 Total Shots 10.23
3.74 Corners 4.06
41.6% Ball Possession 37.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights FC Ingolstadt 04's more proactive style and Waldhof Mannheim's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. FC Ingolstadt 04 have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with FC Ingolstadt 04 expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Waldhof Mannheim in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Waldhof Mannheim having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Waldhof Mannheim.

FC Ingolstadt 04 Analysis

FC Ingolstadt 04 approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 13 with 46 points from 37 matches. The overall return of 12 wins, 10 draws, and 15 defeats with a 60:55 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Costly (17 goals), Dennis Kaygın (7 goals), Y. Sturm (6 goals), with creative support from M. Costly (9 assists), F. Carlsen (7 assists), M. Besuschkow (6 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Waldhof Mannheim Analysis

Waldhof Mannheim are currently 9 in the standings with 52 points from 37 matches. Their overall return of 15 wins, 7 draws, and 15 losses with goals at 58:67 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by F. Lohkemper (16 goals), T. Boyd (11 goals), K. Okpala (7 goals), with creative support from A. Ferati (8 assists), Niklas Hoffmann (4 assists), J. Rieckmann (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, FC Ingolstadt 04 won 5 times, Waldhof Mannheim won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:13 from FC Ingolstadt 04's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.58 goals per game.

1X2: Draw or Away
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (91.8%)
Predicted formations: FC Ingolstadt 04 3-4-3 / Waldhof Mannheim 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: FC Ingolstadt 04 wins 5, draws 5, Waldhof Mannheim wins 2

Standings

3. Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 24 8 6 66:34 32 80
W D W W W
2 38 21 9 8 72:51 21 72
W W L W W
3 38 20 10 8 78:66 12 70
W W L L L
4 38 19 11 8 66:49 17 68
D D W L W
5 38 18 13 7 74:49 25 67
W W D L D
6 38 18 10 10 82:48 34 64
W L W L W
7 38 19 7 12 76:57 19 64
W W D W W
8 38 15 11 12 54:53 1 56
L L D W D
9 38 15 8 15 54:52 2 53
W L L D D
10 38 15 7 16 59:72 -13 52
L W L D D
11 38 15 6 17 51:53 -2 51
D L W L L
12 38 13 10 15 65:56 9 49
W W L W L
13 38 14 7 17 54:58 -4 49
L L W W L
14 38 13 7 18 57:69 -12 46
L L W L D
15 38 10 14 14 51:57 -6 44
L L W W D
16 38 12 7 19 65:71 -6 43
L W L L L
17 38 9 8 21 57:89 -32 35
L W L W L
18 38 7 13 18 51:70 -19 34
W D W D D
19 38 9 6 23 49:78 -29 33
L D L L W
20 38 5 6 27 38:87 -49 21
L L D D D
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga (Promotion)
Relegation