PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 78.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
78.5%
-
BTTS Yes
78.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
71.9%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
FBC Melgar Win 78.5%
Draw 3.8%
FC Cajamarca Win 17.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
FBC Melgar1.65
FC Cajamarca1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar
WWDLW
41 GF / 27 GA
FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca
WLDWL
28 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.64
Average Goals Scored
1.33
1.08
Average Goals Conceded
1.67
17
BTTS Yes
14
14
Over 2.5
12
4.5
Shots on Goal
3.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

FBC Melgar FBC Melgar 25 matches
FC Cajamarca FC Cajamarca 21 matches
FBC Melgar Statistic FC Cajamarca
12 Wins 5
7 Draws 6
6 Losses 10
41 Goals For 28
27 Goals Against 35
1.64 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
1.08 Avg Goals Conceded 1.67
17 BTTS Yes 14
21 Over 1.5 17
14 Over 2.5 12
9 Over 3.5 7
7 Clean Sheets 0
4 Failed To Score 7
4.5 Shots On Goal 3.2
14.5 Total Shots 9.05
4.85 Corners 2.55
54.7% Ball Possession 43.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by FBC Melgar's more proactive style and FC Cajamarca's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. FBC Melgar arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 28 points compared to FC Cajamarca in 15 on 17, which underlines the gap in season consistency. FBC Melgar come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors FC Cajamarca.

FBC Melgar Analysis

FBC Melgar come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 28 points after 17 matches. With 8 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats plus a goal balance of 29:20, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by Jhonny Vidales (6 goals), Bernardo Cuesta (5 goals), Nicolás Quagliata (4 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Quagliata (7 assists), Matías Zegarra (3 assists), Bernardo Cuesta (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

FC Cajamarca Analysis

With 17 points from 17 games and a place of 15, FC Cajamarca still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 5 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 23:28 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Brandon Palacios (4 goals), Hernán Barcos (2 goals), Mauricio Arrasco (2 goals), with creative support from Sebastián Enciso (3 assists), Hernán Barcos (2 assists), Ricardo Lagos (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, FBC Melgar won 0 times, FC Cajamarca won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:3 from FBC Melgar's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.2%)
Predicted formations: FBC Melgar 4-2-3-1 / FC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: FBC Melgar wins 0, draws 0, FC Cajamarca wins 1
Last matches: FBC Melgar
02.08.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
UCV Moquegua
0
0
D
26.07.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
2
1
W
18.07.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Cienciano
3
1
W
18.06.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
17.06.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
31.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Alianza Atletico
3
1
W
22.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Juan Pablo II College
1
1
D
16.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sport Huancayo
4
1
W
10.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Comerciantes Unidos
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
2
0
W
28.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Universitario
2
1
W
15.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sport Boys
3
1
W
04.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Cusco
1
3
L
20.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
ADT
1
1
D
15.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Atletico Grau
0
0
D
10.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Alianza Lima
1
3
L
27.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
2
L
21.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
FC Cajamarca
1
3
L
15.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
UCV Moquegua
4
0
W
Last matches: FC Cajamarca
01.08.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Sport Huancayo
0
2
L
27.07.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
2
L
17.07.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Juan Pablo II College
2
2
D
31.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Alianza Lima
1
1
D
24.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Alianza Atletico
1
1
D
15.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Sporting Cristal
3
1
W
08.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
2
1
W
02.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Sport Boys
3
2
W
25.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
UCV Moquegua
1
2
L
22.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Cusco
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
ADT
2
2
D
06.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
1
L
21.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Cienciano
0
3
L
13.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Comerciantes Unidos
3
4
L
06.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Atletico Grau
0
1
L
01.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Universitario
0
1
L
21.02.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
3
1
W
15.02.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Sport Huancayo
0
2
L
09.02.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
1
D
31.01.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Juan Pablo II College
3
3
D
H2H: FBC Melgar vs FC Cajamarca
21.02.26
H2H
FC Cajamarca
FBC Melgar
3
1
L
Last matches: FBC Melgar
26.07.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sporting Cristal
2
1
W
31.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Alianza Atletico
3
1
W
16.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Sport Huancayo
4
1
W
03.05.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
UTC Cajamarca
2
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Universitario
2
1
W
04.04.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Cusco
1
3
L
15.03.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Atletico Grau
0
0
D
27.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
2
L
15.02.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
UCV Moquegua
4
0
W
31.01.26
Pri
FBC Melgar
Cienciano
2
0
W
25.01.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
Macara
2
1
W
17.01.26
Fri
FBC Melgar
UCV Moquegua
2
0
W
Last matches: FC Cajamarca
27.07.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
2
L
24.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Alianza Atletico
1
1
D
08.05.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
2
1
W
25.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
UCV Moquegua
1
2
L
22.04.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Cusco
0
1
L
21.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Cienciano
0
3
L
06.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Atletico Grau
0
1
L
01.03.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Universitario
0
1
L
15.02.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Sport Huancayo
0
2
L
31.01.26
Pri
FC Cajamarca
Juan Pablo II College
3
3
D

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 12 4 1 30:8 22 40
W D W D W
2 17 10 4 3 25:21 4 34
W L W D L
3 17 10 3 4 34:22 12 33
L L W D L
4 17 8 5 4 24:15 9 29
W W W D L
5 17 8 4 5 29:20 9 28
D W W W D
6 17 8 3 6 21:24 -3 27
W L W W W
7 17 7 5 5 21:18 3 26
W W L W D
8 17 5 6 6 20:18 2 21
L W L L D
9 17 5 6 6 18:20 -2 21
L D D L D
10 17 5 5 7 22:21 1 20
L L L L L
11 17 5 5 7 15:19 -4 20
W W L W D
12 17 5 4 8 28:30 -2 19
W L W L W
13 17 4 6 7 21:26 -5 18
L D L D D
14 17 5 3 9 17:24 -7 18
D D D L D
15 17 4 5 8 23:28 -5 17
L L D D D
16 17 4 4 9 12:18 -6 16
L L W W L
17 17 4 4 9 21:31 -10 16
W W L L D
18 17 4 4 9 22:40 -18 16
L W D L D
Play-offs