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16.10.2026 16:30
Holstein-Stadion
Referee: J. Wienefeld
Holstein Kiel
Match Timeline
Hertha BSC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
34'
Deyovaisio Zeefuik
Hertha BSC
🟨
38'
Sebastian Schonlau
Holstein Kiel
🔄
50'
S. Schonlau ↔ D. Zec
Holstein Kiel
🔄
64'
T. Wiese ↔ I. Ugoh
Holstein Kiel
🔄
64'
G. Balzi ↔ G. de Regt
Holstein Kiel
🟨
68'
David Zec
Holstein Kiel
🔄
69'
J. Eitschberger ↔ M. Pedersen
Hertha BSC
🔄
69'
S. Gronning ↔ L. Schuler
Hertha BSC
🔄
76'
J. Thorsteinsson ↔ F. Alfa-Ruprecht
Hertha BSC
🔄
81'
J. Therkelsen ↔ G. Kvilitaia
Holstein Kiel
🔄
82'
A. Kapralik ↔ M. Richter Monserrat
Holstein Kiel
🔄
89'
O. Adewumi ↔ S. Gouram
Hertha BSC
🟨
90'
Paul Seguin
Hertha BSC

Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 62.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
62.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Holstein Kiel Win 34.5%
Draw 3.2%
Hertha BSC Win 62.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Holstein Kiel1.36
Hertha BSC2.87
Recent Form (Last 5)
Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel
L W D L D
6 GF / 6 GA
Hertha BSC Hertha BSC
W D W W W
12 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
1.44
Average Goals Scored
3.69
1.63
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
11
BTTS Yes
13
10
Over 2.5
14
3.43
Shots on Goal
6.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 16 matches
Hertha BSC Hertha BSC 16 matches
Holstein Kiel Statistic Hertha BSC
4 Wins 12
6 Draws 3
6 Losses 1
23 Goals For 59
26 Goals Against 20
1.44 Avg Goals Scored 3.69
1.63 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
11 BTTS Yes 13
14 Over 1.5 15
10 Over 2.5 14
8 Over 3.5 11
1 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 0
3.43 Shots On Goal 6.86
14.29 Total Shots 19.14
6.14 Corners 5.57
56.3% Ball Possession 47.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Hertha BSC's more proactive style and Holstein Kiel's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Hertha BSC. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Hertha BSC look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Hertha BSC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 18 points while Holstein Kiel sit 16 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Holstein Kiel expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Hertha BSC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Hertha BSC having the stronger overall control.

Holstein Kiel Analysis

With 4 points from 6 games and a place of 16, Holstein Kiel still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats with a 7:10 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on P. Harres (4 goals), A. Bernhardsson (2 goals), A. Kaprálik (1 goals), with creative support from A. Bernhardsson (3 assists), P. Harres (2 assists), A. Kaprálik (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 0 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Hertha BSC Analysis

Hertha BSC come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 18 points after 6 matches. They have recorded 6 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a 17:7 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on J. Brekalo (4 goals), J. Þorsteinsson (3 goals), O. Adewumi (3 goals), with creative support from J. Brekalo (3 assists), Marten Winkler (2 assists), M. Pedersen (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Holstein Kiel won 1 times, Hertha BSC won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:6 from Holstein Kiel's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.75 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.8%)
Predicted formations: Holstein Kiel 4-1-4-1 / Hertha BSC 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Holstein Kiel wins 1, draws 1, Hertha BSC wins 2

Standings

2. Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 10 1 0 25:9 16 31
W W W D W
2 11 7 3 1 26:13 13 24
W W L D D
3 11 6 3 2 10:7 3 21
W L W W D
4 11 6 2 3 25:14 11 20
W D W L W
5 11 5 4 2 26:16 10 19
L W D W D
6 11 5 2 4 18:16 2 17
W W L W W
7 11 4 4 3 19:20 -1 16
D L D L D
8 11 4 2 5 11:13 -2 14
W W D L L
9 11 2 6 3 13:16 -3 12
L L D D W
10 11 3 3 5 13:19 -6 12
L W L W L
11 11 3 3 5 12:18 -6 12
D W L D L
12 11 2 5 4 18:20 -2 11
D L D D L
13 11 3 2 6 16:18 -2 11
D L W L W
14 11 3 2 6 14:18 -4 11
L L W L D
15 11 3 2 6 15:20 -5 11
W L L W D
16 11 3 2 6 15:24 -9 11
L W L W L
17 11 2 3 6 9:21 -12 9
L D D L W
18 11 1 5 5 11:14 -3 8
L L W D L
Promotion
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