PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Municipal de Famalicao
Referee: C. Pereira
Famalicao
Match Timeline
Alverca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
20'
Nabil Touaizi
Alverca
🟨
38'
Tom Van De Looi
Famalicao
🔄
65'
S. Elisor ↔ U. Abubakar
Famalicao
🔄
81'
T. Van de Looi ↔ P. Santos
Famalicao
🔄
81'
Gil Dias ↔ R. Beney
Famalicao
🔄
81'
Rhaldney ↔ D. Gui
Alverca
83'
U. Abubakar · Assist: Rafa Soares
Famalicao
🟨
86'
Chiquinho
Alverca
🔄
87'
G. Sa ↔ A. Joujou
Famalicao
🔄
87'
Sorriso ↔ M. Pena
Famalicao
🔄
88'
Lincoln ↔ F. Garcia
Alverca
🔄
88'
Sandro Lima ↔ Felipe Lima
Alverca
🔄
88'
Figueiredo ↔ V. Moreira
Alverca
🔄
90+1'
N. Touaizi ↔ Kauan
Alverca

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 75.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
75.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
17.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Famalicao Win 75.7%
Draw 0%
Alverca Win 24.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Famalicao1.36
Alverca0.99
Recent Form (Last 5)
Famalicao Famalicao
WWDLW
41 GF / 29 GA
Alverca Alverca
WLDWL
35 GF / 51 GA
Key Stats
1.24
Average Goals Scored
1.06
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
12
BTTS Yes
19
13
Over 2.5
17
4.39
Shots on Goal
3.61

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Famalicao Famalicao 33 matches
Alverca Alverca 33 matches
Famalicao Statistic Alverca
14 Wins 10
11 Draws 9
8 Losses 14
41 Goals For 35
29 Goals Against 51
1.24 Avg Goals Scored 1.06
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
12 BTTS Yes 19
18 Over 1.5 26
13 Over 2.5 17
8 Over 3.5 8
16 Clean Sheets 6
9 Failed To Score 9
4.39 Shots On Goal 3.61
12.45 Total Shots 9.73
5.45 Corners 4.36
51.4% Ball Possession 44.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Famalicao's more proactive style and Alverca's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Alverca. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Famalicao expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Alverca in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Alverca having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Famalicao Analysis

Famalicao arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 53 points after 33 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 14 wins, 11 draws, and 8 losses, while the 41:29 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. De Haas (5 goals), Sorriso (5 goals), G. Sa (4 goals), with creative support from Gil Dias (7 assists), Sorriso (4 assists), Pedro Santos (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Alverca Analysis

Alverca are currently 11 in the standings with 39 points from 33 matches. Their overall return of 10 wins, 9 draws, and 14 losses with goals at 35:51 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Marezi (9 goals), Figueiredo (6 goals), Sandro Lima (5 goals), with creative support from Lincoln (5 assists), Nabil Touaizi (5 assists), Chiquinho (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Famalicao won 2 times, Alverca won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:2 from Famalicao's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Famalicao 4-3-3 / Alverca 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Famalicao wins 2, draws 0, Alverca wins 1

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 4 2 66:18 48 88
W L W W W
2 34 25 7 2 89:24 65 82
W W W D D
3 34 23 11 0 74:25 49 80
W D D W W
4 34 16 11 7 64:36 28 59
D D D L W
5 34 15 11 8 42:29 13 56
W D D W D
6 34 13 11 10 47:38 9 50
L L D W L
7 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
D L W L W
8 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
W W D L W
9 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
L L L W W
10 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
L D D L L
11 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
L D L W L
12 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
D L D L D
13 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
L W D W D
14 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
W L L W W
15 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
D D L L L
16 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
D W L L L
17 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
L W W D L
18 34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21
D W W D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2