UGANDA PREMIER LEAGUE
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Hamz Stadium

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 58.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 66.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60%
-
BTTS BTTS No
58.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
66.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Express Win 60%
Draw 5.7%
Lugazi Win 34.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Express1.1
Lugazi0.82
Recent Form (Last 5)
Express Express
WWDLW
28 GF / 29 GA
Lugazi Lugazi
WLDWL
19 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
0.68
1.04
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
9
BTTS Yes
9
11
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Express Express 28 matches
Lugazi Lugazi 28 matches
Express Statistic Lugazi
9 Wins 5
9 Draws 9
10 Losses 14
28 Goals For 19
29 Goals Against 35
1 Avg Goals Scored 0.68
1.04 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
9 BTTS Yes 9
16 Over 1.5 16
11 Over 2.5 11
7 Over 3.5 3
11 Clean Sheets 9
15 Failed To Score 17
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Lugazi. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Lugazi arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Lugazi having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Express Analysis

So far, Express have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 36 points from 28 matches. Their overall return of 9 wins, 9 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 28:29 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by M. K. Ssenoga (8 goals), R. Basangwa (6 goals), K. Kimera (5 goals), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Lugazi Analysis

With 24 points from 28 games and a place of 13, Lugazi still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 9 draws, and 14 defeats, and the 19:35 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on F. Mungudit (5 goals), A. Kalanzi (3 goals), A. Mulindi (2 goals), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Express won 0 times, Lugazi won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:2 from Express's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 0.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.3%)
H2H summary: Express wins 0, draws 2, Lugazi wins 2

Lineups

No lineup data available
Last matches: Express
23.05.26
Pre
Express
Vipers
0
2
L
12.05.26
Pre
Express
Kitara
3
2
W
08.05.26
Pre
Express
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
28.04.26
Pre
Express
Mbarara City
1
2
L
24.04.26
Pre
Express
BUL
0
2
L
21.04.26
Pre
Express
NEC
0
0
D
15.04.26
Pre
Express
UPDF
1
0
W
08.04.26
Pre
Express
Police
3
1
W
14.03.26
Pre
Express
URA
3
1
W
11.03.26
Pre
Express
KCCA
0
3
L
07.03.26
Pre
Express
SC Villa
0
0
D
04.03.26
Pre
Express
Maroons
1
1
D
18.02.26
Pre
Express
Calvary
0
0
D
14.02.26
Pre
Express
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
31.01.26
Pre
Express
NEC
0
0
D
28.01.26
Pre
Express
Kitara
0
1
L
24.01.26
Pre
Express
Buhimba Saints
3
1
W
08.01.26
Pre
Express
SC Villa
0
1
L
17.12.25
Pre
Express
Maroons
0
4
L
11.12.25
Pre
Express
Entebbe UPPC
0
2
L
Last matches: Lugazi
23.05.26
Pre
Lugazi
Maroons
0
1
L
12.05.26
Pre
Lugazi
BUL
0
0
D
06.05.26
Pre
Lugazi
Mbarara City
0
1
L
29.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
25.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Kitara
1
2
L
22.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
SC Villa
0
1
L
15.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Calvary
0
0
D
10.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Entebbe UPPC
1
1
D
14.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
KCCA
0
3
L
11.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
URA
0
1
L
06.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
NEC
0
2
L
03.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
Vipers
0
3
L
18.02.26
Pre
Lugazi
UPDF
1
0
W
12.02.26
Pre
Lugazi
Police
1
2
L
31.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
SC Villa
0
0
D
27.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
BUL
2
1
W
24.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
Mbarara City
0
0
D
07.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
NEC
0
1
L
17.12.25
Pre
Lugazi
Vipers
1
2
L
10.12.25
Pre
Lugazi
Police
1
1
D
H2H: Express vs Lugazi
19.05.26
H2H
Express
Lugazi
0
0
D
20.11.25
H2H
Lugazi
Express
0
0
D
06.03.25
H2H
Lugazi
Express
1
0
L
22.10.24
H2H
Express
Lugazi
0
1
L
Last matches: Express
12.05.26
Pre
Express
Kitara
3
2
W
24.04.26
Pre
Express
BUL
0
2
L
21.04.26
Pre
Express
NEC
0
0
D
08.04.26
Pre
Express
Police
3
1
W
14.03.26
Pre
Express
URA
3
1
W
04.03.26
Pre
Express
Maroons
1
1
D
14.02.26
Pre
Express
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
24.01.26
Pre
Express
Buhimba Saints
3
1
W
08.01.26
Pre
Express
SC Villa
0
1
L
04.12.25
Pre
Express
Calvary
4
0
W
26.11.25
Pre
Express
Vipers
0
3
L
05.11.25
Pre
Express
Mbarara City
4
1
W
23.10.25
Pre
Express
KCCA
0
1
L
26.09.25
Pre
Express
UPDF
1
0
W
H2H at home: Express
19.05.26
H2H
Express
Lugazi
0
0
D
22.10.24
H2H
Express
Lugazi
0
1
L
Last matches: Lugazi
12.05.26
Pre
Lugazi
BUL
0
0
D
29.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
15.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Calvary
0
0
D
11.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
URA
0
1
L
03.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
Vipers
0
3
L
12.02.26
Pre
Lugazi
Police
1
2
L
31.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
SC Villa
0
0
D
24.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
Mbarara City
0
0
D
07.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
NEC
0
1
L
05.12.25
Pre
Lugazi
UPDF
0
2
L
25.11.25
Pre
Lugazi
Maroons
0
3
L
30.10.25
Pre
Lugazi
Kitara
0
4
L
16.10.25
Pre
Lugazi
KCCA
0
0
D
01.10.25
Pre
Lugazi
Entebbe UPPC
1
2
L
H2H away: Lugazi
19.05.26
H2H
Express
Lugazi
0
0
D
22.10.24
H2H
Express
Lugazi
0
1
W

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 10 1 55:17 38 67
W W D D D
2 30 19 5 6 46:22 24 62
W D W W D
3 30 18 7 5 47:17 30 61
W W W D L
4 30 16 8 6 43:22 21 56
D D L L W
5 30 14 9 7 30:20 10 51
W D D W W
6 30 13 12 5 31:22 9 51
L L W W W
7 30 13 8 9 42:35 7 47
D D D L W
8 30 9 11 10 26:27 -1 38
W L D L D
9 30 9 10 11 30:33 -3 37
L D D D L
10 30 9 10 11 28:31 -3 37
L D W W L
11 30 5 16 9 27:30 -3 31
W D D D D
12 30 6 9 15 26:46 -20 27
L W L W W
13 30 5 10 15 19:36 -17 25
L D D L W
14 30 5 7 18 24:41 -17 22
L D L L L
15 30 4 9 17 14:39 -25 21
W D D W L
16 30 4 3 23 16:66 -50 15
L L L L L