Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
84.7%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
84.6%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
68.8%
|
- |
Excelsior
Utrecht
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Excelsior
30 matches
Utrecht
44 matches
| Excelsior | Statistic | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Wins | 17 |
| 7 | Draws | 10 |
| 16 | Losses | 17 |
| 31 | Goals For | 68 |
| 51 | Goals Against | 55 |
| 1.03 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.55 |
| 1.7 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.25 |
| 19 | BTTS Yes | 27 |
| 24 | Over 1.5 | 35 |
| 18 | Over 2.5 | 22 |
| 7 | Over 3.5 | 14 |
| 5 | Clean Sheets | 9 |
| 7 | Failed To Score | 10 |
| 4.03 | Shots On Goal | 4.43 |
| 12.13 | Total Shots | 12.32 |
| 4.03 | Corners | 4.39 |
| 46.7% | Ball Possession | 41.9% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Utrecht's more proactive style and Excelsior's more cautious structure. Utrecht seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Utrecht. Excelsior have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Utrecht carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 8 with 44 points while Excelsior sit 16 on 28, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Excelsior expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Utrecht in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Utrecht having the stronger overall control.
With 28 points from 30 games and a place of 16, Excelsior still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 7 wins, 7 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 31:51, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Noah Naujoks (8 goals), I. Yegoian (4 goals), Arthur Zagre (3 goals), with creative support from G. de Regt (5 assists), I. Yegoian (2 assists), D. Sanches Fernandes (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with M. Jonathans, S. Henderikx, M. Tielemans unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
From their first 30 matches, Utrecht have collected 44 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. The record of 12 wins, 8 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 49:36 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through G. Zechiel (8 goals), D. de Wit (5 goals), V. Jensen (5 goals), with creative support from Souffian El Karouani (10 assists), G. Zechiel (4 assists), Y. Cathline (4 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. Although they are without S. Haller, V. Jensen, M. Rodriguez, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Excelsior won 2 times, Utrecht won 7 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:26 from Excelsior's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.
Excelsior
9
3
6
3
3
4
Lineups
Excelsior
NAC Breda
Excelsior
Dordrecht
Excelsior
Cambuur
Excelsior
Sparta Rotterdam
Excelsior
FC Volendam
Excelsior
Groningen
Excelsior
PEC Zwolle
Excelsior
NEC Nijmegen
Excelsior
Heracles
Excelsior
Feyenoord
Excelsior
Heerenveen
Excelsior
GO Ahead Eagles
Excelsior
Fortuna Sittard
Excelsior
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
NAC Breda
Excelsior
Ajax
Excelsior
Twente
Excelsior
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
Telstar
Excelsior
PSV Eindhoven
Utrecht
Cambuur
Utrecht
V-varen Nagasaki
Utrecht
Apollon Limassol
Utrecht
De Graafschap
Utrecht
Ajax
Utrecht
Heerenveen
Utrecht
Fortuna Sittard
Utrecht
Ajax
Utrecht
NAC Breda
Utrecht
Telstar
Utrecht
PSV Eindhoven
Utrecht
GO Ahead Eagles
Utrecht
Twente
Utrecht
Heracles
Utrecht
AZ Alkmaar
Utrecht
PEC Zwolle
Utrecht
Groningen
Utrecht
NEC Nijmegen
Utrecht
Feyenoord
Utrecht
Heerenveen
Excelsior
Cambuur
Excelsior
FC Volendam
Excelsior
NEC Nijmegen
Excelsior
Heerenveen
Excelsior
GO Ahead Eagles
Excelsior
AZ Alkmaar
Excelsior
Ajax
Excelsior
Telstar
Excelsior
PEC Zwolle
Excelsior
Groningen
Excelsior
NAC Breda
Excelsior
Heracles
Excelsior
Fortuna Sittard
Excelsior
PSV Eindhoven
Excelsior
Sparta Rotterdam
Excelsior
Twente
Excelsior
Feyenoord
Utrecht
Cambuur
Utrecht
Ajax
Utrecht
Ajax
Utrecht
PSV Eindhoven
Utrecht
Twente
Utrecht
Heracles
Utrecht
Groningen
Utrecht
NEC Nijmegen
Utrecht
Heerenveen
Utrecht
Celtic
Utrecht
FC Volendam
Utrecht
NAC Breda
Utrecht
GO Ahead Eagles
Utrecht
Real Betis
Utrecht
Telstar
Utrecht
AZ Alkmaar
Utrecht
SC Freiburg
Utrecht
Feyenoord
Utrecht
Brann
Utrecht
Fortuna Sittard
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34 | 27 | 3 | 4 | 101:45 | 56 | 84 |
W
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 70:44 | 26 | 65 |
W
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 3 | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 77:53 | 24 | 59 |
W
L
D
D
D
|
|
| 4 | 34 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 59:40 | 19 | 58 |
L
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 5 | 34 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 62:41 | 21 | 56 |
D
L
D
W
W
|
|
| 6 |
Utrecht
Away
|
34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 55:42 | 13 | 53 |
W
W
W
L
W
|
| 7 | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 58:51 | 7 | 52 |
D
D
D
D
W
|
|
| 8 | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 57:53 | 4 | 51 |
D
L
W
W
L
|
|
| 9 | 34 | 14 | 6 | 14 | 49:45 | 4 | 48 |
W
W
L
L
D
|
|
| 10 | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 40:62 | -22 | 43 |
L
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 11 | 34 | 11 | 6 | 17 | 49:63 | -14 | 39 |
L
W
L
L
D
|
|
| 12 | 34 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 54:53 | 1 | 38 |
L
L
D
D
D
|
|
| 13 |
Excelsior
Home
|
34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 43:56 | -13 | 38 |
W
D
W
W
D
|
| 14 | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 49:55 | -6 | 37 |
W
W
D
W
L
|
|
| 15 | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 44:71 | -27 | 37 |
L
L
W
L
D
|
|
| 16 | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 35:55 | -20 | 32 |
L
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 17 | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 35:58 | -23 | 29 |
D
W
L
L
D
|
|
| 18 | 34 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 35:85 | -50 | 19 |
L
L
L
L
L
|