NETHERLANDS EREDIVISIE
--.--.---- --:--
Stadion Woudestein
Referee: S. van der Eijk
Excelsior
Match Timeline
Utrecht
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
11'
N. Naujoks · Assist: D. Sanches Fernandes
Excelsior
🟨
29'
Matisse Didden
Utrecht
🟨
31'
Matisse Didden
Utrecht
🟥
31'
Matisse Didden
Utrecht
36'
D. Sanches Fernandes · Assist: G. de Regt
Excelsior
🔄
41'
A. Stepanov ↔ S. Horemans
Utrecht
🔄
46'
S. El Karouani ↔ E. Adiele
Utrecht
55'
D. Sanches Fernandes · Assist: A. Zagre
Excelsior
🔄
63'
E. Hansson ↔ S. Wlodarczyk
Excelsior
🟨
64'
Gjivai Zechiël
Utrecht
69'
I. Yegoian
Excelsior
VAR
72'
Irakli Yegoian
Excelsior
🔄
72'
G. Zechiel ↔ C. Bozdogan
Utrecht
🔄
76'
D. Sanches Fernandes ↔ A. Carlen
Excelsior
🔄
76'
I. Yegoian ↔ I. Bronkhorst
Excelsior
🔄
80'
Y. Cathline ↔ J. Karlsson
Utrecht
🔄
80'
A. Alarcon ↔ D. Min
Utrecht
🔄
85'
N. Naujoks ↔ S. Janssen
Excelsior
🔄
85'
R. Meissen ↔ G. Cairo
Excelsior
90'
L. Hartjes
Excelsior

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 84.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 84.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 68.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
84.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
84.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
68.8%
-
Probability Distribution
Excelsior Win 3%
Draw 12.3%
Utrecht Win 84.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Excelsior1.12
Utrecht1.61
Recent Form (Last 5)
Excelsior Excelsior
WWDLW
31 GF / 51 GA
Utrecht Utrecht
WLDWL
68 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
1.03
Average Goals Scored
1.55
1.7
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
19
BTTS Yes
27
18
Over 2.5
22
4.03
Shots on Goal
4.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Excelsior Excelsior 30 matches
Utrecht Utrecht 44 matches
Excelsior Statistic Utrecht
7 Wins 17
7 Draws 10
16 Losses 17
31 Goals For 68
51 Goals Against 55
1.03 Avg Goals Scored 1.55
1.7 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
19 BTTS Yes 27
24 Over 1.5 35
18 Over 2.5 22
7 Over 3.5 14
5 Clean Sheets 9
7 Failed To Score 10
4.03 Shots On Goal 4.43
12.13 Total Shots 12.32
4.03 Corners 4.39
46.7% Ball Possession 41.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Utrecht's more proactive style and Excelsior's more cautious structure. Utrecht seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Utrecht. Excelsior have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Utrecht carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 8 with 44 points while Excelsior sit 16 on 28, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Excelsior expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Utrecht in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Utrecht having the stronger overall control.

Excelsior Analysis

With 28 points from 30 games and a place of 16, Excelsior still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 7 wins, 7 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 31:51, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Noah Naujoks (8 goals), I. Yegoian (4 goals), Arthur Zagre (3 goals), with creative support from G. de Regt (5 assists), I. Yegoian (2 assists), D. Sanches Fernandes (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with M. Jonathans, S. Henderikx, M. Tielemans unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Utrecht Analysis

From their first 30 matches, Utrecht have collected 44 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. The record of 12 wins, 8 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 49:36 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through G. Zechiel (8 goals), D. de Wit (5 goals), V. Jensen (5 goals), with creative support from Souffian El Karouani (10 assists), G. Zechiel (4 assists), Y. Cathline (4 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. Although they are without S. Haller, V. Jensen, M. Rodriguez, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Excelsior won 2 times, Utrecht won 7 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:26 from Excelsior's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (97%)
Predicted formations: Excelsior 5-4-1 / Utrecht 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Excelsior 3, Utrecht 8
H2H summary: Excelsior wins 2, draws 6, Utrecht wins 7
Stats
Excelsior Excelsior
Utrecht Utrecht
Shots on Goal
9
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
4
3 Corner Kicks 2
12 Fouls 8
3 Offsides 1
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Goal 3
6 Shots off Goal 3
3 Blocked Shots 4
14 Shots insidebox 7
4 Shots outsidebox 3
3 Goalkeeper Saves 4
529 Total passes 360
459 Passes accurate 277
3.31 expected_goals 0.84
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Excelsior
Formation
Utrecht
S. van Gassel
S. van Gassel
R. Meissen
R. Meissen
C. Widell
C. Widell
L. Schouten
L. Schouten
A. Zagre
🎯
A. Zagre
N. Naujoks
N. Naujoks
L. Hartjes
L. Hartjes
I. Yegoian
I. Yegoian
D. Sanches Fernandes
⚽ 2 🎯
D. Sanches Fernandes
G. de Regt
🎯
G. de Regt
E. Hansson
E. Hansson
V. Barkas
V. Barkas
N. Vesterlund
N. Vesterlund
M. Didden
M. Didden
M. van der Hoorn
M. van der Hoorn
S. El Karouani
S. El Karouani
A. Engwanda
A. Engwanda
G. Zechiel
G. Zechiel
A. Alarcon
A. Alarcon
D. de Wit
D. de Wit
Y. Cathline
Y. Cathline
A. Stepanov
A. Stepanov
Excelsior 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
S. van Gassel
G
3
R. Meissen
↓ 85'
D
4
C. Widell
D
14
L. Schouten
D
12
A. Zagre
🎯 55'
D
10
N. Naujoks
⚽ 11' ↓ 85'
M
20
L. Hartjes
⚽ 90'
M
23
I. Yegoian
⚽ 69' ↓ 76'
M
30
D. Sanches Fernandes
⚽ 36' ⚽ 55' 🎯 11' ↓ 76'
F
11
G. de Regt
🎯 36'
F
7
E. Hansson
↓ 63'
F
Substitutes
16
C. Raatsie
G
29
M. van Duinen
F
15
S. Janssen
↑ 85'
D
6
A. Carlen
↑ 76'
M
33
J. Bergraaf
F
2
I. Bronkhorst
↑ 76'
D
9
S. Wlodarczyk
↑ 63'
F
24
G. Cairo
↑ 85'
M
Utrecht 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
V. Barkas
G
23
N. Vesterlund
D
40
M. Didden
🟨 29' 🟨 31' 🟥 31'
D
3
M. van der Hoorn
D
16
S. El Karouani
↓ 46'
D
27
A. Engwanda
M
21
G. Zechiel
↓ 72' 🟨 64'
M
77
A. Alarcon
↓ 80'
M
20
D. de Wit
M
10
Y. Cathline
↓ 80'
M
18
A. Stepanov
↓ 41'
F
Substitutes
33
K. Gadellaa
G
51
M. Eppink
G
11
J. Karlsson
↑ 80'
F
44
M. Eerdhuijzen
D
15
A. Blake
F
5
E. Adiele
↑ 46'
D
2
S. Horemans
↑ 41'
D
8
C. Bozdogan
↑ 72'
M
9
D. Min
↑ 80'
F
53
N. Viereck
D
Last matches: Excelsior
18.07.26
Fri
Excelsior
NAC Breda
3
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
Excelsior
Dordrecht
2
0
W
04.07.26
Fri
Excelsior
Cambuur
3
2
W
17.05.26
Ere
Excelsior
Sparta Rotterdam
3
2
W
10.05.26
Ere
Excelsior
FC Volendam
1
1
D
02.05.26
Ere
Excelsior
Groningen
3
2
W
12.04.26
Ere
Excelsior
PEC Zwolle
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ere
Excelsior
NEC Nijmegen
0
2
L
20.03.26
Ere
Excelsior
Heracles
1
1
D
15.03.26
Ere
Excelsior
Feyenoord
1
2
L
07.03.26
Ere
Excelsior
Heerenveen
1
2
L
01.03.26
Ere
Excelsior
GO Ahead Eagles
0
1
L
20.02.26
Ere
Excelsior
Fortuna Sittard
1
2
L
14.02.26
Ere
Excelsior
AZ Alkmaar
1
2
L
06.02.26
Ere
Excelsior
NAC Breda
2
0
W
01.02.26
Ere
Excelsior
Ajax
2
2
D
24.01.26
Ere
Excelsior
Twente
0
0
D
21.01.26
Ere
Excelsior
AZ Alkmaar
1
1
D
17.01.26
Ere
Excelsior
Telstar
2
2
D
10.01.26
Ere
Excelsior
PSV Eindhoven
1
5
L
Last matches: Utrecht
24.07.26
Fri
Utrecht
Cambuur
0
1
L
17.07.26
Fri
Utrecht
V-varen Nagasaki
3
2
W
07.07.26
Fri
Utrecht
Apollon Limassol
0
1
L
27.06.26
Fri
Utrecht
De Graafschap
1
2
L
24.05.26
Ere
Utrecht
Ajax
0
0
D
21.05.26
Ere
Utrecht
Heerenveen
3
2
W
17.05.26
Ere
Utrecht
Fortuna Sittard
2
0
W
10.05.26
Ere
Utrecht
Ajax
2
1
W
02.05.26
Ere
Utrecht
NAC Breda
2
0
W
11.04.26
Ere
Utrecht
Telstar
4
1
W
04.04.26
Ere
Utrecht
PSV Eindhoven
3
4
L
22.03.26
Ere
Utrecht
GO Ahead Eagles
2
0
W
15.03.26
Ere
Utrecht
Twente
2
0
W
06.03.26
Ere
Utrecht
Heracles
0
0
D
01.03.26
Ere
Utrecht
AZ Alkmaar
2
0
W
22.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
PEC Zwolle
1
1
D
14.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
Groningen
2
1
W
11.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
NEC Nijmegen
3
1
W
08.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
Feyenoord
0
1
L
01.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
Heerenveen
1
1
D
H2H: Excelsior vs Utrecht
26.04.26
H2H
Excelsior
Utrecht
5
0
W
24.08.25
H2H
Utrecht
Excelsior
4
1
L
27.01.24
H2H
Excelsior
Utrecht
1
1
D
12.11.23
H2H
Utrecht
Excelsior
2
2
D
25.01.23
H2H
Utrecht
Excelsior
1
0
L
02.10.22
H2H
Excelsior
Utrecht
0
1
L
23.02.19
H2H
Utrecht
Excelsior
0
0
D
30.11.18
H2H
Excelsior
Utrecht
3
3
D
04.02.18
H2H
Excelsior
Utrecht
2
2
D
19.11.17
H2H
Utrecht
Excelsior
3
1
L
04.04.17
H2H
Excelsior
Utrecht
1
3
L
06.11.16
H2H
Utrecht
Excelsior
2
1
L
18.03.16
H2H
Utrecht
Excelsior
2
1
L
03.10.15
H2H
Excelsior
Utrecht
1
0
W
10.05.15
H2H
Utrecht
Excelsior
2
2
D
Last matches: Excelsior
04.07.26
Fri
Excelsior
Cambuur
3
2
W
10.05.26
Ere
Excelsior
FC Volendam
1
1
D
04.04.26
Ere
Excelsior
NEC Nijmegen
0
2
L
07.03.26
Ere
Excelsior
Heerenveen
1
2
L
01.03.26
Ere
Excelsior
GO Ahead Eagles
0
1
L
14.02.26
Ere
Excelsior
AZ Alkmaar
1
2
L
01.02.26
Ere
Excelsior
Ajax
2
2
D
17.01.26
Ere
Excelsior
Telstar
2
2
D
20.12.25
Ere
Excelsior
PEC Zwolle
2
1
W
05.12.25
Ere
Excelsior
Groningen
0
2
L
29.11.25
Ere
Excelsior
NAC Breda
1
0
W
08.11.25
Ere
Excelsior
Heracles
1
2
L
19.10.25
Ere
Excelsior
Fortuna Sittard
1
0
W
27.09.25
Ere
Excelsior
PSV Eindhoven
1
2
L
14.09.25
Ere
Excelsior
Sparta Rotterdam
0
1
L
30.08.25
Ere
Excelsior
Twente
1
0
W
16.08.25
Ere
Excelsior
Feyenoord
1
2
L
H2H at home: Excelsior
26.04.26
H2H
Excelsior
Utrecht
5
0
W
27.01.24
H2H
Excelsior
Utrecht
1
1
D
02.10.22
H2H
Excelsior
Utrecht
0
1
L
30.11.18
H2H
Excelsior
Utrecht
3
3
D
04.02.18
H2H
Excelsior
Utrecht
2
2
D
04.04.17
H2H
Excelsior
Utrecht
1
3
L
03.10.15
H2H
Excelsior
Utrecht
1
0
W
Last matches: Utrecht
24.07.26
Fri
Utrecht
Cambuur
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ere
Utrecht
Ajax
0
0
D
10.05.26
Ere
Utrecht
Ajax
2
1
W
04.04.26
Ere
Utrecht
PSV Eindhoven
3
4
L
15.03.26
Ere
Utrecht
Twente
2
0
W
06.03.26
Ere
Utrecht
Heracles
0
0
D
14.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
Groningen
2
1
W
11.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
NEC Nijmegen
3
1
W
01.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
Heerenveen
1
1
D
29.01.26
UEF
Utrecht
Celtic
2
4
L
18.01.26
Ere
Utrecht
FC Volendam
1
2
L
14.12.25
Ere
Utrecht
NAC Breda
1
1
D
30.11.25
Ere
Utrecht
GO Ahead Eagles
2
2
D
27.11.25
UEF
Utrecht
Real Betis
1
2
L
23.11.25
Ere
Utrecht
Telstar
1
1
D
26.10.25
Ere
Utrecht
AZ Alkmaar
1
4
L
23.10.25
UEF
Utrecht
SC Freiburg
0
2
L
05.10.25
Ere
Utrecht
Feyenoord
2
3
L
02.10.25
UEF
Utrecht
Brann
0
1
L
20.09.25
Ere
Utrecht
Fortuna Sittard
0
1
L
H2H away: Utrecht
26.04.26
H2H
Excelsior
Utrecht
5
0
L
27.01.24
H2H
Excelsior
Utrecht
1
1
D
02.10.22
H2H
Excelsior
Utrecht
0
1
W
30.11.18
H2H
Excelsior
Utrecht
3
3
D
04.02.18
H2H
Excelsior
Utrecht
2
2
D
04.04.17
H2H
Excelsior
Utrecht
1
3
W
03.10.15
H2H
Excelsior
Utrecht
1
0
L

Standings

Eredivisie
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 27 3 4 101:45 56 84
W W D W W
2 34 19 8 7 70:44 26 65
W D W W D
3 34 16 11 7 77:53 24 59
W L D D D
4 34 15 13 6 59:40 19 58
L W D D W
5 34 14 14 6 62:41 21 56
D L D W W
6 34 15 8 11 55:42 13 53
W W W L W
7 34 14 10 10 58:51 7 52
D D D D W
8 34 14 9 11 57:53 4 51
D L W W L
9 34 14 6 14 49:45 4 48
W W L L D
10 34 12 7 15 40:62 -22 43
L L D L L
11 34 11 6 17 49:63 -14 39
L W L L D
12 34 8 14 12 54:53 1 38
L L D D D
13 34 10 8 16 43:56 -13 38
W D W W D
14 34 9 10 15 49:55 -6 37
W W D W L
15 34 9 10 15 44:71 -27 37
L L W L D
16 34 8 8 18 35:55 -20 32
L D L W L
17 34 6 11 17 35:58 -23 29
D W L L D
18 34 5 4 25 35:85 -50 19
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Eerste Divisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie

Missing Players

Excelsior 3 missing
-
M. Jonathans
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
S. Henderikx
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
M. Tielemans
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
Utrecht 8 missing
-
S. Haller
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
V. Jensen
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
M. Rodriguez
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
O. Agougil
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
J. van Ommeren
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
M. Brouwer
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
E. Demircan
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
N. Viergever
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT