ARGENTINA LIGA PROFESIONAL ARGENTINA
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Ciudad de La Plata
Referee: Juan Pafundi, Argentina
Estudiantes L.P.
Match Timeline
Newells Old Boys
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
E. Mancuso ↔ E. Meza
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
46'
L. Piovi ↔ A. Castro
Estudiantes L.P.
🟨
55'
L. Gonzalez Pirez
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
73'
T. Rios ↔ M. E. Garcia
Newells Old Boys
🔄
73'
F. Guch ↔ J. Gomez
Newells Old Boys
🔄
74'
J. Burgos ↔ E. Cetre
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
74'
J. Correa ↔ B. Aguirre
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
80'
M. Coccaro ↔ F. Scarpeccio
Newells Old Boys
🔄
80'
R. Herrera ↔ L. Gomez
Newells Old Boys
🔄
83'
B. Rodriguez ↔ A. Gaich
Estudiantes L.P.
🟨
88'
L. Gomez
Newells Old Boys
🔄
90+2'
W. Mazzantti ↔ O. Salomon
Newells Old Boys

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.9%
Odds 1.75
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.37
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.9%
1.75
BTTS Yes
71%
2.10
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.37
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.58
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.75
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Estudiantes L.P. Win 65.9%
Draw 3.8%
Newells Old Boys Win 30.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Estudiantes L.P.1.42
Newells Old Boys0.86
Recent Form (Last 5)
Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P.
WWDLW
46 GF / 22 GA
Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys
WLDWL
23 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
1
0.65
Average Goals Conceded
1.52
10
BTTS Yes
12
11
Over 2.5
9
5
Shots on Goal
3.14

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P. 34 matches
Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys 23 matches
Estudiantes L.P. Statistic Newells Old Boys
17 Wins 6
8 Draws 7
9 Losses 10
46 Goals For 23
22 Goals Against 35
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 1
0.65 Avg Goals Conceded 1.52
10 BTTS Yes 12
21 Over 1.5 19
11 Over 2.5 9
4 Over 3.5 5
15 Clean Sheets 4
12 Failed To Score 8
5 Shots On Goal 3.14
14.07 Total Shots 9.32
4.57 Corners 3.77
53.8% Ball Possession 42.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Estudiantes L.P.'s more proactive style and Newells Old Boys's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Newells Old Boys. Estudiantes L.P. have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Estudiantes L.P. arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 31 points compared to Newells Old Boys in 14 on 15, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Estudiantes L.P. Analysis

Estudiantes L.P. approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 1 with 31 points from 16 matches. Their record of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 19:7, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Adolfo Gaich (3 goals), Alexis Castro (2 goals), Guido Carrillo (1 goals), with creative support from Tiago Palacios (3 assists), Guido Carrillo (1 assists), Mikel Amondarain (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Newells Old Boys Analysis

With 15 points from 16 games and a place of 14, Newells Old Boys still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 15:27 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Juan Ignacio Ramírez (3 goals), Matías Cóccaro (2 goals), Jeronimo Russo (1 goals), with creative support from Jeronimo Russo (2 assists), Walter Mazzantti (1 assists), Facundo Guch (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Estudiantes L.P. won 7 times, Newells Old Boys won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:14 from Estudiantes L.P.'s perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.2%)
Predicted formations: Estudiantes L.P. 4-2-3-1 / Newells Old Boys 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Estudiantes L.P. wins 7, draws 4, Newells Old Boys wins 4

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
D L W L L
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
W D D D W
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
D D D D W
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
D D L L W
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
L D W L L
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
L D L W L
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
D W L L W
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
W W L L W
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
D W W W W
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
W W D W L
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
W W W L W
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
L W D W L
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
D L L W W
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
D W W L D
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
D D L W L
Knockout Phase