PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio António Coimbra da Mota
Referee: C. Macedo
Estoril
Match Timeline
Famalicao
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
46'
Tom Van De Looi
Famalicao
51'
J. De Haas
Famalicao
🟨
56'
Mathias De Amorim
Famalicao
🔄
76'
P. Amaral ↔ G. Costa
Estoril
🔄
83'
M. De Amorim ↔ M. Pena
Famalicao
🔄
87'
G. Sa ↔ L. Realpe
Famalicao
🔄
87'
S. Elisor ↔ U. Abubakar
Famalicao
🔄
88'
Ferro ↔ A. Marques
Estoril
🔄
90+1'
Gil Dias ↔ Garcia
Famalicao

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 61.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 80%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 84.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
61.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
80%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
84.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Estoril Win 23.1%
Draw 14.9%
Famalicao Win 61.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Estoril1.38
Famalicao1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Estoril Estoril
WWDLW
51 GF / 51 GA
Famalicao Famalicao
WLDWL
38 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.7
Average Goals Scored
1.27
1.7
Average Goals Conceded
0.9
17
BTTS Yes
11
20
Over 2.5
12
4.1
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Estoril Estoril 30 matches
Famalicao Famalicao 30 matches
Estoril Statistic Famalicao
10 Wins 13
7 Draws 9
13 Losses 8
51 Goals For 38
51 Goals Against 27
1.7 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
1.7 Avg Goals Conceded 0.9
17 BTTS Yes 11
23 Over 1.5 17
20 Over 2.5 12
17 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 14
9 Failed To Score 8
4.1 Shots On Goal 4.33
11.67 Total Shots 12.5
4.33 Corners 5.33
52.7% Ball Possession 51.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Famalicao. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Estoril expected to line up in 4-3-1-2 and Famalicao in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Famalicao having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Estoril have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Estoril Analysis

With 37 points from 30 games and a place of 10, Estoril still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 10 wins, 7 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 51:50, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Y. Begraoui (19 goals), João Carvalho (6 goals), Alejandro Marqués (4 goals), with creative support from João Carvalho (11 assists), Jordan Holsgrove (7 assists), R. Guitane (5 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Famalicao Analysis

Famalicao come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 48 points from 30 matches. The record of 13 wins, 9 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 36:25 goal balance, points toward mixed form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their attacking threat comes through Sorriso (5 goals), G. Sa (4 goals), Gil Dias (4 goals), with creative support from Gil Dias (7 assists), Sorriso (4 assists), Pedro Santos (3 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Estoril won 4 times, Famalicao won 9 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:23 from Estoril's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.1%)
Predicted formations: Estoril 4-3-1-2 / Famalicao 4-3-3
H2H summary: Estoril wins 4, draws 2, Famalicao wins 9
Stats
Estoril Estoril
Famalicao Famalicao
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
0
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
0
9 Corner Kicks 4
19 Fouls 11
3 Offsides 0
55% Ball Possession 45%
9 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Goal 6
3 Shots off Goal 0
4 Blocked Shots 0
3 Shots insidebox 6
6 Shots outsidebox 0
4 Goalkeeper Saves 3
440 Total passes 366
372 Passes accurate 287
0.66 expected_goals 1.05
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Estoril
Formation
Famalicao
M. Turk
M. Turk
F. Bacher
F. Bacher
A. Tsoungui
A. Tsoungui
Ferro
Ferro
R. Sanchez
R. Sanchez
Xeka
Xeka
J. Holsgrove
J. Holsgrove
P. Amaral
P. Amaral
R. Guitane
R. Guitane
J. Carvalho
J. Carvalho
Y. Begraoui
Y. Begraoui
L. Carevic
L. Carevic
R. Pinheiro
R. Pinheiro
I. Ba
I. Ba
J. De Haas
J. De Haas
Rafa Soares
Rafa Soares
T. Van de Looi
T. Van de Looi
M. De Amorim
M. De Amorim
Gil Dias
Gil Dias
G. Sa
G. Sa
Sorriso
Sorriso
S. Elisor
S. Elisor
Estoril 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
16
M. Turk
G
25
F. Bacher
D
5
A. Tsoungui
D
4
Ferro
↓ 88'
D
2
R. Sanchez
M
8
Xeka
M
10
J. Holsgrove
M
24
P. Amaral
↓ 76'
M
99
R. Guitane
F
12
J. Carvalho
F
14
Y. Begraoui
F
Substitutes
1
J. Robles
G
31
D. Dias
G
21
Pizzi
M
20
G. Costa
↑ 76'
D
9
A. Marques
↑ 88'
F
7
N. Lominadze
M
97
L. Gomes
M
22
P. Carvalho
D
70
Peixinho
F
Famalicao 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
25
L. Carevic
G
17
R. Pinheiro
D
55
I. Ba
D
16
J. De Haas
⚽ 51'
D
5
Rafa Soares
D
6
T. Van de Looi
🟨 46'
M
14
M. De Amorim
↓ 83' 🟨 56'
M
23
Gil Dias
↓ 90+1'
M
20
G. Sa
↓ 87'
M
7
Sorriso
M
12
S. Elisor
↓ 87'
F
Substitutes
1
I. Zlobin
G
28
Pedro Bondo
D
80
P. Santos
F
77
A. Joujou
F
8
M. Pena
↑ 83'
M
3
L. Realpe
↑ 87'
D
2
Garcia
↑ 90+1'
D
15
O. Mamageishvili
M
9
U. Abubakar
↑ 87'
F
Last matches: Estoril
16.05.26
Pri
Estoril
Benfica
1
3
L
10.05.26
Pri
Estoril
Alverca
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pri
Estoril
SC Braga
1
1
D
20.04.26
Pri
Estoril
Moreirense
0
1
L
12.04.26
Pri
Estoril
FC Porto
1
3
L
06.04.26
Pri
Estoril
Arouca
2
3
L
22.03.26
Pri
Estoril
Rio Ave
1
2
L
15.03.26
Pri
Estoril
Nacional
1
0
W
07.03.26
Pri
Estoril
Casa Pia
0
0
D
27.02.26
Pri
Estoril
Sporting CP
0
3
L
22.02.26
Pri
Estoril
GIL Vicente
3
1
W
15.02.26
Pri
Estoril
AVS
0
3
L
07.02.26
Pri
Estoril
Tondela
2
2
D
31.01.26
Pri
Estoril
Santa Clara
4
2
W
24.01.26
Pri
Estoril
Guimaraes
4
2
W
19.01.26
Pri
Estoril
Estrela
5
0
W
03.01.26
Pri
Estoril
Benfica
1
3
L
27.12.25
Pri
Estoril
Alverca
4
1
W
19.12.25
Pri
Estoril
SC Braga
1
0
W
14.12.25
Pri
Estoril
Famalicao
0
4
L
Last matches: Famalicao
16.05.26
Pri
Famalicao
Alverca
1
0
W
11.05.26
Pri
Famalicao
Estrela
0
0
D
02.05.26
Pri
Famalicao
Benfica
2
2
D
19.04.26
Pri
Famalicao
SC Braga
2
2
D
10.04.26
Pri
Famalicao
Moreirense
1
1
D
04.04.26
Pri
Famalicao
FC Porto
2
2
D
21.03.26
Pri
Famalicao
Nacional
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Famalicao
Guimaraes
2
1
W
06.03.26
Pri
Famalicao
Arouca
1
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Famalicao
Rio Ave
0
0
D
23.02.26
Pri
Famalicao
Casa Pia
2
0
W
15.02.26
Pri
Famalicao
Sporting CP
0
1
L
09.02.26
Pri
Famalicao
AVS
3
1
W
01.02.26
Pri
Famalicao
GIL Vicente
0
5
L
25.01.26
Pri
Famalicao
Tondela
3
0
W
18.01.26
Pri
Famalicao
Santa Clara
1
0
W
04.01.26
Pri
Famalicao
Alverca
0
1
L
27.12.25
Pri
Famalicao
Estrela
2
3
L
22.12.25
Pri
Famalicao
Benfica
0
1
L
14.12.25
Pri
Famalicao
Estoril
4
0
W
H2H: Estoril vs Famalicao
26.04.26
H2H
Estoril
Famalicao
0
1
L
14.12.25
H2H
Famalicao
Estoril
4
0
L
22.11.25
H2H
Estoril
Famalicao
1
2
L
12.04.25
H2H
Famalicao
Estoril
3
0
L
01.12.24
H2H
Estoril
Famalicao
2
1
W
28.04.24
H2H
Estoril
Famalicao
1
0
W
17.12.23
H2H
Famalicao
Estoril
1
1
D
29.01.23
H2H
Famalicao
Estoril
1
0
L
15.12.22
H2H
Estoril
Famalicao
0
1
L
06.08.22
H2H
Estoril
Famalicao
2
0
W
29.04.22
H2H
Famalicao
Estoril
3
1
L
17.12.21
H2H
Estoril
Famalicao
2
2
D
01.08.21
H2H
Famalicao
Estoril
1
0
L
19.05.19
H2H
Estoril
Famalicao
2
1
W
14.01.19
H2H
Famalicao
Estoril
2
0
L
Last matches: Estoril
16.05.26
Pri
Estoril
Benfica
1
3
L
12.04.26
Pri
Estoril
FC Porto
1
3
L
22.03.26
Pri
Estoril
Rio Ave
1
2
L
07.03.26
Pri
Estoril
Casa Pia
0
0
D
22.02.26
Pri
Estoril
GIL Vicente
3
1
W
07.02.26
Pri
Estoril
Tondela
2
2
D
24.01.26
Pri
Estoril
Guimaraes
4
2
W
27.12.25
Pri
Estoril
Alverca
4
1
W
19.12.25
Pri
Estoril
SC Braga
1
0
W
07.12.25
Pri
Estoril
Moreirense
3
3
D
07.11.25
Pri
Estoril
Arouca
4
3
W
26.10.25
Pri
Estoril
Nacional
1
1
D
27.09.25
Pri
Estoril
Sporting CP
0
1
L
13.09.25
Pri
Estoril
AVS
3
1
W
06.09.25
Pri
Estoril
Santa Clara
0
1
L
11.08.25
Pri
Estoril
Estrela
1
1
D
H2H at home: Estoril
26.04.26
H2H
Estoril
Famalicao
0
1
L
22.11.25
H2H
Estoril
Famalicao
1
2
L
01.12.24
H2H
Estoril
Famalicao
2
1
W
28.04.24
H2H
Estoril
Famalicao
1
0
W
15.12.22
H2H
Estoril
Famalicao
0
1
L
06.08.22
H2H
Estoril
Famalicao
2
0
W
17.12.21
H2H
Estoril
Famalicao
2
2
D
19.05.19
H2H
Estoril
Famalicao
2
1
W
Last matches: Famalicao
11.05.26
Pri
Famalicao
Estrela
0
0
D
19.04.26
Pri
Famalicao
SC Braga
2
2
D
04.04.26
Pri
Famalicao
FC Porto
2
2
D
14.03.26
Pri
Famalicao
Guimaraes
2
1
W
01.03.26
Pri
Famalicao
Rio Ave
0
0
D
15.02.26
Pri
Famalicao
Sporting CP
0
1
L
01.02.26
Pri
Famalicao
GIL Vicente
0
5
L
18.01.26
Pri
Famalicao
Santa Clara
1
0
W
04.01.26
Pri
Famalicao
Alverca
0
1
L
22.12.25
Pri
Famalicao
Benfica
0
1
L
29.11.25
Pri
Famalicao
Moreirense
2
2
D
01.11.25
Pri
Famalicao
Nacional
1
0
W
05.10.25
Pri
Famalicao
Arouca
1
1
D
21.09.25
Pri
Famalicao
Casa Pia
1
1
D
30.08.25
Pri
Famalicao
AVS
1
0
W
16.08.25
Pri
Famalicao
Tondela
1
0
W
H2H away: Famalicao
26.04.26
H2H
Estoril
Famalicao
0
1
W
22.11.25
H2H
Estoril
Famalicao
1
2
W
01.12.24
H2H
Estoril
Famalicao
2
1
L
28.04.24
H2H
Estoril
Famalicao
1
0
L
15.12.22
H2H
Estoril
Famalicao
0
1
W
06.08.22
H2H
Estoril
Famalicao
2
0
L
17.12.21
H2H
Estoril
Famalicao
2
2
D
19.05.19
H2H
Estoril
Famalicao
2
1
L