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TUNISIA › LIGUE 1
24.10.2026 15:30
Metlaoui Municipal stadium

ES Metlaoui vs ES Zarzis Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 88.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
88.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
ES Metlaoui Win 47.7%
Draw 11.6%
ES Zarzis Win 40.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
ES Metlaoui0.7
ES Zarzis1.2
Recent Form (Last 5)
ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui
WWDLW
3 GF / 9 GA
ES Zarzis ES Zarzis
WLDWL
5 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
0.5
Average Goals Scored
1
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1
2
BTTS Yes
2
3
Over 2.5
2
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

ES Metlaoui ES Metlaoui 6 matches
ES Zarzis ES Zarzis 5 matches
ES Metlaoui Statistic ES Zarzis
1 Wins 2
0 Draws 0
5 Losses 3
3 Goals For 5
9 Goals Against 5
0.5 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1
2 BTTS Yes 2
3 Over 1.5 3
3 Over 2.5 2
0 Over 3.5 0
1 Clean Sheets 2
3 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. ES Zarzis carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 10 with 6 points while ES Metlaoui sit 14 on 3, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward ES Zarzis having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring ES Zarzis.

ES Metlaoui Analysis

ES Metlaoui sit 14 with 3 points after 5 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 0 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 3:6 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

ES Zarzis Analysis

ES Zarzis sit 10 with 6 points after 5 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 defeats with a 5:5 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, ES Metlaoui won 6 times, ES Zarzis won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:9 from ES Metlaoui's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.69 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.4%)
Predicted formations: ES Metlaoui - / ES Zarzis 4-2-1-3
H2H summary: ES Metlaoui wins 6, draws 4, ES Zarzis wins 3

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 4 2 0 11:6 5 14
W W W D D
2 5 4 0 1 10:7 3 12
W W W L W
4 6 3 2 1 5:2 3 11
L W D W D
5 4 3 0 1 4:2 2 9
L W W W
6 6 2 3 1 6:5 1 9
D D W D W
7 5 2 2 1 6:4 2 8
L W D W D
8 5 2 2 1 3:3 0 8
D L D W W
9 6 2 2 2 5:3 2 8
W D W L D
10 4 2 1 1 7:5 2 7
W W L D
11 6 2 1 3 7:8 -1 7
W L L D W
12 5 2 0 3 5:5 0 6
W L L L W
13 6 1 1 4 2:5 -3 4
D W L L L
14 6 1 0 5 3:9 -6 3
L L L W L
15 6 0 2 4 5:10 -5 2
L L D D L
16 6 0 1 5 1:9 -8 1
L L L L L
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 2