IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
--.--.---- --:--
The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium
Referee: D. Toland
Derry City
Match Timeline
Waterford
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
13'
C. Barr
Derry City
14'
T. Lonergan
Waterford
🔄
56'
J. McClean ↔ R. Slevin
Derry City
🟨
67'
P. McClean
Derry City
69'
T. Lonergan
Waterford
🟨
74'
B. Couto
Waterford
🔄
74'
W. Johnson ↔ D. McMenamy
Waterford
77'
P. Amond · Assist: H. Cann
Waterford
🔄
78'
L. Boyce ↔ T. Doherty
Derry City
🔄
78'
S. Glenfield ↔ L. Heeney
Waterford
🔄
78'
J. Houston ↔ J. Voilas
Waterford
82'
R. Slevin · Assist: M. Duffy
Derry City
85'
A. O'Reilly · Assist: C. Dummigan
Derry City
🔄
86'
C. Noonan ↔ T. Coyle
Waterford
90'
J. Voilas · Assist: T. Lonergan
Waterford

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 79.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
79.4%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
72.9%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Derry City Win 79.4%
Draw 11.3%
Waterford Win 9.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Derry City1.46
Waterford1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Derry City Derry City
WWDLW
31 GF / 30 GA
Waterford Waterford
WLDWL
41 GF / 54 GA
Key Stats
1.19
Average Goals Scored
1.41
1.15
Average Goals Conceded
1.86
16
BTTS Yes
18
13
Over 2.5
16
4.33
Shots on Goal
3.59

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Derry City Derry City 26 matches
Waterford Waterford 29 matches
Derry City Statistic Waterford
6 Wins 8
11 Draws 8
9 Losses 13
31 Goals For 41
30 Goals Against 54
1.19 Avg Goals Scored 1.41
1.15 Avg Goals Conceded 1.86
16 BTTS Yes 18
17 Over 1.5 24
13 Over 2.5 16
6 Over 3.5 13
6 Clean Sheets 3
8 Failed To Score 9
4.33 Shots On Goal 3.59
12.33 Total Shots 12.14
5.67 Corners 4.64
51.8% Ball Possession 38.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Derry City's more proactive style and Waterford's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Waterford. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Derry City expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Waterford in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Waterford having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Derry City Analysis

From their first 23 matches, Derry City have collected 26 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Their overall return of 5 wins, 11 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 28:27 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by James Clarke (4 goals), Kévin Santos (3 goals), Afolabi Akinyemi (2 goals), with creative support from Ben Doherty (2 assists), James Clarke (1 assists), Kévin Santos (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Waterford Analysis

Waterford are currently 10 in the standings with 14 points from 21 matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 8 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 25:42 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Tom Lonergan (5 goals), Pádraig Amond (4 goals), John Mahon (3 goals), with creative support from Dean McMenamy (2 assists), Conan Noonan (2 assists), Evan McLaughlin (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Derry City won 9 times, Waterford won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 34:19 from Derry City's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (90.7%)
Predicted formations: Derry City 4-2-3-1 / Waterford 5-3-2
H2H summary: Derry City wins 9, draws 2, Waterford wins 4
Stats
Derry City Derry City
Waterford Waterford
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
8
Blocked Shots
6
4 Corner Kicks 7
5 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 2
70% Ball Possession 30%
16 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Goal 3
6 Shots off Goal 2
8 Blocked Shots 6
0 Goalkeeper Saves 2
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Derry City
Formation
Waterford
B. Maher
B. Maher
B. Cotter
B. Cotter
C. Barr
C. Barr
P. McClean
P. McClean
B. Fleming
B. Fleming
C. Dummigan
🎯
C. Dummigan
J. McClean
J. McClean
A. O'Reilly
A. O'Reilly
J. Olayinka
J. Olayinka
M. Duffy
🎯
M. Duffy
L. Boyce
L. Boyce
S. McMullan
S. McMullan
H. Cann
🎯
H. Cann
J. Mahon
J. Mahon
K. Long
K. Long
J. Houston
J. Houston
S. Glenfield
S. Glenfield
W. Johnson
W. Johnson
B. Couto
B. Couto
C. Noonan
C. Noonan
T. Lonergan
⚽ 2 🎯
T. Lonergan
P. Amond
P. Amond
Derry City 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
B. Maher
2
B. Cotter
22
C. Barr
🟨 13'
3
P. McClean
🟨 67'
19
B. Fleming
23
C. Dummigan
🎯 85'
16
J. McClean
↓ 56'
8
A. O'Reilly
⚽ 85'
28
J. Olayinka
7
M. Duffy
🎯 82'
27
L. Boyce
↓ 78'
Substitutes
13
T. Norcott
6
R. Slevin
⚽ 82' ↑ 56'
31
C. Downey
20
C. Winchester
21
K. Santos
35
L. Kelly
32
T. Doherty
↑ 78'
33
O. O'Brien
34
C. O'Donnell
Waterford 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
S. McMullan
16
H. Cann
🎯 77'
5
J. Mahon
13
K. Long
2
J. Houston
↓ 78'
19
S. Glenfield
↓ 78'
4
W. Johnson
↓ 74'
3
B. Couto
🟨 74'
10
C. Noonan
↓ 86'
18
T. Lonergan
⚽ 14' ⚽ 69' 🎯 90'
9
P. Amond
⚽ 77'
Substitutes
21
A. Doherty
11
T. Coyle
↑ 86'
15
L. Heeney
↑ 78'
20
J. Voilas
⚽ 90' ↑ 78'
27
D. McMenamy
↑ 74'
14
J. Dempsey
32
G. Amedu
17
J. Faria
22
R. Mansfield
Last matches: Derry City
02.08.26
Pre
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
1
1
D
30.07.26
UEF
Derry City
HNK Rijeka
0
1
L
23.07.26
UEF
Derry City
HNK Rijeka
0
1
L
16.07.26
UEF
Derry City
CSKA Sofia
1
2
L
09.07.26
UEF
Derry City
CSKA Sofia
2
3
L
26.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
0
W
22.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
19.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
2
L
12.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
4
1
W
29.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Dundalk
1
2
L
25.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
0
0
D
22.05.26
Pre
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
15.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Waterford
2
2
D
08.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
0
1
L
04.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
1
D
01.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
1
1
D
24.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
0
W
17.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
2
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Dundalk
2
2
D
06.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
Last matches: Waterford
02.08.26
Pre
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
0
W
25.07.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
0
0
D
10.07.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
1
D
26.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
3
2
W
19.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
0
2
L
12.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
4
0
W
29.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
3
3
D
22.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
2
L
18.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
2
1
W
15.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
2
2
D
08.05.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
4
L
04.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
3
3
D
01.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
24.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
1
1
D
18.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
2
L
06.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
20.03.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
16.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
3
4
L
13.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
0
5
L
H2H: Derry City vs Waterford
03.07.26
H2H
Derry City
Waterford
2
4
L
15.05.26
H2H
Waterford
Derry City
2
2
D
27.02.26
H2H
Derry City
Waterford
4
2
W
17.10.25
H2H
Waterford
Derry City
1
2
W
04.07.25
H2H
Derry City
Waterford
7
2
W
25.04.25
H2H
Waterford
Derry City
2
1
L
28.02.25
H2H
Derry City
Waterford
1
2
L
23.08.24
H2H
Waterford
Derry City
0
1
W
03.06.24
H2H
Derry City
Waterford
3
0
W
26.04.24
H2H
Waterford
Derry City
0
2
W
08.03.24
H2H
Derry City
Waterford
3
0
W
02.11.21
H2H
Waterford
Derry City
2
2
D
02.07.21
H2H
Derry City
Waterford
2
0
W
21.05.21
H2H
Waterford
Derry City
0
1
W
03.04.21
H2H
Derry City
Waterford
1
2
L
Last matches: Derry City
30.07.26
UEF
Derry City
HNK Rijeka
0
1
L
16.07.26
UEF
Derry City
CSKA Sofia
1
2
L
26.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
0
W
12.06.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
4
1
W
25.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
0
0
D
22.05.26
Pre
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
04.05.26
Pre
Derry City
Galway United
1
1
D
24.04.26
Pre
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
1
0
W
20.03.26
Pre
Derry City
Drogheda United
2
2
D
13.03.26
Pre
Derry City
Shelbourne
1
2
L
27.02.26
Pre
Derry City
Waterford
4
2
W
20.02.26
Pre
Derry City
Bohemians
0
1
L
13.02.26
Pre
Derry City
Dundalk
2
2
D
06.02.26
Pre
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
2
1
W
H2H at home: Derry City
03.07.26
H2H
Derry City
Waterford
2
4
L
27.02.26
H2H
Derry City
Waterford
4
2
W
04.07.25
H2H
Derry City
Waterford
7
2
W
28.02.25
H2H
Derry City
Waterford
1
2
L
03.06.24
H2H
Derry City
Waterford
3
0
W
08.03.24
H2H
Derry City
Waterford
3
0
W
02.07.21
H2H
Derry City
Waterford
2
0
W
03.04.21
H2H
Derry City
Waterford
1
2
L
Last matches: Waterford
25.07.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
0
0
D
26.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
3
2
W
29.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
3
3
D
22.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
2
L
08.05.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
4
L
01.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
2
L
06.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
1
1
D
16.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
3
4
L
13.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
0
5
L
27.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
2
4
L
13.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
0
2
L
23.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Wexford
1
0
W
14.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Cork City
0
1
L
10.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Cobh Ramblers
3
1
W
06.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Bray Wanderers
2
1
W
H2H away: Waterford
03.07.26
H2H
Derry City
Waterford
2
4
W
27.02.26
H2H
Derry City
Waterford
4
2
L
04.07.25
H2H
Derry City
Waterford
7
2
L
28.02.25
H2H
Derry City
Waterford
1
2
W
03.06.24
H2H
Derry City
Waterford
3
0
L
08.03.24
H2H
Derry City
Waterford
3
0
L
02.07.21
H2H
Derry City
Waterford
2
0
L
03.04.21
H2H
Derry City
Waterford
1
2
W

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 6 5 40:22 18 51
D W W D W
2 26 12 8 6 41:22 19 44
D D D W L
3 26 12 8 6 41:28 13 44
D W W W L
4 26 9 10 7 40:38 2 37
D D L L L
5 25 8 10 7 35:36 -1 34
L W D L D
6 26 6 12 8 33:32 1 30
D L W D L
7 25 7 8 10 33:40 -7 29
D D W L L
8 26 6 9 11 31:43 -12 27
D D W L L
9 26 5 10 11 34:47 -13 25
W D D W W
10 26 5 7 14 23:43 -20 22
D D L L D
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation