COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
04.09.2026 01:00
Estadio Deportivo Cali
Referee: Steven Camargo
Deportivo Pereira
Match Timeline
Independiente Medellin
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
Hayen Palacios
Independiente Medellin
🟨
27'
Halam Loboa
Independiente Medellin
🟨
44'
Miguel Aguirre
Deportivo Pereira
🔄
46'
M. Aguirre ↔ F. Delgado
Deportivo Pereira
🔄
46'
H. Palacios ↔ E. Mena Perea
Independiente Medellin
48'
J. Montano · Assist: E. Mena Perea
Independiente Medellin
52'
Yony Gonzalez
Independiente Medellin
🟨
54'
Joaquin Varela
Independiente Medellin
🔄
55'
F. Mosquera ↔ M. Perez
Deportivo Pereira
🟨
64'
Tobias Bovone
Deportivo Pereira
🟨
65'
Kevin Mantilla
Independiente Medellin
🔄
67'
H. Loboa ↔ A. Martegani
Independiente Medellin
🔄
67'
J. Quintero ↔ D. Moreno
Independiente Medellin
🔄
67'
Yony Gonzalez ↔ K. Klinger
Independiente Medellin
🔄
68'
T. Bovone ↔ Y. Quinones
Deportivo Pereira
🔄
68'
N. Rengifo ↔ A. Plata
Deportivo Pereira
🔄
73'
C. Lucumi ↔ J. Medina
Independiente Medellin
81'
K. Klinger · Assist: J. Medina
Independiente Medellin
🔄
85'
J. Largacha ↔ J. Belacazar
Deportivo Pereira
🔄
90+1'
J. Montano ↔ D. Moreno
Independiente Medellin

Deportivo Pereira vs Independiente Medellin Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 67.6%
Odds 1.52
BTTS
No
Probability 56%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds 2.03
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
67.6%
1.52
BTTS No
56%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
2.03
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
88.2%
1.14
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.33
Correct Score 0-1
-
7.00
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Pereira Win 27.5%
Draw 4.9%
Independiente Medellin Win 67.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Pereira0.95
Independiente Medellin1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pereira
WWDLW
17 GF / 34 GA
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin
WLDWL
50 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
0.74
Average Goals Scored
1.43
1.48
Average Goals Conceded
1.26
9
BTTS Yes
24
9
Over 2.5
20
3.26
Shots on Goal
4.24

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pereira 23 matches
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 35 matches
Deportivo Pereira Statistic Independiente Medellin
2 Wins 16
9 Draws 8
12 Losses 11
17 Goals For 50
34 Goals Against 44
0.74 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
1.48 Avg Goals Conceded 1.26
9 BTTS Yes 24
12 Over 1.5 26
9 Over 2.5 20
7 Over 3.5 10
5 Clean Sheets 8
13 Failed To Score 5
3.26 Shots On Goal 4.24
8.91 Total Shots 13.03
2.39 Corners 4.82
43.8% Ball Possession 48.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Independiente Medellin's more proactive style and Deportivo Pereira's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Independiente Medellin. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Pereira expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Independiente Medellin in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independiente Medellin having the stronger overall control. Independiente Medellin carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 11 with 26 points while Deportivo Pereira sit 20 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Deportivo Pereira Analysis

Deportivo Pereira approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 20 with 10 points from 19 matches. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 7 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 15:32 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Independiente Medellin Analysis

Independiente Medellin are currently 11 in the standings with 26 points from 19 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, while the 26:24 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on John Edwin Montaño (2 goals), Hayen Palacios (1 goals), Jhan Mena (1 goals), with creative support from John Edwin Montaño (1 assists), Hayen Palacios (1 assists), Yony González (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Pereira won 3 times, Independiente Medellin won 6 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:18 from Deportivo Pereira's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.1%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Pereira 4-2-3-1 / Independiente Medellin 4-4-2
H2H summary: Deportivo Pereira wins 3, draws 6, Independiente Medellin wins 6

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W W W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L D D L D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
W D L D L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
L W D W D
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
W L L W D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L L W W D
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W W D W D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
L W D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W W D D L
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W W D D L
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
D L W W L
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D L D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
D W D D W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D L
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L W W L L
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L L W W D
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
L L D L W
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D L D L W
Post season qualification