09.08.2026 18:00
Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
Referee: Julio Cesar Quiroz, Peru
Deportivo Garcilaso
Match Timeline
UCV Moquegua
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
26'
B. Da Silva · Assist: F. Arancibia
Deportivo Garcilaso
🟨
29'
Yorman Zapata
UCV Moquegua
🔄
60'
A. Davila ↔ A. Lecaros
UCV Moquegua
🔄
62'
C. Olivares ↔ F. Castelli
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
64'
J. Collazos ↔ M. Negron
UCV Moquegua
🔄
65'
C. Enciso ↔ C. Ramirez
UCV Moquegua
🔄
70'
K. Sandoval ↔ A. Ascues
Deportivo Garcilaso
🟨
72'
Claudio Ramírez
UCV Moquegua
🔄
79'
E. Lastre ↔ Bryan Angulo
UCV Moquegua
🔄
79'
E. Montenegro ↔ E. M. Santillan Vargas
UCV Moquegua
83'
F. Arancibia · Assist: A. Gonzalez
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
87'
F. Arancibia ↔ J. A. Rosell Delgado
Deportivo Garcilaso
🔄
87'
B. Da Silva ↔ S. Ramirez
Deportivo Garcilaso
🟨
88'
Cristian Mejia
UCV Moquegua

Deportivo Garcilaso vs UCV Moquegua Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
-
BTTS No
60.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
65.5%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
75.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Garcilaso Win 88%
Draw 4.8%
UCV Moquegua Win 7.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Garcilaso1.25
UCV Moquegua0.94
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso
WWDLW
24 GF / 20 GA
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua
WLDWL
19 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
0.9
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
10
BTTS Yes
9
7
Over 2.5
12
4.1
Shots on Goal
3.45

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 20 matches
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua 21 matches
Deportivo Garcilaso Statistic UCV Moquegua
9 Wins 5
5 Draws 6
6 Losses 10
24 Goals For 19
20 Goals Against 28
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 0.9
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
10 BTTS Yes 9
11 Over 1.5 13
7 Over 2.5 12
4 Over 3.5 4
7 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 10
4.1 Shots On Goal 3.45
11.6 Total Shots 10.4
3.4 Corners 3.25
45.9% Ball Possession 38.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Deportivo Garcilaso's more proactive style and UCV Moquegua's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Garcilaso expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and UCV Moquegua in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward UCV Moquegua having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors UCV Moquegua. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Deportivo Garcilaso Analysis

Deportivo Garcilaso are currently 7 in the standings with 26 points from 17 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 21:18 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Christopher Olivares (6 goals), Beto Da Silva (3 goals), Francisco Arancibia (2 goals), with creative support from Francisco Arancibia (3 assists), Christopher Olivares (2 assists), Kevin Sandoval (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

UCV Moquegua Analysis

UCV Moquegua approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 18 points from 17 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 17:24, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Edgar Lastre (5 goals), Jeferson Collazos (3 goals), Cristian Mejia (2 goals), with creative support from Edgar Lastre (3 assists), Yorman Zapata (2 assists), Nicolas Amasifuen (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Garcilaso won 1 times, UCV Moquegua won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:1 from Deportivo Garcilaso's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.2%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Garcilaso 4-2-3-1 / UCV Moquegua 4-4-2
H2H summary: Deportivo Garcilaso wins 1, draws 1, UCV Moquegua wins 1

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 8 3 42:18 24 53
L D L D W
2 26 14 7 5 43:27 16 49
W D W W W
3 26 13 6 7 44:28 16 45
W W L D W
4 26 13 6 7 35:24 11 45
L W W W D
5 26 13 3 10 38:37 1 42
L W W L W
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 26 10 7 9 38:34 4 37
L W W W D
9 26 10 7 9 28:25 3 37
W L W W D
10 26 10 5 11 45:39 6 35
W W L L W
11 26 9 5 12 25:28 -3 32
W L W W W
12 26 9 5 12 34:42 -8 32
W W W L L
13 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
14 26 7 9 10 34:36 -2 30
L D L W L
15 26 7 6 13 40:50 -10 27
W L W L L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17 25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2