ECUADOR LIGA PRO
07.09.2026 00:00
Estadio Alejandro Serrano Aguilar
Referee: G. Araujo
Deportivo Cuenca
Match Timeline
Libertad
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
29'
D. Coronel
Libertad
🟨
42'
Cristhian Benalcazar
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
45'
D. Coronel ↔ Hancel Batalla
Libertad
🔄
56'
Melvin Diaz ↔ David Gonzalez
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
63'
Antony Chere ↔ Enrique Rafael Caicedo Borja
Libertad
67'
Enrique Rafael Caicedo Borja · Assist: Hancel Batalla
Libertad
🟨
69'
Jorge Ordonez
Deportivo Cuenca
🟨
69'
Jackson Rodriguez
Libertad
🔄
70'
Jorge Ordonez ↔ Matías Klimowicz
Deportivo Cuenca
🟨
79'
Edison Vega
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
84'
Carlos Arboleda ↔ Germán Rivero
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
84'
Vilinton German Branda Merlin ↔ S. Castro
Libertad
🔄
84'
Marcos Andres Lopez ↔ Romario Ibarra
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
90+4'
cristhian valencia ↔ Johan Estacio
Libertad

Deportivo Cuenca vs Libertad Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 72.7%
Odds 2.05
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.20
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
72.7%
2.05
BTTS Yes
54.1%
2.00
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.20
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
73.2%
1.80
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
9.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
17.00
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Cuenca Win 27.3%
Draw 22.1%
Libertad Win 50.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Cuenca1
Libertad1.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca
WWDLW
28 GF / 37 GA
Libertad Libertad
WLDWL
30 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
0.93
Average Goals Scored
1.07
1.23
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
14
BTTS Yes
13
11
Over 2.5
12
3.71
Shots on Goal
3.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 30 matches
Libertad Libertad 28 matches
Deportivo Cuenca Statistic Libertad
12 Wins 10
5 Draws 8
13 Losses 10
28 Goals For 30
37 Goals Against 31
0.93 Avg Goals Scored 1.07
1.23 Avg Goals Conceded 1.11
14 BTTS Yes 13
19 Over 1.5 17
11 Over 2.5 12
4 Over 3.5 5
8 Clean Sheets 9
9 Failed To Score 9
3.71 Shots On Goal 3.86
12.86 Total Shots 11.18
4.5 Corners 3.68
50.2% Ball Possession 44.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Libertad having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Libertad. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Libertad look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Deportivo Cuenca Analysis

Deportivo Cuenca approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 11 with 32 points from 27 matches. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 5 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 23:35 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Jorge Ordóñez (5 goals), Matías Klimowicz (3 goals), David González (2 goals), with creative support from David González (2 assists), Germán Rivero (2 assists), Carlos Arboleda (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Libertad Analysis

So far, Libertad have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 37 points from 26 matches. The record of 10 wins, 7 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 29:29 goal balance, points toward very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking threat comes through Vilington Branda (6 goals), Antony Chére (5 goals), Gabriel Cortez (4 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Cortez (4 assists), Ivan Zambrano (2 assists), J. Guisamano (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses points toward a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Cuenca won 3 times, Libertad won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:8 from Deportivo Cuenca's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (77.9%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Cuenca 4-4-2 / Libertad 5-4-1
H2H summary: Deportivo Cuenca wins 3, draws 2, Libertad wins 3

Standings

Liga Pro: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 39
L W D W L
11 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
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