ECUADOR LIGA PRO
12.07.2026 19:15
Alejandro Serrano Aguilar
Referee: Bryan Loayza, Ecuador
Deportivo Cuenca
Match Timeline
Aucas
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
4'
A. Lopez
Aucas
🟨
11'
Mateo Piedra
Deportivo Cuenca
🟨
33'
Bryan García
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
40'
B. Garcia ↔ R. Ibarra
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
46'
A. Lopez ↔ J. Chacon
Deportivo Cuenca
🟨
58'
Stiven Tapiero
Aucas
🔄
65'
S. Porozo ↔ R. Bolanos
Aucas
🔄
69'
L. Mancinelli ↔ M. Diaz
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
69'
G. Rivero ↔ M. Klimowicz
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
72'
M. Maccari ↔ J. Mejia
Deportivo Cuenca
🔄
79'
E. Preciado ↔ T. Serpa
Aucas
🔄
80'
P. Guzman ↔ M. Vera
Aucas
🟨
89'
David González
Deportivo Cuenca
🟨
90'
Patricio Boolsen
Deportivo Cuenca
🟨
90+2'
Ederson Quiñónez
Aucas

Deportivo Cuenca vs Aucas Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 74.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
74.4%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Deportivo Cuenca Win 45.7%
Draw 25.6%
Aucas Win 28.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportivo Cuenca1.05
Aucas1.11
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca
WWDLW
22 GF / 21 GA
Aucas Aucas
WLDWL
21 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.16
Average Goals Scored
1.11
1.11
Average Goals Conceded
0.89
10
BTTS Yes
7
7
Over 2.5
6
4.06
Shots on Goal
4.76

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportivo Cuenca Deportivo Cuenca 19 matches
Aucas Aucas 19 matches
Deportivo Cuenca Statistic Aucas
10 Wins 9
3 Draws 5
6 Losses 5
22 Goals For 21
21 Goals Against 17
1.16 Avg Goals Scored 1.11
1.11 Avg Goals Conceded 0.89
10 BTTS Yes 7
12 Over 1.5 9
7 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 8
3 Failed To Score 6
4.06 Shots On Goal 4.76
12.94 Total Shots 13.65
4.24 Corners 5.53
50.4% Ball Possession 55.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Aucas's more proactive style and Deportivo Cuenca's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Aucas. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Deportivo Cuenca expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Aucas in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Aucas having the stronger overall control.

Deportivo Cuenca Analysis

Deportivo Cuenca approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 27 points after 17 outings. The return of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 18:19, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Jorge Ordóñez (5 goals), Matías Klimowicz (3 goals), David González (2 goals), with creative support from David González (2 assists), Germán Rivero (2 assists), Carlos Arboleda (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

Aucas Analysis

From their first 16 matches, Aucas have collected 26 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. The record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 19:16 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Bruno Miranda (5 goals), Andres Mena (3 goals), Snayder Porozo (3 goals), with creative support from Andres Mena (2 assists), Piero Guzmán (2 assists), Santiago Morales (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Cuenca won 6 times, Aucas won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:16 from Deportivo Cuenca's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (74.4%)
Predicted formations: Deportivo Cuenca 3-4-3 / Aucas 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Deportivo Cuenca wins 6, draws 4, Aucas wins 5

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4
Aucas Away
30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
11 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 36
L W D W L
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs