COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
04.08.2026 23:15
Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro
Referee: Carlos Ortega, Colombia
Deportes Tolima
Match Timeline
Independiente Medellin
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
1'
D. Catano
Independiente Medellin
16'
J. Montano · Assist: Yony Gonzalez
Independiente Medellin
🔄
34'
D. Catano ↔ J. Cordoba
Independiente Medellin
🟨
41'
Homer Martinez
Deportes Tolima
🟨
47'
Jeison Medina
Independiente Medellin
56'
S. Guzman
Deportes Tolima
57'
J. Cordoba · Assist: J. Montano
Independiente Medellin
🟥
60'
Joaquin Varela
Independiente Medellin
🔄
63'
Yony Gonzalez ↔ A. Simarra
Independiente Medellin
🔄
65'
H. E. Martinez Yepez ↔ L. Sanchez
Deportes Tolima
🔄
65'
A. Parra Osorio ↔ J. Hernandez
Deportes Tolima
🔄
65'
J. Mosquera ↔ K. Florez
Deportes Tolima
🔄
66'
C. Arrieta ↔ E. Valencia
Deportes Tolima
🔄
73'
J. Hurtado ↔ J. Valencia
Deportes Tolima
🔄
73'
A. Martegani ↔ B. Perlaza
Independiente Medellin
🔄
73'
J. Montano ↔ H. Palacios
Independiente Medellin
🟨
77'
Sebastián Guzmán
Deportes Tolima
84'
J. Hernandez · Assist: E. Valencia
Deportes Tolima
🟨
90+5'
Baldomero Perlaza
Independiente Medellin

Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
0 agree / 1 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
0 agree / 1 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.8%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Deportes Tolima Win 58.8%
Draw 8.2%
Independiente Medellin Win 33%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportes Tolima1.27
Independiente Medellin1.2
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima
WWDLW
45 GF / 31 GA
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin
WLDWL
45 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
1.41
0.89
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
13
BTTS Yes
22
13
Over 2.5
18
4.46
Shots on Goal
4.4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 35 matches
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 32 matches
Deportes Tolima Statistic Independiente Medellin
16 Wins 14
9 Draws 8
10 Losses 10
45 Goals For 45
31 Goals Against 40
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 1.41
0.89 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
13 BTTS Yes 22
23 Over 1.5 24
13 Over 2.5 18
7 Over 3.5 9
15 Clean Sheets 8
11 Failed To Score 4
4.46 Shots On Goal 4.4
12.14 Total Shots 13.53
4.49 Corners 5.17
56% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Independiente Medellin look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Independiente Medellin.

Deportes Tolima Analysis

Deportes Tolima are currently 6 in the standings with 31 points from 19 matches. The record of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 27:17 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Jorge Hurtado (1 goals), Kelvin Florez (1 goals), with creative support from Jorge Hurtado (1 assists), Junior Hernández (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Independiente Medellin Analysis

So far, Independiente Medellin have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 26 points from 19 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, while the 26:24 goal ratio supports the view of very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Going forward they rely heavily on Hayen Palacios (1 goals), Jhan Mena (1 goals), John Edwin Montaño (1 goals), with creative support from Hayen Palacios (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Deportes Tolima won 4 times, Independiente Medellin won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:21 from Deportes Tolima's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.8%)
Predicted formations: Deportes Tolima 4-2-3-1 / Independiente Medellin 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Deportes Tolima wins 4, draws 6, Independiente Medellin wins 5

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W W L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L D D L D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L D L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W D W D W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L L W D D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L W W D W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W D W D D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
W D D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W D D L D
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D L D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W W L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
L D D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D D W D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D L
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
W L L L D
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W W D D L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
D L W W D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L D L W D
Post season qualification