COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
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Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.8%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Deportes Tolima Win 58.8%
Draw 8.2%
Independiente Medellin Win 33%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportes Tolima1.27
Independiente Medellin1.2
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima
WWDLW
43 GF / 30 GA
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin
WLDWL
44 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.26
Average Goals Scored
1.42
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
12
BTTS Yes
22
12
Over 2.5
18
4.44
Shots on Goal
4.45

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 34 matches
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 31 matches
Deportes Tolima Statistic Independiente Medellin
15 Wins 13
9 Draws 8
10 Losses 10
43 Goals For 44
30 Goals Against 40
1.26 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
12 BTTS Yes 22
22 Over 1.5 24
12 Over 2.5 18
7 Over 3.5 9
15 Clean Sheets 7
11 Failed To Score 4
4.44 Shots On Goal 4.45
12.15 Total Shots 13.59
4.56 Corners 5.24
55.7% Ball Possession 50.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Independiente Medellin look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Independiente Medellin.

Deportes Tolima Analysis

Deportes Tolima are currently 6 in the standings with 31 points from 19 matches. The record of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 27:17 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Jorge Hurtado (1 goals), Kelvin Florez (1 goals), with creative support from Jorge Hurtado (1 assists), Junior Hernández (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Independiente Medellin Analysis

So far, Independiente Medellin have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 26 points from 19 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, while the 26:24 goal ratio supports the view of very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Going forward they rely heavily on Hayen Palacios (1 goals), Jhan Mena (1 goals), John Edwin Montaño (1 goals), with creative support from Hayen Palacios (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Deportes Tolima won 4 times, Independiente Medellin won 4 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:18 from Deportes Tolima's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.8%)
Predicted formations: Deportes Tolima 4-2-3-1 / Independiente Medellin 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Deportes Tolima wins 4, draws 7, Independiente Medellin wins 4
Last matches: Deportes Tolima
26.07.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Junior
2
1
W
27.05.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Universitario
0
0
D
23.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
1
3
L
19.05.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Coquimbo Unido
0
3
L
16.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
0
1
L
13.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto
2
0
W
09.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto
1
0
W
07.05.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Club Nacional
3
0
W
03.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Cali
1
1
D
29.04.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Coquimbo Unido
3
0
W
24.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Millonarios
0
2
L
18.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pereira
2
0
W
14.04.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Club Nacional
1
3
L
11.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto
0
1
L
08.04.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Universitario
0
0
D
05.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Santa Fe
2
2
D
01.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Águilas Doradas
4
1
W
28.03.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Jaguares
3
1
W
23.03.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Chico
1
1
D
19.03.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Fortaleza FC
2
0
W
Last matches: Independiente Medellin
25.07.26
Pri
Independiente Medellin
Deportivo Pasto
3
2
W
27.05.26
CON
Independiente Medellin
Estudiantes L.P.
0
1
L
21.05.26
CON
Independiente Medellin
Cusco
3
2
W
03.05.26
Pri
Independiente Medellin
Águilas Doradas
1
2
L
01.05.26
CON
Independiente Medellin
Cusco
1
0
W
26.04.26
Pri
Independiente Medellin
Fortaleza FC
1
0
W
22.04.26
Pri
Independiente Medellin
Chico
2
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
Independiente Medellin
Alianza Valledupar
1
0
W
17.04.26
CON
Independiente Medellin
Flamengo
1
4
L
12.04.26
Pri
Independiente Medellin
Atletico Nacional
2
3
L
09.04.26
CON
Independiente Medellin
Estudiantes L.P.
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pri
Independiente Medellin
Once Caldas
1
1
D
30.03.26
Pri
Independiente Medellin
America de Cali
2
1
W
23.03.26
Pri
Independiente Medellin
Santa Fe
1
2
L
20.03.26
Pri
Independiente Medellin
Junior
2
0
W
15.03.26
Pri
Independiente Medellin
Jaguares
2
1
W
13.03.26
CON
Independiente Medellin
Juventud
2
1
W
06.03.26
CON
Independiente Medellin
Juventud
1
1
D
01.03.26
Pri
Independiente Medellin
Bucaramanga
1
2
L
25.02.26
CON
Independiente Medellin
Liverpool Montevideo
0
0
D
H2H: Deportes Tolima vs Independiente Medellin
28.01.26
H2H
Independiente Medellin
Deportes Tolima
2
2
D
27.09.25
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
2
3
L
15.06.25
H2H
Independiente Medellin
Deportes Tolima
2
1
L
04.06.25
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
1
3
L
16.05.25
H2H
Independiente Medellin
Deportes Tolima
0
1
W
22.09.24
H2H
Independiente Medellin
Deportes Tolima
0
1
W
10.03.24
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
2
2
D
06.03.24
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
0
0
D
14.09.23
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
1
1
D
01.04.23
H2H
Independiente Medellin
Deportes Tolima
1
1
D
17.08.22
H2H
Independiente Medellin
Deportes Tolima
0
1
W
28.07.22
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
1
3
L
11.07.22
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
1
1
D
12.06.22
H2H
Independiente Medellin
Deportes Tolima
0
1
W
02.06.22
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
0
0
D
Last matches: Deportes Tolima
26.07.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Junior
2
1
W
16.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
0
1
L
09.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto
1
0
W
07.05.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Club Nacional
3
0
W
03.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Cali
1
1
D
29.04.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Coquimbo Unido
3
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pereira
2
0
W
08.04.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Universitario
0
0
D
05.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Santa Fe
2
2
D
01.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Águilas Doradas
4
1
W
28.03.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Jaguares
3
1
W
19.03.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Fortaleza FC
2
0
W
12.03.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
O'Higgins
2
0
W
02.03.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
1
0
W
27.02.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Tachira FC
0
1
L
15.02.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Once Caldas
2
1
W
07.02.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Llaneros
0
1
L
24.01.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Alianza Valledupar
2
0
W
17.12.25
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Junior
0
1
L
08.12.25
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Fortaleza FC
1
0
W
H2H at home: Deportes Tolima
27.09.25
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
2
3
L
04.06.25
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
1
3
L
10.03.24
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
2
2
D
06.03.24
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
0
0
D
14.09.23
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
1
1
D
28.07.22
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
1
3
L
11.07.22
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
1
1
D
02.06.22
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
0
0
D
Last matches: Independiente Medellin
27.05.26
CON
Independiente Medellin
Estudiantes L.P.
0
1
L
21.05.26
CON
Independiente Medellin
Cusco
3
2
W
19.04.26
Pri
Independiente Medellin
Alianza Valledupar
1
0
W
17.04.26
CON
Independiente Medellin
Flamengo
1
4
L
03.04.26
Pri
Independiente Medellin
Once Caldas
1
1
D
23.03.26
Pri
Independiente Medellin
Santa Fe
1
2
L
15.03.26
Pri
Independiente Medellin
Jaguares
2
1
W
06.03.26
CON
Independiente Medellin
Juventud
1
1
D
20.02.26
Pri
Independiente Medellin
Llaneros
2
2
D
18.02.26
CON
Independiente Medellin
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
W
10.02.26
Pri
Independiente Medellin
Cucuta
3
1
W
02.02.26
Pri
Independiente Medellin
Millonarios
0
0
D
24.01.26
Pri
Independiente Medellin
Deportivo Cali
1
3
L
18.01.26
Pri
Independiente Medellin
Deportivo Pasto
0
1
L
10.01.26
Fri
Independiente Medellin
Envigado
1
2
L
04.12.25
Pri
Independiente Medellin
Atletico Nacional
1
2
L
27.11.25
Pri
Independiente Medellin
America de Cali
1
2
L
20.11.25
Pri
Independiente Medellin
Junior
0
1
L
07.11.25
Pri
Independiente Medellin
Deportivo Pereira
4
1
W
26.10.25
Pri
Independiente Medellin
Atletico Nacional
2
5
L
H2H away: Independiente Medellin
27.09.25
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
2
3
W
04.06.25
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
1
3
W
10.03.24
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
2
2
D
06.03.24
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
0
0
D
14.09.23
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
1
1
D
28.07.22
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
1
3
W
11.07.22
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
1
1
D
02.06.22
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
0
0
D

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W L W W W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L L W W D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
L L L L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W L D W L
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
W D L W D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
W L L W W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
L L D W D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
L L L L W
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W D W L D
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
L D W L D
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
W L W W W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
W W D L L
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W L D L W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
W L D L D
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D W L L W
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
L W D L L
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
D D D L L
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W L L W L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
L L D L W
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L L W L D
Post season qualification