COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
01.09.2026 01:05
Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro
Referee: Sebastian Toro Gomez, Colombia
Deportes Tolima
Match Timeline
Cucuta
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
28'
Anderson Angulo
Deportes Tolima
🟨
32'
Luis Sánchez
Deportes Tolima
VAR
38'
Adrián Parra
Deportes Tolima
🟨
45+1'
Cristian Arrieta
Deportes Tolima
🟨
45'
Victor Mejia
Cucuta
🔄
46'
D. Calcaterra ↔ L. Ochoa
Cucuta
47'
L. Sanchez · Assist: K. Florez
Deportes Tolima
🔄
57'
E. M. Duarte Barajas ↔ K. Tamayo
Cucuta
🔄
57'
V. Mejia ↔ J. Ceballos
Cucuta
🔄
66'
H. E. Martinez Yepez ↔ J. Mosquera
Deportes Tolima
🔄
66'
L. Sanchez ↔ E. Valencia
Deportes Tolima
69'
K. Florez · Assist: S. Guzman
Deportes Tolima
🔄
72'
Y. Abonia ↔ G. Torres
Cucuta
🔄
79'
K. Florez ↔ J. Hurtado
Deportes Tolima
🔄
79'
J. Agudelo ↔ J. Diaz
Cucuta
🟨
81'
Jherson Mosquera
Deportes Tolima
🟨
83'
Gustavo Torres
Cucuta
🟨
86'
Jherson Mosquera
Deportes Tolima
🟥
86'
Jherson Mosquera
Deportes Tolima
🔄
90+6'
↔ S. Aguayo
Deportes Tolima
90'
G. Torres · Assist: K. Tamayo
Cucuta

Deportes Tolima vs Cucuta Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 73.9%
Odds 1.40
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.79
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
73.9%
1.40
BTTS Yes
71.2%
2.00
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
1.79
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.83
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.05
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Deportes Tolima Win 73.9%
Draw 5.7%
Cucuta Win 20.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Deportes Tolima1.44
Cucuta1.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima
WWDLW
50 GF / 39 GA
Cucuta Cucuta
WLDWL
28 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
1.25
Average Goals Scored
1.08
0.98
Average Goals Conceded
1.73
16
BTTS Yes
16
16
Over 2.5
11
4.6
Shots on Goal
3.44

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 40 matches
Cucuta Cucuta 26 matches
Deportes Tolima Statistic Cucuta
17 Wins 5
10 Draws 10
13 Losses 11
50 Goals For 28
39 Goals Against 45
1.25 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
0.98 Avg Goals Conceded 1.73
16 BTTS Yes 16
26 Over 1.5 22
16 Over 2.5 11
9 Over 3.5 9
16 Clean Sheets 5
13 Failed To Score 6
4.6 Shots On Goal 3.44
12.58 Total Shots 8.88
4.68 Corners 3.68
56.7% Ball Possession 43.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Deportes Tolima's more proactive style and Cucuta's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Deportes Tolima arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 31 points compared to Cucuta in 19 on 16, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cucuta.

Deportes Tolima Analysis

From their first 19 matches, Deportes Tolima have collected 31 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Their overall return of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 27:17 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Jorge Hurtado (2 goals), Junior Hernández (1 goals), Sebastián Guzmán (1 goals), with creative support from Jorge Hurtado (1 assists), Junior Hernández (1 assists), Adrián Parra (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Cucuta Analysis

Cucuta approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 19 with 16 points from 19 matches. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 7 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 22:35 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Jaime Peralta (1 goals), Lucas Ríos (1 goals), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Deportes Tolima won 4 times, Cucuta won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:5 from Deportes Tolima's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.43 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.3%)
Predicted formations: Deportes Tolima 4-2-3-1 / Cucuta 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Deportes Tolima wins 4, draws 1, Cucuta wins 2

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W W L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L D D L D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L D L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W D W D W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L L W D D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L W W D W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W D W D D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
W D D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W D D L D
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D L D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W W L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
L D D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D D W D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D L
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
W L L L D
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W W D D L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
D L W W D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L D L W D
Post season qualification