BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Governador Magalhães Pinto
Referee: L. Casagrande
Cruzeiro
Match Timeline
Mirassol
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Gerson
Cruzeiro
12'
Joao Marcelo · Assist: Bruno Rodrigues
Cruzeiro
VAR
24'
Reinaldo
Mirassol
27'
Reinaldo
Mirassol
🟨
48'
Kaique Kenji
Cruzeiro
🔄
59'
Ze Lucas ↔ Lucas Silva
Cruzeiro
🔄
59'
Kenji ↔ Wesley
Cruzeiro
🔄
59'
K. Arroyo ↔ J. Costa
Cruzeiro
🔄
59'
Denilson ↔ Shaylon
Mirassol
🔄
67'
Matheus Pereira ↔ Kaio Jorge
Cruzeiro
🟨
68'
Elias
Mirassol
🔄
69'
Eduardo ↔ Edson Carioca
Mirassol
🔄
69'
Bruno Santos ↔ Andre Luis
Mirassol
76'
Kaio Jorge · Assist: Fagner
Cruzeiro
🔄
80'
Wallisson ↔ Alesson
Mirassol
🔄
80'
Elias ↔ Igor Formiga
Mirassol
84'
Wesley · Assist: L. Villalba
Cruzeiro
🟨
85'
Wesley
Cruzeiro
🟨
90+4'
Shaylon
Mirassol
🔄
90'
L. Villalba ↔ G. Rojas
Cruzeiro

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.3%
-
BTTS Yes
75%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Cruzeiro Win 72.3%
Draw 5.2%
Mirassol Win 22.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cruzeiro1.26
Mirassol1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
WWDLW
38 GF / 36 GA
Mirassol Mirassol
WLDWL
30 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.31
Average Goals Scored
1.15
1.24
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
16
BTTS Yes
14
15
Over 2.5
12
4.59
Shots on Goal
4.23

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 29 matches
Mirassol Mirassol 26 matches
Cruzeiro Statistic Mirassol
12 Wins 10
8 Draws 5
9 Losses 11
38 Goals For 30
36 Goals Against 31
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 1.15
1.24 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
16 BTTS Yes 14
22 Over 1.5 17
15 Over 2.5 12
7 Over 3.5 5
10 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 8
4.59 Shots On Goal 4.23
13.93 Total Shots 12.73
4.89 Corners 5.31
55.6% Ball Possession 50.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Mirassol. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Cruzeiro Analysis

Cruzeiro are currently 7 in the standings with 30 points from 21 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, while the 27:30 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Matheus Pereira (5 goals), Kaio Jorge (5 goals), Christian (4 goals), with creative support from Christian (3 assists), Lucas Romero (3 assists), Fagner (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Mirassol Analysis

With 23 points from 20 games and a place of 14, Mirassol still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 9 defeats with a 23:27 goal balance points toward good form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Igor Formiga (4 goals), Negueba (2 goals), Edson Carioca (2 goals), with creative support from Alesson (4 assists), Reinaldo (3 assists), Igor Formiga (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Cruzeiro won 2 times, Mirassol won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:5 from Cruzeiro's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
Predicted formations: Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1 / Mirassol 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Cruzeiro 5, Mirassol 3
H2H summary: Cruzeiro wins 2, draws 2, Mirassol wins 0
Stats
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
Mirassol Mirassol
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
5
4 Corner Kicks 1
14 Fouls 18
0 Offsides 2
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Goal 4
6 Shots off Goal 4
2 Blocked Shots 5
8 Shots insidebox 8
3 Shots outsidebox 5
3 Goalkeeper Saves 0
374 Total passes 379
313 Passes accurate 321
0.68 expected_goals 1.31
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Cruzeiro
Formation
Mirassol
Otavio Costa
Otavio Costa
Fagner
🎯
Fagner
Joao Marcelo
Joao Marcelo
Jonathan Jesus
Jonathan Jesus
L. Villalba
🎯
L. Villalba
L. Romero
L. Romero
Ze Lucas
Ze Lucas
K. Arroyo
K. Arroyo
Matheus Pereira
Matheus Pereira
Kenji
Kenji
Bruno Rodrigues
🎯
Bruno Rodrigues
Thomazella
Thomazella
Elias
Elias
Joao Victor
Joao Victor
Gabriel Knesowitsch
Gabriel Knesowitsch
Reinaldo
Reinaldo
Wallisson
Wallisson
G. Cazonatti
G. Cazonatti
Denilson
Denilson
Eduardo
Eduardo
Bruno Santos
Bruno Santos
Fernandinho
Fernandinho
Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
81
Otavio Costa
G
23
Fagner
🎯 76'
D
43
Joao Marcelo
⚽ 12'
D
34
Jonathan Jesus
D
25
L. Villalba
🎯 84' ↓ 90'
D
29
L. Romero
M
5
Ze Lucas
↓ 59'
M
99
K. Arroyo
↓ 59'
M
10
Matheus Pereira
↓ 67'
M
70
Kenji
↓ 59' 🟨 48'
M
9
Bruno Rodrigues
🎯 12'
F
Substitutes
51
V. Lamounier
G
27
G. Rojas
↑ 90'
D
2
Kaua Moraes
D
16
Lucas Silva
↑ 59'
M
8
Gerson
🟨 -5'
M
12
William Furtado
D
15
Fabricio Bruno
D
19
Kaio Jorge
⚽ 76' ↑ 67'
F
97
L. Rodriguez
F
20
Wesley
⚽ 84' ↑ 59' 🟨 85'
F
67
J. Costa
↑ 59'
F
38
Felipe Morais
M
Mirassol 4-3-1-2
Starting XI
90
Thomazella
G
18
Elias
↓ 80' 🟨 68'
D
34
Joao Victor
D
44
Gabriel Knesowitsch
D
6
Reinaldo
⚽ 27'
D
80
Wallisson
↓ 80'
M
55
G. Cazonatti
M
8
Denilson
↓ 59'
M
33
Eduardo
↓ 69'
M
30
Bruno Santos
↓ 69'
F
17
Fernandinho
F
Substitutes
23
Alex Muralha
G
25
Neto Moura
77
Alesson
↑ 80'
F
95
Edson Carioca
↑ 69'
F
12
Victor Luis
D
10
Chico Kim
M
19
Gustavo Silva
M
2
Lucas Oliveira
D
7
Shaylon
↑ 59' 🟨 90+4'
M
9
Andre Luis
↑ 69'
F
3
Willian Machado
D
32
Igor Formiga
↑ 80'
D
Last matches: Cruzeiro
20.08.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
1
2
L
16.08.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Corinthians
2
1
W
13.08.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
1
1
D
31.07.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Coritiba
1
0
W
26.07.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Botafogo
0
1
L
23.07.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Internacional
2
1
W
12.07.26
Fri
Cruzeiro
Gremio
1
3
L
04.07.26
Fri
Cruzeiro
Defensor Sporting
2
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Fluminense
1
1
D
29.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Barcelona SC
4
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
20.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Palmeiras
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Bahia
2
1
W
07.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
0
0
D
03.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
1
3
L
29.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Remo
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Gremio
2
0
W
15.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
1
2
L
Last matches: Mirassol
20.08.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
16.08.26
Ser
Mirassol
Flamengo
1
5
L
13.08.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
29.07.26
Ser
Mirassol
Remo
2
1
W
25.07.26
Ser
Mirassol
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
17.07.26
Ser
Mirassol
Gremio
2
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Atletico Paranaense
0
1
L
26.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Lanus
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Fluminense
1
0
W
20.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Always Ready
2
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Atletico-MG
1
3
L
10.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Chapecoense-sc
1
1
D
07.05.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
2
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Corinthians
2
1
W
29.04.26
CON
Mirassol
Always Ready
2
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Sao Paulo
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Internacional
2
1
W
15.04.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Bahia
1
2
L
08.04.26
CON
Mirassol
Lanus
1
0
W
H2H: Cruzeiro vs Mirassol
09.08.26
H2H
Cruzeiro
Mirassol
3
1
W
11.02.26
H2H
Mirassol
Cruzeiro
2
2
D
18.08.25
H2H
Mirassol
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
29.03.25
H2H
Cruzeiro
Mirassol
2
1
W
Last matches: Cruzeiro
13.08.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Flamengo
1
1
D
26.07.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Botafogo
0
1
L
04.07.26
Fri
Cruzeiro
Defensor Sporting
2
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Fluminense
1
1
D
29.05.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Barcelona SC
4
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Atletico-MG
1
3
L
29.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
Boca Juniors
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Gremio
2
0
W
15.04.26
CON
Cruzeiro
U. Catolica
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
RB Bragantino
2
1
W
01.04.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Vitoria
3
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Santos
0
0
D
15.03.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Vasco DA Gama
3
3
D
25.02.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Corinthians
1
1
D
06.02.26
Ser
Cruzeiro
Coritiba
1
2
L
H2H at home: Cruzeiro
09.08.26
H2H
Cruzeiro
Mirassol
3
1
W
29.03.25
H2H
Cruzeiro
Mirassol
2
1
W
Last matches: Mirassol
20.08.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
25.07.26
Ser
Mirassol
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Atletico Paranaense
0
1
L
26.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Lanus
0
1
L
20.05.26
CON
Mirassol
Always Ready
2
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Mirassol
Atletico-MG
1
3
L
26.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Sao Paulo
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Internacional
2
1
W
15.04.26
CON
Mirassol
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Mirassol
Botafogo
2
3
L
22.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Vitoria
0
1
L
15.03.26
Ser
Mirassol
Palmeiras
0
1
L
04.02.26
Ser
Mirassol
Remo
2
2
D
H2H away: Mirassol
09.08.26
H2H
Cruzeiro
Mirassol
3
1
L
29.03.25
H2H
Cruzeiro
Mirassol
2
1
L

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 14 6 3 40:19 21 48
L D W L W
2 22 13 6 3 44:19 25 45
W W D D W
3 23 12 5 6 31:20 11 41
D W D W W
4 23 10 8 5 34:28 6 38
W D D D D
5 23 10 6 7 32:32 0 36
W W W L W
6 23 8 10 5 32:28 4 34
D D D D D
7 22 9 5 8 27:23 4 32
D L D D W
8 22 9 5 8 30:27 3 32
W D W D W
9 23 8 8 7 25:22 3 32
L W D D W
10 23 8 7 8 28:30 -2 31
D W L D L
11 22 8 6 8 35:34 1 30
L D W D W
12 23 8 5 10 23:33 -10 29
W L L L D
13 22 7 6 9 27:26 1 27
D L D L L
14 22 6 7 9 32:35 -3 25
W L D L W
15 22 6 7 9 24:30 -6 25
L W D L L
16 23 5 9 9 24:28 -4 24
D D D L L
17 22 6 5 11 25:35 -10 23
L L W D W
18 23 5 8 10 27:37 -10 23
D D L W L
19 22 5 7 10 23:34 -11 22
L D D L L
20 22 1 8 13 23:46 -23 11
D L D L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Cruzeiro 5 missing
-
Cassio
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Matheus Henrique
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
L. Sinisterra
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
N. Villarreal
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
Gabriel Pec
Missing Fixture Broken Leg
OUT
Mirassol 3 missing
-
Walter
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
Jose Aldo
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
Negueba
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT