BRAZIL SERIE A
31.05.2026 23:30
Governador Magalhaes Pinto
Referee: Lucas Casagrande
Cruzeiro
Match Timeline
Fluminense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
35'
Lucas Romero
Cruzeiro
43'
John Kennedy
Fluminense
🔄
46'
L. Romero ↔ Matheus Henrique
Cruzeiro
🔄
46'
Guilherme Arana ↔ Rene
Fluminense
🔄
56'
Fagner ↔ Bruno Rodrigues
Cruzeiro
🔄
56'
K. Arroyo ↔ Kenji
Cruzeiro
🔄
57'
N. Villarreal ↔ L. Sinisterra
Cruzeiro
🔄
67'
Y. Soteldo ↔ L. Acosta
Fluminense
🔄
74'
J. Savarino ↔ Samuel Xavier
Fluminense
🔄
74'
John Kennedy ↔ G. Cano
Fluminense
🔄
75'
F. Bernal ↔ Hercules
Fluminense
75'
Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
🟨
82'
Julián Millán
Fluminense
🟨
86'
Samuel Xavier
Fluminense
🟨
87'
Fabrício Bruno
Cruzeiro
🔄
89'
Christian ↔ Chico
Cruzeiro

Cruzeiro vs Fluminense Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 68.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 56.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.3%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
68.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
56.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Cruzeiro Win 58.3%
Draw 8.7%
Fluminense Win 33%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cruzeiro1.31
Fluminense1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
WWDLW
31 GF / 30 GA
Fluminense Fluminense
WLDWL
34 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
1.48
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
1.26
13
BTTS Yes
16
13
Over 2.5
13
4.57
Shots on Goal
5.57

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 23 matches
Fluminense Fluminense 23 matches
Cruzeiro Statistic Fluminense
9 Wins 11
7 Draws 5
7 Losses 7
31 Goals For 34
30 Goals Against 29
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 1.48
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 1.26
13 BTTS Yes 16
18 Over 1.5 19
13 Over 2.5 13
6 Over 3.5 6
8 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 4
4.57 Shots On Goal 5.57
13.39 Total Shots 14.87
4.74 Corners 4.96
55.4% Ball Possession 61.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Fluminense's more proactive style and Cruzeiro's more cautious structure. Fluminense seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Fluminense. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Cruzeiro Analysis

Cruzeiro are currently 10 in the standings with 23 points from 17 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, while the 23:27 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Christian (5 goals), Kaio Jorge (4 goals), N. Villarreal (3 goals), with creative support from Christian (3 assists), L. Romero (3 assists), Keny Arroyo (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with Cassio, Kaua Prates, William Furtado unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Fluminense Analysis

Fluminense arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 30 points after 17 matches. The record of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 27:22 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through John Kennedy (8 goals), Agustín Canobbio (4 goals), Hércules (3 goals), with creative support from L. Acosta (4 assists), J. Savarino (2 assists), Guga (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with J. Freytes, Ignacio, Alisson, Nonato unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Cruzeiro won 3 times, Fluminense won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:19 from Cruzeiro's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.3%)
Predicted formations: Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1 / Fluminense 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Cruzeiro 3, Fluminense 8
H2H summary: Cruzeiro wins 3, draws 5, Fluminense wins 7

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 17 6 4 53:22 31 57
W W W W L
2 27 16 8 3 47:21 26 56
W D D W L
3 27 13 7 7 41:31 10 46
D L D W D
4 27 12 10 5 42:33 9 46
W W W W D
5 27 12 9 6 41:35 6 45
L W D W W
6 27 12 6 9 39:39 0 42
L W L W W
7 26 11 6 9 35:31 4 39
W L W D W
8 27 10 8 9 37:38 -1 38
D L W W D
9 26 10 6 10 32:29 3 36
D L L W D
10 26 9 8 9 39:39 0 35
W W W D W
11 26 9 6 11 31:30 1 33
L W W L D
12 27 9 6 12 27:39 -12 33
D W L L W
13 27 8 8 11 28:29 -1 32
L L L L L
14 26 8 8 10 38:41 -3 32
D D L L L
15 27 7 8 12 31:42 -11 29
D W L D D
16 26 7 7 12 28:35 -7 28
L L W L L
17 26 7 7 12 29:41 -12 28
W L W L L
18 27 6 10 11 30:35 -5 28
W L L D D
19 27 5 8 14 31:45 -14 23
L L L L D
20 26 3 8 15 28:52 -24 17
L W L W D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B