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18.11.2026 22:30
Referee: B. Machado

Coritiba vs Santos Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 66.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
66.8%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
65.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Coritiba Win 33.3%
Draw 24.3%
Santos Win 42.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Coritiba1.27
Santos1.51
Recent Form (Last 5)
Coritiba Coritiba
L W L L D
3 GF / 4 GA
Santos Santos
L D D W L
5 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
1.51
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
16
BTTS Yes
25
16
Over 2.5
23
3.38
Shots on Goal
4.35

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Coritiba Coritiba 34 matches
Santos Santos 35 matches
Coritiba Statistic Santos
11 Wins 13
9 Draws 11
14 Losses 11
40 Goals For 53
51 Goals Against 49
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 1.51
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
16 BTTS Yes 25
24 Over 1.5 31
16 Over 2.5 23
10 Over 3.5 10
7 Clean Sheets 8
12 Failed To Score 4
3.38 Shots On Goal 4.35
11.35 Total Shots 13.88
3.85 Corners 5.38
40.4% Ball Possession 50.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Santos's more proactive style and Coritiba's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Santos. Coritiba have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Coritiba Analysis

With 42 points from 34 games and a place of 12, Coritiba still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 11 wins, 9 draws, and 14 defeats with a 40:51 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Breno Lopes (8 goals), Pedro Rocha (7 goals), Joaquín Lavega (5 goals), with creative support from Josué (10 assists), Tinga (2 assists), Lucas Ronier (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Santos Analysis

From their first 34 matches, Santos have collected 47 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. The record of 12 wins, 11 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 50:49 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Gabriel Barbosa (15 goals), Neymar (8 goals), Benjamín Rollheiser (4 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Barbosa (4 assists), Benjamín Rollheiser (3 assists), Gabriel Bontempo (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Coritiba won 2 times, Santos won 10 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:22 from Coritiba's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (75.7%)
Predicted formations: Coritiba 4-2-3-1 / Santos 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Coritiba wins 2, draws 3, Santos wins 10

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 23 7 4 71:29 42 76
W W W W W
2 34 21 10 3 62:23 39 73
W D W W W
3 34 18 6 10 55:48 7 60
W W W W L
4 34 16 9 9 55:42 13 57
W W L L L
5 34 15 9 10 51:43 8 54
L L D L W
6 34 14 11 9 50:45 5 53
L W D L W
7 35 14 9 12 44:40 4 51
D L L L W
8 34 13 8 13 44:39 5 47
W W L D W
9 34 12 11 11 50:49 1 47
L D D W L
10 34 12 8 14 39:39 0 44
D L D W W
11 34 12 8 14 45:50 -5 44
W W L W L
12 34 11 9 14 46:53 -7 42
W L L W D
13 34 11 9 14 40:51 -11 42
L W L L D
14 35 10 11 14 39:48 -9 41
D W L D W
15 34 10 8 16 35:51 -16 38
L L D D L
16 34 9 11 14 38:42 -4 38
W L W L D
17 34 9 10 15 36:42 -6 37
D W L D L
18 34 9 10 15 38:47 -9 37
L W W L D
19 34 6 11 17 37:57 -20 29
L W L D D
20 34 4 9 21 33:70 -37 21
L L L W L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B