BRAZIL SERIE A
06.09.2026 14:00
Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira
Referee: Andre Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento, Brazil
Coritiba
Match Timeline
Mirassol
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
27'
Denilson Alves Borges
Mirassol
🟨
27'
Daniel Borges
Mirassol
🟨
34'
João Victor Carroll Santana
Mirassol
🟨
34'
Thiago Santos
Coritiba
🔄
58'
Thiago Santos ↔ Vitor Gonçalves Tissi
Coritiba
🔄
59'
Breno Lopes ↔ Paulo Roberto
Coritiba
🔄
59'
Jacy ↔ Maicon
Coritiba
61'
Pedro Rocha · Assist: Fabinho
Coritiba
🟨
63'
JP Chermont
Coritiba
64'
Gustavo Henric da Silva · Assist: Igor Formiga
Mirassol
🔄
73'
JP Chermont ↔ Felipe Jonatan
Coritiba
🔄
76'
Gustavo Henric da Silva ↔ Fernandinho
Mirassol
🔄
77'
Alesson dos Santos Batista ↔ Shaylon Kallyson Cardozo
Mirassol
🔄
79'
Fabinho ↔ Josué
Coritiba
🔄
82'
Denilson Alves Borges ↔ Chico Kim
Mirassol
🔄
82'
Wallisson ↔ Gustavo Cazonatti
Mirassol
84'
Bruno Santos de Oliveira · Assist: Igor Formiga
Mirassol
🔄
87'
Carlos Eduardo de Oliveira Alve ↔ Gabriel Knesowitsch
Mirassol
🟨
90+2'
Shaylon Kallyson Cardozo
Mirassol
VAR
90+8'
Rodrigo Moledo
Coritiba

Coritiba vs Mirassol Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74.5%
Odds 2.45
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.4%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.20
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74.5%
2.45
BTTS Yes
67.4%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.20
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
71.7%
1.35
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Coritiba Win 74.5%
Draw 5.8%
Mirassol Win 19.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Coritiba1.32
Mirassol1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
Coritiba Coritiba
WWDLW
33 GF / 33 GA
Mirassol Mirassol
WLDWL
35 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
1.32
Average Goals Scored
1.06
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
13
BTTS Yes
19
12
Over 2.5
14
3.32
Shots on Goal
4.09

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Coritiba Coritiba 25 matches
Mirassol Mirassol 33 matches
Coritiba Statistic Mirassol
10 Wins 10
7 Draws 9
8 Losses 14
33 Goals For 35
33 Goals Against 44
1.32 Avg Goals Scored 1.06
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
13 BTTS Yes 19
18 Over 1.5 23
12 Over 2.5 14
7 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 5
7 Failed To Score 10
3.32 Shots On Goal 4.09
10.8 Total Shots 12.52
3.48 Corners 5.06
39.4% Ball Possession 49.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Coritiba arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 9 with 34 points compared to Mirassol in 17 on 24, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Mirassol. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Coritiba expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Mirassol in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mirassol having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Coritiba Analysis

Coritiba are currently 9 in the standings with 34 points from 24 matches. Their overall return of 9 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 30:31 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Breno Lopes (8 goals), Joaquín Lavega (5 goals), Pedro Rocha (4 goals), with creative support from Josué (8 assists), Lucas Ronier (2 assists), Tinga (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Mirassol Analysis

Mirassol sit 17 with 24 points after 23 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 6 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 26:36 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Igor Formiga (4 goals), João Victor (2 goals), Negueba (2 goals), with creative support from Reinaldo (4 assists), Alesson (4 assists), Igor Formiga (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Coritiba won 1 times, Mirassol won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:5 from Coritiba's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.2%)
Predicted formations: Coritiba 4-2-3-1 / Mirassol 4-3-3
Missing players: Coritiba 7, Mirassol 4
H2H summary: Coritiba wins 1, draws 0, Mirassol wins 2

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 16 8 3 47:21 26 56
W D D W L
2 26 16 6 4 51:21 30 54
W W W L W
3 27 13 7 7 41:31 10 46
D L D W D
4 27 12 9 6 41:35 6 45
L W D W W
5 26 11 10 5 40:32 8 43
W W W D D
6 27 12 6 9 39:39 0 42
L W L W W
7 26 11 6 9 35:31 4 39
W L W D W
8 27 10 8 9 37:38 -1 38
D L W W D
9 26 10 6 10 32:29 3 36
D L L W D
10 26 9 8 9 39:39 0 35
W W W D W
11 26 9 6 11 31:30 1 33
L W W L D
12 27 9 6 12 27:39 -12 33
D W L L W
13 26 8 8 10 27:27 0 32
L L L L W
14 26 8 8 10 38:41 -3 32
D D L L L
15 27 7 8 12 31:42 -11 29
D W L D D
16 26 7 7 12 28:35 -7 28
L L W L L
17 26 7 7 12 29:41 -12 28
W L W L L
18 27 6 10 11 30:35 -5 28
W L L D D
19 26 5 8 13 30:43 -13 23
L L L D D
20 26 3 8 15 28:52 -24 17
L W L W D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B