BRAZIL SERIE A
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Referee: A. Daronco

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 67.9%
Odds 1.36
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds 1.49
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
67.9%
1.36
BTTS Yes
54.1%
2.10
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
65.5%
1.49
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
76.8%
1.25
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
4.00
Correct Score 1-1
-
6.00
Probability Distribution
Coritiba Win 32.1%
Draw 22.5%
Corinthians Win 45.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Coritiba1.07
Corinthians1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
Coritiba Coritiba
WWDLW
28 GF / 30 GA
Corinthians Corinthians
WLDWL
35 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.22
Average Goals Scored
1.09
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
0.84
11
BTTS Yes
14
10
Over 2.5
8
3.22
Shots on Goal
3.84

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Coritiba Coritiba 23 matches
Corinthians Corinthians 32 matches
Coritiba Statistic Corinthians
8 Wins 12
7 Draws 12
8 Losses 8
28 Goals For 35
30 Goals Against 27
1.22 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 0.84
11 BTTS Yes 14
16 Over 1.5 22
10 Over 2.5 8
6 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 15
7 Failed To Score 8
3.22 Shots On Goal 3.84
10.39 Total Shots 11.65
3.3 Corners 4.32
38.2% Ball Possession 55.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Corinthians's more proactive style and Coritiba's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Coritiba have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Corinthians. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Coritiba Analysis

Coritiba sit 10 with 30 points after 22 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 27:29 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Breno Lopes (8 goals), Joaquín Lavega (5 goals), Pedro Rocha (4 goals), with creative support from Josué (8 assists), Lucas Ronier (2 assists), Tinga (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Corinthians Analysis

Corinthians are currently 8 in the standings with 32 points from 22 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 8 draws, and 6 losses, while the 24:20 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Rodrigo Garro (3 goals), Yuri Alberto (3 goals), André Luiz (3 goals), with creative support from Rodrigo Garro (6 assists), Yuri Alberto (2 assists), André Luiz (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Coritiba won 1 times, Corinthians won 8 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:25 from Coritiba's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (77.5%)
Predicted formations: Coritiba 4-2-3-1 / Corinthians 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Coritiba wins 1, draws 6, Corinthians wins 8
Last matches: Coritiba
16.08.26
Ser
Coritiba
Sao Paulo
1
1
D
08.08.26
Ser
Coritiba
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
31.07.26
Ser
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
0
1
L
26.07.26
Ser
Coritiba
RB Bragantino
0
0
D
22.07.26
Ser
Coritiba
Palmeiras
1
3
L
30.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Flamengo
0
3
L
25.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Bahia
3
2
W
17.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Santos
3
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Internacional
2
2
D
02.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Vitoria
1
4
L
26.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Gremio
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
2
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Botafogo
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Fluminense
1
1
D
01.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Atletico Paranaense
0
2
L
18.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Mirassol
1
0
W
15.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Remo
1
0
W
12.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Corinthians
2
0
W
25.02.26
Ser
Coritiba
Sao Paulo
0
1
L
Last matches: Corinthians
21.08.26
CON
Corinthians
Rosario Central
1
0
W
16.08.26
Ser
Corinthians
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
14.08.26
CON
Corinthians
Rosario Central
0
0
D
09.08.26
Ser
Corinthians
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
30.07.26
Ser
Corinthians
Atletico Paranaense
0
0
D
26.07.26
Ser
Corinthians
Bahia
1
1
D
23.07.26
Ser
Corinthians
Remo
3
0
W
12.07.26
Fri
Corinthians
Cascavel
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Corinthians
Gremio
3
1
W
28.05.26
CON
Corinthians
Platense
0
2
L
24.05.26
Ser
Corinthians
Atletico-MG
1
0
W
22.05.26
CON
Corinthians
Penarol
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Corinthians
Botafogo
1
3
L
10.05.26
Ser
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
3
2
W
07.05.26
CON
Corinthians
Santa Fe
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Corinthians
Mirassol
1
2
L
01.05.26
CON
Corinthians
Penarol
2
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Corinthians
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Corinthians
Vitoria
0
0
D
16.04.26
CON
Corinthians
Santa Fe
2
0
W
H2H: Coritiba vs Corinthians
12.03.26
H2H
Corinthians
Coritiba
0
2
W
07.12.23
H2H
Coritiba
Corinthians
0
2
L
13.08.23
H2H
Corinthians
Coritiba
3
1
L
08.11.22
H2H
Coritiba
Corinthians
2
2
D
21.07.22
H2H
Corinthians
Coritiba
3
1
L
26.11.20
H2H
Coritiba
Corinthians
0
1
L
20.08.20
H2H
Corinthians
Coritiba
3
1
L
12.10.17
H2H
Corinthians
Coritiba
3
1
L
18.06.17
H2H
Coritiba
Corinthians
0
0
D
15.09.16
H2H
Coritiba
Corinthians
1
1
D
04.06.16
H2H
Corinthians
Coritiba
2
1
L
07.11.15
H2H
Corinthians
Coritiba
2
1
L
26.07.15
H2H
Coritiba
Corinthians
1
1
D
01.11.14
H2H
Corinthians
Coritiba
2
2
D
03.08.14
H2H
Coritiba
Corinthians
0
0
D
Last matches: Coritiba
08.08.26
Ser
Coritiba
Chapecoense-sc
2
1
W
31.07.26
Ser
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
0
1
L
22.07.26
Ser
Coritiba
Palmeiras
1
3
L
25.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Bahia
3
2
W
09.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Internacional
2
2
D
19.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
2
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Fluminense
1
1
D
01.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
15.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Remo
1
0
W
25.02.26
Ser
Coritiba
Sao Paulo
0
1
L
28.01.26
Ser
Coritiba
RB Bragantino
0
1
L
H2H at home: Coritiba
07.12.23
H2H
Coritiba
Corinthians
0
2
L
08.11.22
H2H
Coritiba
Corinthians
2
2
D
26.11.20
H2H
Coritiba
Corinthians
0
1
L
18.06.17
H2H
Coritiba
Corinthians
0
0
D
15.09.16
H2H
Coritiba
Corinthians
1
1
D
26.07.15
H2H
Coritiba
Corinthians
1
1
D
03.08.14
H2H
Coritiba
Corinthians
0
0
D
Last matches: Corinthians
14.08.26
CON
Corinthians
Rosario Central
0
0
D
09.08.26
Ser
Corinthians
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
26.07.26
Ser
Corinthians
Bahia
1
1
D
12.07.26
Fri
Corinthians
Cascavel
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Corinthians
Gremio
3
1
W
22.05.26
CON
Corinthians
Penarol
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Corinthians
Botafogo
1
3
L
07.05.26
CON
Corinthians
Santa Fe
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Corinthians
Mirassol
1
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Corinthians
Vitoria
0
0
D
10.04.26
CON
Corinthians
Platense
2
0
W
02.04.26
Ser
Corinthians
Fluminense
1
3
L
20.03.26
Ser
Corinthians
Chapecoense-sc
0
0
D
15.03.26
Ser
Corinthians
Santos
1
1
D
25.02.26
Ser
Corinthians
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
19.02.26
Ser
Corinthians
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
H2H away: Corinthians
07.12.23
H2H
Coritiba
Corinthians
0
2
W
08.11.22
H2H
Coritiba
Corinthians
2
2
D
26.11.20
H2H
Coritiba
Corinthians
0
1
W
18.06.17
H2H
Coritiba
Corinthians
0
0
D
15.09.16
H2H
Coritiba
Corinthians
1
1
D
26.07.15
H2H
Coritiba
Corinthians
1
1
D
03.08.14
H2H
Coritiba
Corinthians
0
0
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Home 3.22
Draw 2.96
Away 2.51
FIRST HALF WINNER
Home 4.04
Draw 1.97
Away 3.32
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.53
Under 1.5 2.57
Over 1.75 1.68
Under 1.75 2.23
Over 2.0 1.97
Under 2.0 1.88
Over 2.25 2.33
Under 2.25 1.63
Over 2.5 2.68
Under 2.5 1.49
Over 3.5 5.20
Under 3.5 1.17
Over 0.5 1.12
Under 0.5 6.70
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Home 3.10
Draw 3.00
Away 2.50
FIRST HALF WINNER
Home 4.00
Draw 1.91
Away 3.25
SECOND HALF WINNER
Home 3.40
Draw 2.10
Away 2.88
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.53
Under 1.5 2.50
Over 2.5 2.60
Under 2.5 1.48
Over 3.5 5.00
Under 3.5 1.17
Over 0.5 1.11
Under 0.5 6.50
Over 4.5 11.00
Under 4.5 1.05
Over 5.5 26.00
Under 5.5 1.01
Over 6.5 51.00
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Home 3.19
Draw 3.02
Away 2.52
FIRST HALF WINNER
Home 3.98
Draw 1.85
Away 3.20
SECOND HALF WINNER
Home 3.52
Draw 2.15
Away 2.82
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.57
Under 1.5 2.48
Over 1.75 1.64
Under 1.75 2.08
Over 2.0 1.88
Under 2.0 1.79
Over 2.25 2.30
Under 2.25 1.65
Over 2.5 2.59
Under 2.5 1.48
Over 2.75 3.03
Under 2.75 1.31
Over 3.5 4.75
Under 3.5 1.12
Over 0.5 1.07
Under 0.5 5.80
Over 0.75 1.09
Under 0.75 5.24
Over 1.0 1.12
Under 1.0 4.65
Over 1.25 1.33
Under 1.25 3.45
Over 3.0 4.05
Under 3.0 1.18
Over 4.5 9.30
Under 4.5 1.00
Over 3.25 4.38
Under 3.25 1.14
Over 3.75 6.00
Under 3.75 1.06
Over 4.0 8.70
Under 4.0 1.01
Over 5.5 20.00
Under 5.5 1.01
Over 6.5 50.00
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Home 2.90
Draw 3.00
Away 2.50
FIRST HALF WINNER
Home 3.60
Draw 1.97
Away 3.25
SECOND HALF WINNER
Home 3.25
Draw 2.28
Away 2.88
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.46
Under 1.5 2.65
Over 1.75 1.61
Under 1.75 2.30
Over 2.0 1.84
Under 2.0 1.95
Over 2.25 2.18
Under 2.25 1.68
Over 2.5 2.50
Under 2.5 1.50
Over 2.75 3.05
Under 2.75 1.38
Over 3.5 5.00
Under 3.5 1.16
Over 0.5 1.08
Under 0.5 7.50
Over 3.0 4.10
Under 3.0 1.23
Over 4.5 11.00
Under 4.5 1.03

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 14 6 3 40:19 21 48
L D W L W
2 22 13 6 3 44:19 25 45
W W D D W
3 23 12 5 6 31:20 11 41
D W D W W
4 23 10 8 5 34:28 6 38
W D D D D
5 23 10 6 7 32:32 0 36
W W W L W
6 23 8 10 5 32:28 4 34
D D D D D
7 22 9 5 8 27:23 4 32
D L D D W
8 22 9 5 8 30:27 3 32
W D W D W
9 23 8 8 7 25:22 3 32
L W D D W
10 23 8 7 8 28:30 -2 31
D W L D L
11 22 8 6 8 35:34 1 30
L D W D W
12 23 8 5 10 23:33 -10 29
W L L L D
13 22 7 6 9 27:26 1 27
D L D L L
14 22 6 7 9 32:35 -3 25
W L D L W
15 22 6 7 9 24:30 -6 25
L W D L L
16 23 5 9 9 24:28 -4 24
D D D L L
17 22 6 5 11 25:35 -10 23
L L W D W
18 23 5 8 10 27:37 -10 23
D D L W L
19 22 5 7 10 23:34 -11 22
L D D L L
20 22 1 8 13 23:46 -23 11
D L D L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B