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BRAZIL › SERIE A
12.10.2026 19:00
Estádio Couto Pereira
Referee: Matheus Delgado Candancan
Coritiba
Match Timeline
Botafogo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
22'
Marçal
Coritiba
VAR
26'
Danilo dos Santos de Oliveira
Botafogo
⚽
34'
Danilo dos Santos de Oliveira · Assist: Cristian Medina
Botafogo
🟨
45'
Allan
Botafogo
🟨
45+3'
Fabricio Bustos
Coritiba
🟨
45+4'
Sebastián Gómez
Coritiba
🟨
52'
Thiago Santos
Coritiba
🔄
56'
Fabricio Bustos ↔ Tinga
Coritiba
🔄
56'
Thiago Santos ↔ Nicolas Fonseca
Coritiba
🔄
64'
Joaquin Lavega ↔ Breno Lopes
Coritiba
🔄
64'
Felipe Jonatan ↔ Rodrigo Silva Nascimento
Coritiba
🟨
66'
Marçal
Botafogo
🟨
66'
Tiago Coser
Coritiba
🔄
73'
Hakim Ziyech ↔ Júnior Santos
Botafogo
🔄
74'
Allan ↔ domingos andrade
Botafogo
🔄
77'
Cristian Medina ↔ Álvaro Montoro
Botafogo
🔄
77'
Arthur Cabral ↔ Tiquinho Soares
Botafogo
🔄
84'
Josué ↔ Renato Marques
Coritiba
🔄
86'
Matheus Martins ↔ Paulinho
Botafogo
🟨
88'
Rodrigo Silva Nascimento
Coritiba

Coritiba vs Botafogo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70%
Odds 2.70
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.74
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70%
2.70 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.74 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.1%
1.19 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.33 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Coritiba Win 70%
Draw 7.8%
Botafogo Win 22.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Coritiba1.38
Botafogo1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Coritiba Coritiba
WWDLW
37 GF / 47 GA
Botafogo Botafogo
WLDWL
45 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
1.28
Average Goals Scored
1.36
1.62
Average Goals Conceded
1.52
15
BTTS Yes
21
16
Over 2.5
19
3.34
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Coritiba Coritiba 29 matches
Botafogo Botafogo 33 matches
Coritiba Statistic Botafogo
10 Wins 10
8 Draws 9
11 Losses 14
37 Goals For 45
47 Goals Against 50
1.28 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
1.62 Avg Goals Conceded 1.52
15 BTTS Yes 21
22 Over 1.5 26
16 Over 2.5 19
10 Over 3.5 10
6 Clean Sheets 5
9 Failed To Score 9
3.34 Shots On Goal 5
11.1 Total Shots 13.97
3.59 Corners 4.42
40.2% Ball Possession 48.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Botafogo. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Coritiba Analysis

Coritiba are currently 9 in the standings with 38 points from 28 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 8 draws, and 10 losses, while the 37:43 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Breno Lopes (8 goals), Pedro Rocha (6 goals), J. Lavega (5 goals), with creative support from Josué (10 assists), Lucas Ronier (2 assists), Tinga (2 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Botafogo Analysis

Botafogo are currently 12 in the standings with 35 points from 28 matches. The record of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 41:45 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Danilo Santos (7 goals), Arthur Cabral (7 goals), Edenílson (4 goals), with creative support from Alex Telles (4 assists), Álvaro Montoro (3 assists), Danilo Santos (2 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Coritiba won 2 times, Botafogo won 7 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:20 from Coritiba's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.2%)
Predicted formations: Coritiba 4-2-3-1 / Botafogo 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Coritiba 8, Botafogo 2
H2H summary: Coritiba wins 2, draws 6, Botafogo wins 7

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 7 4 58:25 33 64
W D W W W
2 30 18 9 3 52:22 30 63
W W D W D
3 30 15 8 7 49:35 14 53
W D W D L
4 30 14 9 7 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
5 30 13 10 7 44:36 8 49
W L L W W
6 30 14 6 10 46:44 2 48
L W W L W
7 30 13 8 9 41:35 6 47
W D W D W
8 30 11 9 10 46:45 1 42
L D W W W
9 30 11 7 12 38:35 3 40
W D L L D
10 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
11 30 10 9 11 38:48 -10 39
D L L D L
12 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
13 30 9 9 12 43:48 -5 36
D L L W D
14 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
15 30 8 9 13 34:44 -10 33
L D W D W
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 30 7 11 12 33:38 -5 32
D W L W L
18 30 7 10 13 32:40 -8 31
D D D L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 29 3 9 17 30:61 -31 18
L L D L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B