BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira
Referee: A. Daronco
Coritiba
Match Timeline
Bahia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
26'
Tiago Coser
Bahia
🟨
30'
Nicolás Acevedo
Bahia
🔄
45+6'
Leo Vieira ↔ Joao Paulo
Bahia
56'
Bruno Melo · Assist: Josue
Coritiba
🔄
60'
M. Sanabria ↔ Ademir
Bahia
65'
J. Lavega
Coritiba
68'
Breno Lopes · Assist: J. Lavega
Coritiba
🔄
71'
Jean Lucas ↔ Michel Araujo
Bahia
🔄
71'
Erick Pulga ↔ C. Olivera
Bahia
🔄
71'
Willian Jose ↔ Everaldo
Bahia
🟨
76'
Ademir
Bahia
🔄
78'
Thiago Santos ↔ Willian Oliveira
Coritiba
🔄
78'
Joao Pedro Chermont ↔ Lucas Taverna
Coritiba
🔄
78'
J. Lavega ↔ Fabinho
Coritiba
🔄
87'
S. Gomez ↔ Wallisson
Coritiba
🟨
90'
Román Gómez
Bahia
🔄
90+2'
Josue ↔ Vini Paulista
Coritiba
90'
Everaldo · Assist: Everton Ribeiro
Bahia

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 77.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
77.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
17.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.6%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Coritiba Win 46.4%
Draw 22.5%
Bahia Win 31.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Coritiba1.28
Bahia1.29
Recent Form (Last 5)
Coritiba Coritiba
WWDLW
21 GF / 19 GA
Bahia Bahia
WLDWL
23 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.31
Average Goals Scored
1.35
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
1.24
7
BTTS Yes
11
6
Over 2.5
9
3.13
Shots on Goal
4.94

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Coritiba Coritiba 16 matches
Bahia Bahia 17 matches
Coritiba Statistic Bahia
6 Wins 7
5 Draws 5
5 Losses 5
21 Goals For 23
19 Goals Against 21
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 1.35
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 1.24
7 BTTS Yes 11
11 Over 1.5 14
6 Over 2.5 9
4 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 2
3.13 Shots On Goal 4.94
10 Total Shots 12.94
3.19 Corners 5.47
38.4% Ball Possession 54.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Coritiba expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Bahia in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bahia having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Bahia. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Coritiba Analysis

So far, Coritiba have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 23 points from 16 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, while the 21:19 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Breno Lopes (7 goals), J. Lavega (4 goals), Pedro Rocha (4 goals), with creative support from Josué (6 assists), Lucas Ronier (2 assists), Tinga (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Bahia Analysis

Bahia are currently 8 in the standings with 23 points from 15 matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 21:19 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Luciano Juba (7 goals), Everaldo (3 goals), Willian Jose (3 goals), with creative support from Everton Ribeiro (3 assists), Jean Lucas (2 assists), Luciano Juba (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Coritiba won 3 times, Bahia won 4 times, while 8 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:20 from Coritiba's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (77.5%)
Predicted formations: Coritiba 4-2-3-1 / Bahia 4-3-3
Missing players: Coritiba 7, Bahia 6
H2H summary: Coritiba wins 3, draws 8, Bahia wins 4
Stats
Coritiba Coritiba
Bahia Bahia
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
9
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
4
3 Corner Kicks 6
11 Fouls 17
1 Offsides 0
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Goal 1
3 Shots off Goal 9
3 Blocked Shots 4
6 Shots insidebox 8
7 Shots outsidebox 6
0 Goalkeeper Saves 4
336 Total passes 429
269 Passes accurate 350
0.96 expected_goals 1.38
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Coritiba
Formation
Bahia
Pedro Rangel
Pedro Rangel
Joao Pedro Chermont
Joao Pedro Chermont
Tiago Coser
Tiago Coser
Jacy
Jacy
Bruno Melo
Bruno Melo
Thiago Santos
Thiago Santos
S. Gomez
S. Gomez
J. Lavega
🎯
J. Lavega
Josue
🎯
Josue
Breno Lopes
Breno Lopes
Pedro Rocha
Pedro Rocha
Leo Vieira
Leo Vieira
R. Gomez
R. Gomez
David Duarte
David Duarte
Kanu
Kanu
Iago Borduchi
Iago Borduchi
Nicolas Acevedo
Nicolas Acevedo
M. Sanabria
M. Sanabria
Everton Ribeiro
🎯
Everton Ribeiro
Jean Lucas
Jean Lucas
Erick Pulga
Erick Pulga
Willian Jose
Willian Jose
Coritiba 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
22
Pedro Rangel
G
44
Joao Pedro Chermont
↓ 78'
D
23
Tiago Coser
⚽ 26'
D
55
Jacy
D
26
Bruno Melo
⚽ 56'
D
21
Thiago Santos
↓ 78'
M
19
S. Gomez
↓ 87'
M
7
J. Lavega
⚽ 65' 🎯 68' ↓ 78'
M
10
Josue
🎯 56' ↓ 90+2'
M
77
Breno Lopes
⚽ 68'
M
32
Pedro Rocha
F
Substitutes
13
Keiller
G
29
Willian Oliveira
↑ 78'
M
8
Wallisson
↑ 87'
M
6
Felipe Jonatan
D
36
Vini Paulista
↑ 90+2'
F
86
Lucas Taverna
↑ 78'
D
4
Rodrigo Moledo
D
88
Fernando Sobral
M
28
Fabinho
↑ 78'
F
78
Renato Marques
F
39
Gustavo
M
33
D. Alves
F
Bahia 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
22
Leo Vieira
↓ 45+6'
G
31
R. Gomez
🟨 90'
D
33
David Duarte
D
4
Kanu
D
25
Iago Borduchi
D
5
Nicolas Acevedo
🟨 30'
M
23
M. Sanabria
↓ 60'
M
10
Everton Ribeiro
🎯 90'
M
6
Jean Lucas
↓ 71'
M
16
Erick Pulga
↓ 71'
M
12
Willian Jose
↓ 71'
F
Substitutes
34
Joao Paulo
↑ 45+6'
G
7
Ademir
↑ 60' 🟨 76'
F
15
Michel Araujo
↑ 71'
M
99
C. Olivera
↑ 71'
F
8
Caio Alexandre
M
2
Gilberto
D
27
Everaldo
⚽ 90' ↑ 71'
F
3
Gabriel Xavier
D
21
S. Ramos
D
44
Marcos Victor
D
66
Ze Guilherme
D
63
David Martins
M
Last matches: Coritiba
30.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Flamengo
0
3
L
17.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Santos
3
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Internacional
2
2
D
02.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Vitoria
1
4
L
26.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Gremio
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
2
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Botafogo
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Fluminense
1
1
D
01.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
22.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Atletico Paranaense
0
2
L
18.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Mirassol
1
0
W
15.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Remo
1
0
W
12.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Corinthians
2
0
W
25.02.26
Ser
Coritiba
Sao Paulo
0
1
L
11.02.26
Ser
Coritiba
Chapecoense-sc
3
3
D
06.02.26
Ser
Coritiba
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
28.01.26
Ser
Coritiba
RB Bragantino
0
1
L
Last matches: Bahia
04.07.26
Fri
Bahia
Atletico Torque
4
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Botafogo
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Gremio
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Cruzeiro
1
2
L
03.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Sao Paulo
2
2
D
25.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Santos
2
2
D
19.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Flamengo
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Mirassol
2
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Palmeiras
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Atletico Paranaense
3
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Remo
1
4
L
18.03.26
Ser
Bahia
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
15.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Internacional
1
0
W
11.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Vitoria
1
1
D
25.02.26
CON
Bahia
O'Higgins
2
1
W
18.02.26
CON
Bahia
O'Higgins
0
1
L
12.02.26
Ser
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
05.02.26
Ser
Bahia
Fluminense
1
1
D
28.01.26
Ser
Bahia
Corinthians
2
1
W
H2H: Coritiba vs Bahia
25.05.26
H2H
Coritiba
Bahia
3
2
W
14.09.23
H2H
Coritiba
Bahia
2
4
L
07.05.23
H2H
Bahia
Coritiba
3
1
L
16.11.20
H2H
Coritiba
Bahia
1
2
L
12.08.20
H2H
Bahia
Coritiba
1
0
L
30.09.17
H2H
Bahia
Coritiba
1
1
D
15.06.17
H2H
Coritiba
Bahia
0
0
D
07.12.14
H2H
Coritiba
Bahia
3
2
W
07.09.14
H2H
Bahia
Coritiba
0
0
D
15.09.13
H2H
Coritiba
Bahia
2
2
D
30.05.13
H2H
Bahia
Coritiba
0
0
D
14.10.12
H2H
Coritiba
Bahia
2
1
W
22.07.12
H2H
Bahia
Coritiba
2
2
D
16.10.11
H2H
Coritiba
Bahia
0
0
D
24.07.11
H2H
Bahia
Coritiba
0
0
D
Last matches: Coritiba
09.05.26
Ser
Coritiba
Internacional
2
2
D
19.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Atletico-MG
2
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Fluminense
1
1
D
01.04.26
Ser
Coritiba
Vasco DA Gama
1
1
D
15.03.26
Ser
Coritiba
Remo
1
0
W
25.02.26
Ser
Coritiba
Sao Paulo
0
1
L
28.01.26
Ser
Coritiba
RB Bragantino
0
1
L
H2H at home: Coritiba
25.05.26
H2H
Coritiba
Bahia
3
2
W
14.09.23
H2H
Coritiba
Bahia
2
4
L
16.11.20
H2H
Coritiba
Bahia
1
2
L
15.06.17
H2H
Coritiba
Bahia
0
0
D
07.12.14
H2H
Coritiba
Bahia
3
2
W
15.09.13
H2H
Coritiba
Bahia
2
2
D
14.10.12
H2H
Coritiba
Bahia
2
1
W
16.10.11
H2H
Coritiba
Bahia
0
0
D
Last matches: Bahia
03.05.26
Ser
Bahia
Sao Paulo
2
2
D
19.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Flamengo
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Bahia
Mirassol
2
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Remo
1
4
L
15.03.26
Ser
Bahia
Internacional
1
0
W
18.02.26
CON
Bahia
O'Higgins
0
1
L
12.02.26
Ser
Bahia
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
28.01.26
Ser
Bahia
Corinthians
2
1
W
H2H away: Bahia
25.05.26
H2H
Coritiba
Bahia
3
2
L
14.09.23
H2H
Coritiba
Bahia
2
4
W
16.11.20
H2H
Coritiba
Bahia
1
2
W
15.06.17
H2H
Coritiba
Bahia
0
0
D
07.12.14
H2H
Coritiba
Bahia
3
2
L
15.09.13
H2H
Coritiba
Bahia
2
2
D
14.10.12
H2H
Coritiba
Bahia
2
1
L
16.10.11
H2H
Coritiba
Bahia
0
0
D

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 12 5 1 30:13 17 41
?
2 17 10 4 3 31:16 15 34
?
3 18 9 4 5 28:23 5 31
?
4 18 9 3 6 24:18 6 30
?
5 18 9 2 7 25:19 6 29
?
6
Bahia Away
17 7 5 5 25:23 2 26
?
7 18 7 5 6 24:24 0 26
?
8 18 7 4 7 23:20 3 25
?
9 18 7 3 8 22:23 -1 24
?
10 18 6 6 6 18:19 -1 24
?
11 18 6 6 6 24:28 -4 24
?
12 17 6 4 7 31:31 0 22
?
13 17 6 4 7 21:25 -4 22
?
14 18 5 6 7 21:22 -1 21
?
15 18 5 6 7 26:29 -3 21
?
16 18 5 6 7 20:23 -3 21
?
17 18 5 5 8 22:29 -7 20
?
18 18 4 6 8 21:29 -8 18
?
19 17 4 4 9 18:24 -6 16
?
20 17 1 6 10 17:33 -16 9
?
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Coritiba 7 missing
-
Maicon
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
Pedro Morisco
Missing Fixture Shoulder Injury
OUT
-
Rodrigo Rodrigues
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
Keno
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Thiago Santos
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
Lucas Ronier
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
Tinga
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT
Bahia 6 missing
-
Ruan Pablo
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
Ronaldo Strada
Missing Fixture Shoulder Injury
OUT
-
Caio Alexandre
Questionable Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
Erick
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
Rodrigo
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
Luciano Juba
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT