BRAZIL SERIE A
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Neo Quimica Arena
Referee: W. do Nascimento

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.9%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Corinthians Win 66.9%
Draw 9.4%
Chapecoense-sc Win 23.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Corinthians1.44
Chapecoense-sc1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Corinthians Corinthians
WWDLW
36 GF / 30 GA
Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc
WLDWL
27 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
1.06
Average Goals Scored
1.08
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
2
15
BTTS Yes
16
9
Over 2.5
14
3.76
Shots on Goal
3.54

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Corinthians Corinthians 34 matches
Chapecoense-sc Chapecoense-sc 25 matches
Corinthians Statistic Chapecoense-sc
12 Wins 3
12 Draws 8
10 Losses 14
36 Goals For 27
30 Goals Against 50
1.06 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 2
15 BTTS Yes 16
23 Over 1.5 22
9 Over 2.5 14
4 Over 3.5 9
15 Clean Sheets 2
9 Failed To Score 8
3.76 Shots On Goal 3.54
11.97 Total Shots 13.13
4.73 Corners 4.04
55.8% Ball Possession 42.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Corinthians's more proactive style and Chapecoense-sc's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Corinthians expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Chapecoense-sc in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Chapecoense-sc having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Corinthians arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 10 with 32 points compared to Chapecoense-sc in 20 on 14, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Chapecoense-sc. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Corinthians Analysis

Corinthians sit 10 with 32 points after 24 league matches. The record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 26:24 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Rodrigo Garro (3 goals), Yuri Alberto (3 goals), André Luiz (3 goals), with creative support from Rodrigo Garro (6 assists), Yuri Alberto (2 assists), André Luiz (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Chapecoense-sc Analysis

Chapecoense-sc approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 20 with 14 points from 23 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 8 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 24:46 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Marcinho (3 goals), Walter Clar (3 goals), Jean Carlos (2 goals), with creative support from Giovanni Augusto (3 assists), Bruno Pacheco (3 assists), Jean Carlos (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Corinthians won 9 times, Chapecoense-sc won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:5 from Corinthians's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.6%)
Predicted formations: Corinthians 4-2-3-1 / Chapecoense-sc 4-4-2
H2H summary: Corinthians wins 9, draws 4, Chapecoense-sc wins 2

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 7 3 45:21 24 52
D W L D W
2 24 14 6 4 48:21 27 48
W L W W D
3 25 13 6 6 37:25 12 45
D W D W D
4 25 11 9 5 39:32 7 42
D W W D D
5 25 10 10 5 37:30 7 40
W W D D D
6 25 11 6 8 35:36 -1 39
L W W W W
7 24 10 6 8 32:28 4 36
W D W D W
8 24 10 5 9 29:25 4 35
L W D L D
9 24 9 7 8 30:31 -1 34
W D W L D
10 25 8 8 9 26:25 1 32
L L L W D
11 24 8 6 10 29:28 1 30
W L D L D
12 24 8 6 10 37:40 -3 30
L L L D W
13 25 8 5 12 24:37 -13 29
L L W L L
14 24 7 8 9 34:36 -2 29
W D W L D
15 24 7 7 10 27:32 -5 28
W L L W D
16 24 6 7 11 27:37 -10 25
D D L L W
17 24 6 7 11 27:39 -12 25
W L L D D
18 25 5 10 10 26:31 -5 25
L D D D D
19 24 5 8 11 28:39 -11 23
L D D L W
20 24 2 8 14 25:49 -24 14
L W D L D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B