BRAZIL SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Neo Quimica Arena
Referee: P. Zanovelli

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.6%
Odds 1.93
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 2.20
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 2.53
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.6%
1.93
BTTS Yes
78.8%
2.20
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
2.53
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.24
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.20
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Corinthians Win 54.6%
Draw 4.5%
Atletico Paranaense Win 41%
Expected Goals (xG)
Corinthians1.09
Atletico Paranaense1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
Corinthians Corinthians
WWDLW
31 GF / 25 GA
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
WLDWL
29 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.15
Average Goals Scored
1.32
0.93
Average Goals Conceded
1
13
BTTS Yes
11
7
Over 2.5
10
3.92
Shots on Goal
4.7

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Corinthians Corinthians 27 matches
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 22 matches
Corinthians Statistic Atletico Paranaense
10 Wins 11
10 Draws 3
7 Losses 8
31 Goals For 29
25 Goals Against 22
1.15 Avg Goals Scored 1.32
0.93 Avg Goals Conceded 1
13 BTTS Yes 11
20 Over 1.5 15
7 Over 2.5 10
4 Over 3.5 3
11 Clean Sheets 6
6 Failed To Score 6
3.92 Shots On Goal 4.7
12.08 Total Shots 12.25
4.62 Corners 4.95
56.2% Ball Possession 47.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Atletico Paranaense's more proactive style and Corinthians's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Atletico Paranaense. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Corinthians expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Atletico Paranaense in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico Paranaense having the stronger overall control.

Corinthians Analysis

From their first 18 matches, Corinthians have collected 24 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. Their overall return of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 18:19 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by André Luiz (3 goals), Rodrigo Garro (2 goals), Matheus Bidu (2 goals), with creative support from Rodrigo Garro (6 assists), Yuri Alberto (2 assists), Matheus Bidu (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atletico Paranaense Analysis

Placed 5 with 30 points from 18 outings, Atletico Paranaense continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 24:18 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Kevin Viveros (11 goals), Steven Mendoza (4 goals), Julimar (3 goals), with creative support from Gastón Benavídez (5 assists), Lucas Esquivel (3 assists), João Cruz (3 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Corinthians won 10 times, Atletico Paranaense won 1 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:11 from Corinthians's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.5%)
Predicted formations: Corinthians 4-2-3-1 / Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Corinthians 8, Atletico Paranaense 5
H2H summary: Corinthians wins 10, draws 4, Atletico Paranaense wins 1
Last matches: Corinthians
26.07.26
Ser
Corinthians
Bahia
1
1
D
23.07.26
Ser
Corinthians
Remo
3
0
W
12.07.26
Fri
Corinthians
Cascavel
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Corinthians
Gremio
3
1
W
28.05.26
CON
Corinthians
Platense
0
2
L
24.05.26
Ser
Corinthians
Atletico-MG
1
0
W
22.05.26
CON
Corinthians
Penarol
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Corinthians
Botafogo
1
3
L
10.05.26
Ser
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
3
2
W
07.05.26
CON
Corinthians
Santa Fe
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Corinthians
Mirassol
1
2
L
01.05.26
CON
Corinthians
Penarol
2
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Corinthians
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Corinthians
Vitoria
0
0
D
16.04.26
CON
Corinthians
Santa Fe
2
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Corinthians
Palmeiras
0
0
D
10.04.26
CON
Corinthians
Platense
2
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Corinthians
Internacional
0
1
L
02.04.26
Ser
Corinthians
Fluminense
1
3
L
22.03.26
Ser
Corinthians
Flamengo
1
1
D
Last matches: Atletico Paranaense
25.07.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Internacional
2
0
W
23.07.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
2
L
09.07.26
Fri
Atletico Paranaense
Boca Juniors
0
1
L
30.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Mirassol
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Remo
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Flamengo
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Vitoria
3
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Palmeiras
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Chapecoense-sc
2
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico-MG
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Bahia
0
3
L
29.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Botafogo
4
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Coritiba
2
0
W
18.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Cruzeiro
2
1
W
15.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
2
3
L
25.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
19.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
0
1
L
H2H: Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense
19.02.26
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
0
1
W
11.09.25
H2H
Corinthians
Atletico Paranaense
2
0
W
28.08.25
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
0
1
W
17.10.24
H2H
Corinthians
Atletico Paranaense
5
2
W
23.06.24
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
1
1
D
01.11.23
H2H
Corinthians
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
24.06.23
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
1
0
L
09.10.22
H2H
Corinthians
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
16.06.22
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
1
1
D
28.11.21
H2H
Corinthians
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
22.08.21
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
0
1
W
11.02.21
H2H
Corinthians
Atletico Paranaense
3
3
D
15.10.20
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
0
1
W
10.10.19
H2H
Corinthians
Atletico Paranaense
2
2
D
19.05.19
H2H
Atletico Paranaense
Corinthians
0
2
W
Last matches: Corinthians
23.07.26
Ser
Corinthians
Remo
3
0
W
28.05.26
CON
Corinthians
Platense
0
2
L
24.05.26
Ser
Corinthians
Atletico-MG
1
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Corinthians
Sao Paulo
3
2
W
01.05.26
CON
Corinthians
Penarol
2
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Corinthians
Vasco DA Gama
1
0
W
16.04.26
CON
Corinthians
Santa Fe
2
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Corinthians
Palmeiras
0
0
D
05.04.26
Ser
Corinthians
Internacional
0
1
L
22.03.26
Ser
Corinthians
Flamengo
1
1
D
12.03.26
Ser
Corinthians
Coritiba
0
2
L
12.02.26
Ser
Corinthians
RB Bragantino
2
0
W
28.01.26
Ser
Corinthians
Bahia
1
2
L
H2H at home: Corinthians
11.09.25
H2H
Corinthians
Atletico Paranaense
2
0
W
17.10.24
H2H
Corinthians
Atletico Paranaense
5
2
W
01.11.23
H2H
Corinthians
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
09.10.22
H2H
Corinthians
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
W
28.11.21
H2H
Corinthians
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
11.02.21
H2H
Corinthians
Atletico Paranaense
3
3
D
10.10.19
H2H
Corinthians
Atletico Paranaense
2
2
D
Last matches: Atletico Paranaense
23.07.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Sao Paulo
2
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
2
L
09.07.26
Fri
Atletico Paranaense
Boca Juniors
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Remo
2
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Vasco DA Gama
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Palmeiras
0
1
L
05.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico-MG
1
2
L
01.04.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Bahia
0
3
L
15.03.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Fluminense
2
3
L
25.02.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
RB Bragantino
1
1
D
28.01.26
Ser
Atletico Paranaense
Internacional
1
0
W
H2H away: Atletico Paranaense
11.09.25
H2H
Corinthians
Atletico Paranaense
2
0
L
17.10.24
H2H
Corinthians
Atletico Paranaense
5
2
L
01.11.23
H2H
Corinthians
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
L
09.10.22
H2H
Corinthians
Atletico Paranaense
2
1
L
28.11.21
H2H
Corinthians
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
L
11.02.21
H2H
Corinthians
Atletico Paranaense
3
3
D
10.10.19
H2H
Corinthians
Atletico Paranaense
2
2
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.56
Draw 3.29
Home 1.93
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.37
Draw 2.04
Home 2.71
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.10
Over 1.5 1.50
Over 1.75 1.63
Over 2.0 1.88
Over 2.25 2.20
Over 2.5 2.53
Over 3.5 4.95
Under 0.5 7.32
Under 1.5 2.68
Under 1.75 2.33
Under 2.0 1.99
Under 2.25 1.70
Under 2.5 1.54
Under 3.5 1.19
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.50
Draw 3.20
Home 1.91
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 2.00
Home 2.62
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.33
Draw 2.20
Home 2.30
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.10
Over 1.5 1.50
Over 2.5 2.50
Over 3.5 5.00
Over 4.5 11.00
Over 5.5 23.00
Over 6.5 51.00
Under 0.5 7.00
Under 1.5 2.62
Under 2.5 1.50
Under 3.5 1.17
Under 4.5 1.05
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.46
Draw 3.29
Home 1.95
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.15
Draw 1.92
Home 2.57
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.65
Draw 2.23
Home 2.27
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 0.75 1.06
Over 1.0 1.08
Over 1.25 1.25
Over 1.5 1.42
Over 1.75 1.57
Over 2.0 1.78
Over 2.25 2.18
Over 2.5 2.50
Over 2.75 2.88
Over 3.0 3.78
Over 3.25 4.27
Over 3.5 4.65
Over 3.75 6.04
Over 4.0 9.10
Over 4.25 8.60
Over 4.5 10.00
Over 5.5 19.00
Over 6.5 50.00
Under 0.5 6.95
Under 0.75 6.25
Under 1.0 5.50
Under 1.25 3.28
Under 1.5 2.51
Under 1.75 2.20
Under 2.0 1.89
Under 2.25 1.72
Under 2.5 1.56
Under 2.75 1.34
Under 3.0 1.21
Under 3.25 1.15
Under 3.5 1.13
Under 3.75 1.06
Under 4.0 1.00
Under 4.25 1.01
Under 4.5 1.01
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.35
Draw 3.15
Home 1.94
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.80
Draw 1.98
Home 2.65
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.20
Draw 2.30
Home 2.38
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.08
Over 1.5 1.47
Over 1.75 1.63
Over 2.0 1.87
Over 2.25 2.20
Over 2.5 2.55
Over 2.75 3.05
Over 3.0 4.10
Over 3.5 5.10
Over 4.5 11.00
Under 0.5 7.00
Under 1.5 2.60
Under 1.75 2.28
Under 2.0 1.92
Under 2.25 1.66
Under 2.5 1.50
Under 2.75 1.37
Under 3.0 1.23
Under 3.5 1.15
Under 4.5 1.03

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 13 5 2 34:16 18 44
L W W W D
2 20 11 6 3 37:18 19 39
D D W W L
3 20 11 3 6 28:19 9 36
W W W W D
4 20 9 6 5 30:25 5 33
D D D L W
5 20 9 4 7 26:20 6 31
D D W W W
6 20 8 7 5 29:25 4 31
D D W W L
7 20 8 5 7 34:32 2 29
W D W L D
8 20 8 4 8 25:25 0 28
W D W L W
9 20 7 7 6 22:20 2 28
D W W W L
10 20 7 6 7 25:27 -2 27
D L L W W
11 20 7 6 7 26:30 -4 27
L W D W D
12 20 7 5 8 25:23 2 26
D L L D L
13 20 7 5 8 22:27 -5 26
L D W L W
14 20 6 5 9 23:27 -4 23
W D W L W
15 20 5 7 8 29:33 -4 22
D L W L L
16 21 5 7 9 23:27 -4 22
D L L L L
17 20 5 7 8 22:26 -4 22
D L L W D
18 20 5 6 9 23:31 -8 21
D L L L L
19 21 5 6 10 24:34 -10 21
L W L W L
20 20 1 7 12 19:41 -22 10
?
LIBC CL group stage
LIBC Play-offs
Copa Sudamericana Group Stage
Relegation

Missing Players

Corinthians 8 missing
-
F. Angileri
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
Hugo
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Matheus Bidu
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
Alex Santana
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT
-
M. Depay
Missing Fixture Rest
OUT
-
Kayke
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Vitinho
Missing Fixture Hip Injury
OUT
-
Yuri Alberto
Questionable Injury
OUT
Atletico Paranaense 5 missing
-
Mycael
Missing Fixture Leg Injury
OUT
-
Felipinho
Questionable Muscle Injury
OUT
-
A. Garcia Castillo
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
B. Zapelli
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
Dantas
Missing Fixture Suspended
OUT