COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
05.09.2026 21:00
Estadio La Independencia
Referee: Andres Rojas
Chico
Match Timeline
Once Caldas
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
2'
S. Mera · Assist: S. Salazar
Chico
🟨
19'
Santiago Mera
Chico
VAR
34'
Jefry Zapata
Once Caldas
🟨
36'
Jacobo Pimentel
Chico
VAR
45+3'
Felipe Cifuentes
Chico
45'
F. Cifuentes
Chico
🔄
46'
S. Mera ↔ Y. Cabrera
Chico
🔄
46'
P. Gomez ↔ M. Zuleta
Once Caldas
🟥
57'
Cristian Blanco
Chico
VAR
57'
Cristian Blanco
Chico
🔄
58'
J. Patino ↔ A. Correa
Once Caldas
🔄
58'
A. Roa ↔ J. Quinones
Once Caldas
🔄
60'
J. Pimentel ↔ D. Polanco
Chico
VAR
66'
Mateo Zuleta
Once Caldas
🟥
67'
Mateo Zuleta
Once Caldas
🔄
69'
F. Cifuentes ↔ S. Viveros
Chico
🔄
71'
J. A. Zapata Ramirez ↔ H. Guzman
Once Caldas
🔄
72'
M. Barrios ↔ E. Torres
Once Caldas
🟨
75'
Jader Quinones
Once Caldas
🟨
76'
Sebastian Salazar
Chico
🟨
90'
Andres Correa
Once Caldas
🔄
90+2'
↔ A. Maya
Chico

Chico vs Once Caldas Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 95.9%
Odds 1.30
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds 2.13
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
95.9%
1.30
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.91
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
2.13
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.8%
1.83
HT / FT Home / Home
-
7.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
15.00
Probability Distribution
Chico Win 47.5%
Draw 4.1%
Once Caldas Win 48.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Chico0.88
Once Caldas1.66
Recent Form (Last 5)
Chico Chico
WWDLW
17 GF / 44 GA
Once Caldas Once Caldas
WLDWL
45 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
0.71
Average Goals Scored
1.55
1.83
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
5
BTTS Yes
22
11
Over 2.5
13
2.96
Shots on Goal
5.59

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Chico Chico 24 matches
Once Caldas Once Caldas 29 matches
Chico Statistic Once Caldas
5 Wins 10
4 Draws 15
15 Losses 4
17 Goals For 45
44 Goals Against 33
0.71 Avg Goals Scored 1.55
1.83 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
5 BTTS Yes 22
16 Over 1.5 24
11 Over 2.5 13
6 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 5
15 Failed To Score 4
2.96 Shots On Goal 5.59
9.63 Total Shots 14.85
3.67 Corners 5.15
44.9% Ball Possession 53.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Once Caldas's more proactive style and Chico's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Chico have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Once Caldas carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 33 points while Chico sit 18 on 17, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Once Caldas.

Chico Analysis

With 17 points from 19 games and a place of 18, Chico still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 12 defeats with a 15:32 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Once Caldas Analysis

Once Caldas arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 33 points after 19 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 9 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 31:22 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Andrés Roa (2 goals), Jefry Zapata (2 goals), Dayro Moreno (2 goals), with creative support from Juan David Cuesta (3 assists), Andrés Roa (1 assists), Michael Barrios (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 6 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Chico won 2 times, Once Caldas won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:25 from Chico's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.79 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.9%)
Predicted formations: Chico 4-1-4-1 / Once Caldas 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Chico wins 2, draws 5, Once Caldas wins 7

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W W W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
W L D D L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
W W D L D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
D L W D W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L W L L W
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
D L L W W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W W D W D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
L L W D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W W D D L
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W W D D L
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
D L W W L
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D L D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D W D D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
L D D L D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L W W L L
18
Chico Home
19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L L W W D
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
L L D L W
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D L D L W
Post season qualification