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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA A
23.10.2026 23:00
Estadio La Independencia

Chico vs Bucaramanga Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 52.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
52.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
70.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Chico Win 35.5%
Draw 11.9%
Bucaramanga Win 52.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Chico0.91
Bucaramanga1.58
Recent Form (Last 5)
Chico Chico
WWDLW
26 GF / 55 GA
Bucaramanga Bucaramanga
WLDWL
49 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
0.81
Average Goals Scored
1.48
1.72
Average Goals Conceded
1.06
8
BTTS Yes
20
16
Over 2.5
16
2.91
Shots on Goal
4.03

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Chico Chico 32 matches
Bucaramanga Bucaramanga 33 matches
Chico Statistic Bucaramanga
8 Wins 11
5 Draws 15
19 Losses 7
26 Goals For 49
55 Goals Against 35
0.81 Avg Goals Scored 1.48
1.72 Avg Goals Conceded 1.06
8 BTTS Yes 20
22 Over 1.5 27
16 Over 2.5 16
7 Over 3.5 10
8 Clean Sheets 10
18 Failed To Score 8
2.91 Shots On Goal 4.03
9.31 Total Shots 12.22
4.06 Corners 3.66
44.6% Ball Possession 48%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Bucaramanga's more proactive style and Chico's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Bucaramanga. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Chico have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Chico expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Bucaramanga in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Bucaramanga having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Chico Analysis

With 17 points from 19 games and a place of 18, Chico still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 2 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 15:32 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Jairo Molina (4 goals), S. Mera (3 goals), Arlen Banguero (2 goals), with creative support from S. Mera (2 assists), D. Ramírez (2 assists), Y. Cabrera (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Bucaramanga Analysis

Bucaramanga sit 13 with 23 points after 19 league matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 8 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 26:20 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by L. Pons (11 goals), E. Batalla (11 goals), F. Sambueza (5 goals), with creative support from F. Sambueza (7 assists), L. Pons (5 assists), E. Batalla (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Chico won 4 times, Bucaramanga won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:22 from Chico's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.43 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.1%)
Predicted formations: Chico 4-4-2 / Bucaramanga 5-3-2
H2H summary: Chico wins 4, draws 4, Bucaramanga wins 6

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W D W D L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
D D D L L
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L W W D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
D L W W D
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
W W D L L
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L L D D D
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
L W W L W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D D L L
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
D D W W W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W D D D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W L D L
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
W D D W L
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
D D W W W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
W L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D D L D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
L W L L L
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
D L W L W
18
Chico Home
19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L L D W L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
W W W L L
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D D L L D
Post season qualification